For Ukraine, Phase One Is Over. Phase Two Will Be Far Different

You know, if I was Vladimir Putin, I’d execute a bunch of generals and aides, claim to the nation that they lied their asses off about how bad they were fucking up, and call it a day.

But he can’t. His ego and Napoleon Complex won’t let him. Also, Putin has so badly fucked up the Russian economy for the next decade at least that, if he doesn’t come out with something that he can at least call a victory, we’ll wake up one morning to the news that Putin had slipped in the shower and cracked his skull.

It turned out that the Russians were even worse off than I thought. In a recent article I wrote that, whether a controlled retreat of a rout, the object was to get back far enough, fast enough to get out from under fire. And reconstitute your broken units to once again create a united front from which to return to the battle. But the Russians couldn’t be bothered with that shit. They’re such craven chickenshit cowards that they skedaddled all the way back over the borders of Russia and Belarus, gambling that the Ukrainians wouldn’t follow.

And so, phase one of the Russian invasion, the initial invasion and assault, is over. But because Putin PR’d himself into a corner with his own people, he can’t just walk away, sign a quickie peace deal with Zelensky to vacate the rest of the country, and maybe hold out for a Ukrainian pledge to change the constitution to reject joining NATO. He has to get something positive out of this, or he becomes a negative.

And so, there will be a phase two, likely in a matter of 4-6 weeks. But here’s a newsflash for you, it isn’t going to go any better for Putin, in fact it might well get worse. There are several reasons for this, which we’ll go over here.

First of all, the majority of the Russian forces in Ukraine are out of the fight for likely the next 4-6 weeks, allegedly to retool and reequip. There’s the first problem right there. According to military expert estimates, Russia already has slightly more than 50% of their total ground force availability and equipment tied up in Ukraine. And already, at the halftime break, a good portion of that equipment is either rusting on the roadsides, town streets and fields of Ukraine, or is busy being driven around with Ukrainian drivers with a white O painted on the side to indicate a vehicle under friendly control. What do they re tool and re-equip with? Their shit is spread out all over Russian bases in 11 different time zones. When Putin decided to pull forces and equipment out of Russian bases in Georgia to bolster up his Ukraine forces, Russian generals worried, with good reason that, as poorly as they were doing in Ukraine, and with fewer forces in Georgia, Georgia may mass up and try to drive the russians out.

But while Putin and the Russians are using tin snips and blowtorches to try to put their shit back together again, they’re not the only ones copping a break. The Ukrainian heroes are also finally able to be able to take a breath, and resupply and reintegrate their forces. But unlike Putin and Russia, Ukraine has a Daddy Warbucks with deep supplies and pockets to get them back up to snuff. And there is a shitload of news on that front.

It was reported on MSNBC yesterday that the Pentagon has retooled it’s restrictions, and what used to be called offensive weapons, such as tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery will start to arrive in 4-10 days. It was reported today that the mother lode of 100 switchblade suicide drones, capable of taking out tanks and artillery have already arrived in the Ukraine, and they came with a gift. Namely 12 Ukrainian soldiers, already in the US for training when Ukraine was invaded. While they were here, they were fully trained up on how to operate the drones. They accompanied the drones back to Ukraine. And not only are they fully qualified to operate the drones, they are qualified to train other Ukrainians on how to use them.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken told MSNBC’s Andrea Mitchell today that within days, the Ukrainians will have 10 anti tank missiles for every Russian tank on the ground in Ukraine. These missiles are what the Ukrainians used to help to stall the initial Russian drive on Kyiv. And Biden announced he had signed another $100 million in discretionary spending for arms for Ukraine. And all of it will be for ground based anti aircraft and missile defense systems.

Which is going to be critical because we already know what happens next! We know this because dumbfucks like Putin and the Kremlin have already told us what they’re going to do next! And what they’re going to do next, once they finish body shopping their units back into shape, is to head around, concentrate on the Donbas region, and try to carth the Ukrainian forces in a pincers movement. I can tell you from personal experience that there’s nothing like knowing what the enemy is going to do next.

But it’s going to be a long, slow slog. Because the Russians don’t want to cross back over the Russian-Belarus border again, and have to fight their way through the Ukrainian meat grinder to get there. Which means that they’re going to have to skirt almost half of Ukraine on their own side of the border for safety, before finally crossing the border back into Ukraine in the Donbas region to rejoin the battle. Which means that US intelligence resources like drones, spy planes, and satellites can track their movements. So much for surprise.

But what happens when they finally get there? Oh, I don’t know, how about complete annihilation? When they wheel back into Ukraine, they will be facing a Ukrainian army that is well rested, completely rearmed and resupplied, with 10 anti tank rockets for every Russian tank, and hundreds of anti air batteries to knock Russian aircraft, attack helicopters, and cheap ass Russian missiles out of the sky. That battle will be vicious, ugly, and brutal, but considering the fact that the Ukrainians are fighting for their country and liberty, and with the wind in their sails, and the Russians don’t know what the fuck they’re fighting for, I have a pretty good idea of how this will come out.

One more thing before I take my leave. When this is all over and done with, and when historians start to memorialize it, I think we’re going to find a critical difference that led to the Ukrainian victory. And here it is. There have been at least 8 senior Russian generals that have been killed in combat in the first 41 days of the invasion. This is because the Russians have a top heavy military chain of command. They don’t have Lieutenants, Sargeants, and corporals to assume local command of troops. This means that when the shit goes south, the generals have no choice but to go to the front and take command. And get killed.

After the Russian invasion of Crimea in 2014, the US didn’t just send defensive arms and tactical support to Ukraine, they also trained the Ukrainian army. Ukrainian soldiers traveled to the US for tactical and combat command training. The Ukrainian army is modeled after the US military, with a full non commissioned officer ranks. And when the military history is written, that one thing will be the critical difference. In the heat of battle, the Ukrainians had trained officers right in the shit, ready to make tactical decisions as the situation changed. The Russians could only follow orders until new orders finally came down, most of which the Ukrainians intercepted over open channels. That was the difference.