The subject of this article is actually nothing new. In fact I’ve written about various facets of it in several different articles. But the current events of today have started to coalesce some of these disparate portions into one cohesive ball of wax.

A brief history lesson, brief, I promise. Back in 2015, when Trump first threw his college beanie into the ring, he was a laughing stock ass clown in the GOP. But when Traitor Tot started posting popularity ratings in the mid 30’s, and nobody else was out of single digits, they started to take him seriously. In a GOP primary debate hosted by Chris Wallace of FUX News, he asked, I need a show of hands here. Is there anybody on this stage, and please, let me see hands, that won’t promise to accept the results of these primaries, and in fact support the eventual winner? Only Trump refused to raise his hand. When pressed by Wallace Trump replied, That’s too much leverage. We’re the best campaign. We can win, and we will win. Which is all Reince Priebus needed to hear to know he had a problem child.

When His Lowness started getting close to clinching the GOP nomination, the alarm grew, and the speculation started. There was talk of a nasty floor fight at the convention to deny Trump the nomination. It was that threat that led Trump to hire Paul Manafort, to coordinate the floor fight. But then Trump pulled the ace out of his pocket.

Trump could add and subtract well enough to know that he had the largest committed voter base in the party. Not enough to actually win, but with Trump it was never about winning, it was about publicity and branding. So Trumpenstein went public on FUX News,and threatened that if the GOP pulled the nomination from him, he would split from the party for an independent run, and take his base with him. That was the kiss of death for the GOP nationally, so the GOP caved in.

Fast forward to today. Trump has once again thrown his Q-Anon viking helmet in the ring, but it’s different this time. Major donors are treating him like the kid with the cooties, strategists, analysts, campaign managers and campaign workers are voting with their feet, and worst of all, FUX News has largely signed off of Trump, and is giving them unlimited airtime to bitch.  And they’re even appearing at major donor events and calling him a stone loser. Their rallying cry is that Trump has placed his personal interests above those of the party.

Already, 14 months before the first primary ballots are cast, Trump is feeling the desperation. He is already starting to throw around dark, 10 gallon hints of splitting from the party if the primaries don’t go his way, and taking his rabid 26% base with him. There’s just one problem. This isn’t 2016, when the GOP was desperate for every vote. It’s 2022, and the GOP has finally listened to the 2013 autopsy report and realized that they Can’t win with Trump! And in his arrogance, and in the mainstream GOP’s newfound spine, they may have finally discovered their escape hatch.

Look, if Trump goes down because the GOP screws him, he becomes a Martyr to the cause. And his base will make as much trouble as they can. But if they give him a fair primary, with no special privileges he enjoyed as in 2020, and he loses, then he is highly unlikely to drag anything more than his rabid 26% base with him. Well Trump supporters and moderates are unlikely to flee the GOP nest for a sore loser. Which means that the GOP takes a bloodletting in 2024, but hell, they’re going to take that anyway if Trump wins the nomination.

Remember one thing. Despite all the Sturm und Drang, the moderate base of the GOP is still the dominant part of the party. But thanks to low turnout, high energy base primaries, they have nobody decent to vote for.

If Trump bails, within months the moderate GOP will anoint a new RNC Chair, someone like Mitt Romney, or Rob Portman, or Jeff Flake, and finally begin the reclamation project that the 2013 autopsy report called for. And Never Trump groups like Republicans for Accountability, and The Lincoln Project will stop worrying about His Lowness, and unite to rebuild the party. And they’ll work to reunite tha party, update and upgrade their antiquated messaging and platform, and reach out to minorities.

Of course there will still be plenty of Trombies left in the party, especially in the House. But here’s the kicker. Without Trump’s rabid base to show up and shepherd them through the primaries, they become vulnerable, ands anti Trump primary groups like the one that Miles Taylor runs will be ready to give them plenty of opposition. And moderate GOP voters, sick of the bullshit, will likely show up to vote in the primaries, and take their party back.

Look, this process is going to be bitter wormwood on the tongues of the moderate faithful, but it’s far past time. The GOP will do their time in the wilderness, but with s purpose. The purpose of creating a younger, more diverse, minority friendly party that can one again compete on the national stage. And if all goes well, in 6-8 years, we will once again have a robust 2 party system stripped of the extremist bullshit. I doubt I’ll live that long, but if I do, I’ll pop a cork when it happens.

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  1. I don’t know if you caught Paul Ryan’s interview on Sunday, but he was asked, “What if Trump doesn’t get the GOP nomination and walks across the street and registers as an Independent?” Ryan’s reply was, “Then he hands the country to the left.” I found that an interesting spin because conventional wisdom is that third party candidates dilute the Democrats’ advantage.

    One thing is for sure, the rules of political science are being rewritten all the time.

    • I don’t find anything shocking in that reply Ursula…Simply because when they released the infamous Autopsy Report of 2013, they admitted that it would cost them 2 presidential cycles and maybe the 2nd midterm to complete the transition. But if the GOP wants to survive, it has to be done, and soon enough so that the moderate base is still intact…

      • the mule in democracy is trump. like asimovs foundation plan. Something that could not be planned for. the republicans plan should have worked but the mule took over.

        • Yeah, no, that’s a bad analogy. When you look at the overall pattern, Trump was less an anomaly like the Mule and more the logical fruit of William Blake’s fabled “poison tree”. I compare him to Carter for a reason, as both he and his moral opposite are the final gasps of a dominant political coalition that started off as a false dawn.

    • It depends on the candidate. Third party or independent candidates like John Anderson and Ralph Nader dilute the Democratic vote because they are sane and reasonable. There is no way anyone on the left would ever vote for Trump** But crazy Republicans would. The GOP needs more than the crazy vote, but it does need the crazy vote to win.

  2. Kind of along the same lines, this is just my idea, they should let Trump endorse Walker in Georgia. I say this, simply because Walker is such a poor quality candidate. I nice big loss for Walker might just get him and Trump out of republicans’ business.

  3. Trump and his death cult are going to make this process extremely unpleasant. I know a lot of you are old enough to remember how the left got tarred and feathered by everybody from the Black Panthers (despite how they did some genuine good for their people), the Charles Manson family and the Weather Underground. We’re seeing a similar process play out here. The folks who make mainstream America feel unsafe WILL be rejected with increasing force. First time in my life that I’ve seen people this afraid of white people…and justifiably so in too many instances.


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