This is an unexpected after Xmas bargain, watching the horse trading that the GOP has been doing in Colorado. If Lauren Boebert’s kids have a lick of merchandising savvy, let’s hope that they had enough sense to somehow record their mother’s phone conversations with the powers that be in the Colorado State GOP. Even just hearing Bobo’s end of the conversation has got to be a howler.

You know that there had to be recriminations and pleading. That’s a given. I don’t pretend to know the law in this area but I’m guessing that it’s Boebert’s choice to run for reelection or not and if she had wanted to tell the GOP, no, I’m sticking it out, I honestly don’t know if they could have forced her to drop out of the race. And I’m equally sure that they didn’t want to tell her to drop out of the race, but the cold, hard figures kept staring them in the face and they were terrified of losing the seat. Before we analyze the odds of that, here’s Bobo’s statement and the reactions to it.

the tweet ends, “selfish, and this is a selfish move on your part.” Now the part that I liked is where she said she was moving into CO-04. I fully expected that to happen. It was not going to fly for Bobo to remain in Rifle or Silt or wherever her current domicile is and represent the other side of the state.

And no, it’s not a selfish move on her part. It’s the only move she’s got and she didn’t decide to make it. Bobo is now a pawn. Ken Buck has inconvenienced the party by retiring so the GOP is attempting to make the best of a bad bargain and see if Bobo can maybe hang onto Buck’s seat. And there’s no guarantee that they’re going to hang onto CO-03 now. Obviously they know that, or there wouldn’t be these panicked machinations.

Boebert is the female Madison Cawthorn meaning:

  1. She’s stupid;
  2. She’s uneducated;
  3. She’s good looking;
  4. She was at the right place at the right time with her looks and her MAGA line of bull;
  5. She had a tremendous opportunity dropped into her lap;
  6. She squandered the opportunity because her ego was so large and her mind so small that she couldn’t see that this wasn’t about her or something that she did. It was about the upheaval in the country and if she wanted to survive the storm and come out on the other end, she was going to have to actually create some value.
  7. She’s now waking up, but it’s too late.

Seriously, go through that checklist and match it up against what happened with Cawthorn. It’s an exact fit. And where is Cawthorn now and what is he doing? Anybody hear from Maddy lately?

Carpetbagger is what her Democratic opponent will call her, I have no doubt of that. Unless I miss my guess, the state GOP was not thrilled with this alternative. But just taking Bobo off the ballot in CO-03 would have been quite the scandal. Putting her on the ballot in CO-04 is still the scandal, but since that seat is so at risk now with Buck abandoning it and possibly Bobo’s name recognition can hold the seat, they decided this was their best shot.

I don’t think Bobo in CO-04 is going to save anything. As a matter of fact, I think it’s the worst move the GOP can make. Taking her off the ballot and saving the CO-03 seat would have been scandalous, but it would have blown over. Tasking her with saving Ken Buck’s seat (which would be a damn safe seat in anybody else’s hands, but I think Bobo may still blow it) is going to focus attention on both races.

Bobo is going to have to spend the next eleven months making all this sound like it was her idea. Plus, as you saw in the video, she’s trying to pivot to some sweet, conciliatory thing and all that does is expose her utter brainlessness. Bobo had one use and one use only and that was to spew the MAGA talking points while looking good and being a MAGA poster babe. That’s all she’s good for. Now, she’s trying to pivot to the role of Serious Legislator and all that’s going to do is expose her massive incompetence.

Maybe the Democrats will pick up two house seats in Colorado this year. Wouldn’t that be something? My instinct is that her name is now mud in that state and I don’t see it being any different on the eastern plains than on the western slope of the Rockies. I’m not sure this was such a great strategy on the part of the GOP. But then again, it’s no worse than Mike Johnson being Speaker. Everything is relative, right?

 

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10 COMMENTS

    • I’m not so sure. Bobo was getting primaried this election in her current district. If she won, that seat would have turned blue. Now she is removed from the district 3 calculus which will make that primary a bit less contentious. Perhaps the candidate who wins that primary will have pretty good chance to beat the dem–they will certainly have a much, much better chance than Bobo. Now on to the 4th district–other ‘pubes are looking at that district which might result in her losing the primary there. That will not put a dem in that seat automatically. Were Bobo to win, yes, the dem would have a better chance. I just don’t see her winning the 4th district’s primary-she’s just got too much baggage for any conservative district. Any other winner of district 4’s primary will likely be a shoo-in for the general election. Let’s face it, districts 3 and 4 are very red districts so Bobo leaving/losing these districts gives other republicans a chance to run in the general and when they do, republican voters will choose them over a dem.

      Bobo’s primary loss in in the 4th and her leaving the 3rd does not turn these seats blue. In fact, I would make book that the state republican party is right now breathing a sigh of relief; perhaps they are popping the champagne corks. This might be premature since Bobo could possibly win the 4th’s primary. But her absence from the 3rd district is a gift for the state republican party party.

      6

  3. I read somewhere earlier that in CO a person doesn’t actually have to live in the District they represent. That might or might not be true but even if the law there says it’s legal it’s a bad idea for a candidate to try. And by candidate I mean a credible, qualified one. So she’s moving. Maybe she hopes for a fresh start. New town, new people etc. but her problem is everyone knows her, and only horny guys and I’m sure some women who are lesbian or bi might be interested. Not as their Congress Critter but for other stuff if you catch my drift. It’s a heavily leaning GOP district so perhaps the GOP figures even SHE can’t screw things up enough for a Democrat to win. That remains to be seen. My only question is will she have to face a primary or if the state Party can install her as the GOP candidate whether Republicans in that district like it or not.

    6

    • Well, you’ve got Founding Fathers to thank for that lack of district residency. The only residency requirement for members of the House is to be a resident of the state. (Also 7 years as a US citizen but nothing specific about length of residency in the state district you seek to represent.)
      SCOTUS, in 1964, ruled that at-large districts violated the principle of “one man, one vote” (aside from states with an insufficient population for more than one seat) and Congress codified this in 1967. (The issue before the Court was that some states might have 1 or 2 seats elected by the state at large and the rest were elected by specific districts. A little over a century ago, Pennsylvania, for instance, had 36 members of the House, 32 of whom represented specific districts and 4 who were elected by the state as a whole. Of the district-specific members, 18 were Republicans, 12 were Democrats and 2 were Progressive Party members. The 4 at-large members were all Republicans. (In the early 1960s, all 8 House members from Alabama were elected at large.)

      5

    • It didn’t harm MTG at all. She took over that GA district and she lived in southern GA. I think she moved to the district but that still doesn’t take away the carpetbagger stench.

      4

  6. It’s too bad Buck dropped out. He was a vocal MAGA critic. Boebert had to flee, as Frisch far out-fundraised her, thanks to nationwide donations (many thanks for that, PZ).

    There are 6 other republicans who have entered the primary in the 4th. Karen Breslin, Isaac McCorkle, and John Padora are the democrats who have jumped in.

    I don’t know anything about any of them, but it’ll be a tough general election as the fourth is pretty solidly Republican. But hope springs eternal since they went for the moderate Ken Buck.

    The question is, which dem should we “Frisch”

    7

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