George Will Blithely Assumes Nikki Haley Would Defeat Biden in November – I Disagree

George Will has once again demonstrated the fact that style triumphs over substance in his political writing.

While I applaud his joining the ranks of “Never Trumpers” and voting for President Biden in 2020, his distain of Trump obscures but does not alter the fact that Will is a dyed in the wool Republican Party shill Wikipedia.

“Will is a libertarian-style conservative who supports deregulation and low taxes as he thinks these stimulate economic growth and are more morally fair. He was opposed to both George W. Bush and Barack Obama’s stimulus plans. Will supports abolishing the minimum wage and creating voluntary personal retirement accounts in order to reduce the federal cost of Social Security.

Will opposes attempts to regulate campaign funding, arguing that any such legislation is unconstitutional and would unfairly favor incumbent politicians. Additionally, he contends that spending money is a form of free speech and political participation. By giving the government power to regulate speech, Will believes that this will make the government “even bigger.” Instead, he believes that we need “more speech, advocating less government” in order to reduce the importance of politics in our lives, thus indirectly reducing political spending.”

Will was also among the most strident defenders of George W. Bush’s misadventure in Iraq in 2003.

But he is a fine writer of prose and if he only wrote about baseball, instead of foisting his wrongheadedness about politics he would probably have had a more satisfying career as a sports writer and done much less damage to the nation:

“It was October baseball at its best, played in the lengthening shadows of late afternoon and in the shadow cast by the long season that had led to this dramatic moment. An autumnal sense of winding down pervaded Baltimore’s Camden Yards, with the light and warmth of summer seeping away amid hints of winter. The lights were on and so were sweaters and game six of the American League Championship Series was scoreless in the bottom of the seventh inning.

During the 1997 regular season the Orioles had become only the third “wire to wire” team in American League history — in first place from game 1 through game 162. But the Indians were leading the Series three games to two when shortstop Mike Bordick led off the seventh for the Orioles with a single. The next batter was Brady Anderson, who, on the first pitch, squared as though to bunt, but took a breaking ball for ball one. He did not want to bunt, but he wanted the Indians’ pitcher, Charles Nagy, and catcher, Sandy Alomar, to think he might be bunting and to pitch to him with that in mind. Perhaps they did. The next pitch was a high fastball, a pitch easier to hit than to bunt. Anderson slapped it into right for a single. Bordick stopped at second.“

But George insists on writing bad political takes in the clean and concise stylings that have made him a mainstay of conservative opinion.

In yesterday’s Washington Post Will contends that drumpf’s win in the South Carolina Republican Primary was less than overwhelming and on that point he is right.

But then he veers into error again, assuming that Republicans might yet correct course and back Nikki Haley on Super Tuesday and furthermore that she could easily defeat Biden:

“Donald Trump’s handlers handled him well Saturday night. By sending him out for his victory remarks minutes after South Carolina’s polls closed, they prevented him from emitting the sort of long, bilious snarl that was his response to hearing, immediately after he won in New Hampshire, Nikki Haley’s feisty vow to continue competing.

After basking in the adoration of South Carolina’s officialdom, arrayed behind him like third-graders singled out as teacher’s pets, Trump departed before he learned the fact that the high voter turnout had foretold: His win was less “gigantic” than he had promised. In November 2016, he carried South Carolina with 54.9 percent and in 2020 with 55.1. On Saturday, in a primary in which mostly Republicans participated, he received only 59.8 percent…

… Brookings Institution scholars William A. Galston and Elaine Kamarck write at the Progressive Policy Institute that in the 17 elections from 1920 to 1984, 10 winners achieved a popular-vote victory margin of at least 10 points, and five achieved at least 20 points. In the nine elections from 1988 to 2020, no winner had even a 10-point victory margin. This year, Haley probably would achieve such a margin. And it is highly probable that Trump would lose the popular vote for a third time.”

Will bases his baseless assumption that Haley would handily defeat the President in November in some witless notions of gender solidarity:

“Furthermore, it is pertinent that in 2020 women outvoted men by 4 to 6 percent. According to the AP VoteCast survey, women favored Biden 55 percent to 44 percent; according to Edison data, 57 percent to 42 percent. Women provided Biden’s narrow margin of victory.”

Leaving aside the fact that even if Haley were to somehow secure the nomination, Trump’s MAGA base, which comprises well over 60% of Republican voters would be enraged and many would not show up to vote in the general election, I find no reason to believe that women would turn to a Republican candidate who supports her party’s jihad on reproductive and family planning rights.

In the parlance of Will’s favorite sport, I think the mighty George Will has struck out with this one.