The 2021 Virginia state elections are two weeks from next Tuesday, and Democrats are nervous. Frankly I prefer that. Play like you’re 10 points down in the second half. And there is cause, as former Governor Terry McAuliffe is leading a Trump endorsed MAGAhead, but within the margin of error. One caveat. For whatever reason, Democrats historically seem to under poll in Virginia. See the polls the last week in 2017, before Northam cruised to victory.
You who know me know that I love the off year elections, especially the ones going into the midterms. They can provide an early glimpse into voter enthusiasm. And Virginia is a poster child for that. Thanks to Democratic resurgence taking over the state government, Virginia has some of the most liberal voting laws in the south, including 45 days of early voting, and no excuse absentee and mail in balloting.
Virginia is a case study for our current politics. When Trump won in 2016, Virginia was a comfortably red state. In 2017, led by the suburban women’s revolt, the Democrats swept the statewide offices, and came within a coin flip of tying the Virginia House. It was an early indicator that not only GOP women, but suburban voters were turning on Trump and the GOP. And in 2018, the Democrats flipped 40 seats in the House. In 2019, they finished the job of flipping the House, and flipped the Senate.
Here’s why this matters. On The Beat today, Ari Melber had former Governor and DNC chair Howard Dean, and they were talking Virginia. And Dean related that in early voting polling, which favors Democratic turnout, the number one issue motivating voters out to the polls wasn’t Covid, and it wasn’t the economy, it was one Donald John Trump. If this is true, it is terrible news for the GOP, and I think they know it. Trump endorsed candidate Glenn Youngkin keeps trying to dog whistle Trump’s base without cozying too close to Trump in public.
There are going to be two major takeaways to watch for on election night. First of course is who wins. If the Democrats win, then the suburbs are likely secure, and turnout was good. The more comfortable the win, the better. Not only because of Democratic turnout, but if McAulife wins by 6-9 points, not only did Democrats turn out, but it also indicates that rural Republicans were turned off and stayed home. Remember, when the Democrats flipped the Kentucky Governors seat in 2019, GOP turnout in rural deep red coal country was down 15% from 2016 totals.
The second takeaway will be turnout. If the early voting polling holds true, and the turnout is above the average off year gubernatorial election, then it tends to indicate that the Democrats are being motivated by the threat that the GOP death cult presents, and are showing up. Which means it is probably strategically safe for Democrats elsewhere to make a healthy part of their campaign tying opponents to Trump with barbed wire.
One more thing to watch for in the results. Turnout among younger voters, as well as minorities. Young voters are not necessarily natural Democratic voters, but they hate Trump with a burning passion. If they show up in large numbers in Virginia and New Jersey, that is a positive sign going into 2022. And minorities. The Biden administration has yet to come through on a lot of promises, mainly thanks to the two turncoats, Manchin and Sinema. But if they respond to the threats to their hard fought rights in these voter suppression laws, and turn out hard, then with or without voting rights reform, the suppression laws may not work. You can throw up any barriers you want, but if people are determined to vote, then they’ll vote.
One more thing before I go. Texas. The longer this abortion ban law goes on in Texas, the worse it gets for the GOP. Texas polling shows that the law has a less than 20% approval rating. And a few days ago, I heard a panelist on MSNBC say that one of the reasons that the Texas GOP is trying so hard to shore up seats they already control in Texas rather than stealing new ones, is that there are several Texas House races that could actually flip control of the Texas House if they go right. I don’t live in Texas, thank God, so I have no knowledge, I’m simply reporting what I heard. But it is fascinating to consider that if women of all stripes rise up for their rights, and minorities rise up for their rights, even if we don’t get a Democratic Governor, we could get a Democratic House, and stop the madness. And if that happens, then it’s just a matter of time. Don’t touch that dial.
Follow me on Twitter at @RealMurfster35
Assume the snarling dog is going2 rip ur face off & eat ur child. Best to kill it if u can. Once ur on the ground it’s too damn late. No weapon? Make one goddamnit. Too much? Yeah. Tell the nice Christian Germans in 1930. We are them. Welcome to the fun house. Maybe if these politicians had been raised by a violent drunk, having to not only survive but endure with an intact self, as I did, they’d have more understanding what real trouble means. ” are u going to resist or be abused?” Foo Fighters Time to fucking decide America.
When Trump won in 2016 Virginia was the farthest thing from a “comfortably red state.”. Republicans haven’t won a statewide office in Virginia since 2009 when Bob McDonnell won the governorship and Ken Cuccinelli won Atty General.
Virginia has voted For Democrats for President since voting for Obama in 2008.
Hardly comfortable or red.
……Northern Virginia, metro Richmond and Tidewater, with their influx of business and military transplants and minority voters in the population always come through for Democrats. Northern Virginia and Tidewater always report their tallies last, having larger populations takes longer to submit figures, and put the Democrats over the top. (A fact the Orange idiot doesn’t understand).
Trans student’s bathroom and pronoun issues in schools (a gender fluid teen sexually assaulted a female student in a bathroom in Louden County) are riling up the parental suburban female voters. At the same time, the Republican nominee was caught on mic consoling Republican voters by stating that he won’t be so lenient on abortion rights once in office, but right now, the issue could cost him votes and the new scandal where at an event for him an American flag that was carried by terroristic traitors at the attack on the Capitol was hung and used to recite the Pledge of Alliegence are the current main issues going into the election.
That thing about “a gender fluid teen” doesn’t prove anything. Has no one heard of cisgender women attacking cisgender women? (There was an exploitation film a couple of decades ago called “Born Innocent” in which biological teen females sexually assaulted another biological teen female. The film was reported as being responsible for at least one real-life situation.)
And ONE such matter doesn’t negate the reality that HUNDREDS of trans women (mostly trans women of color) have been KILLED by men and trans women who are forced to use men’s bathrooms because of bathroom bills have been sexually assaulted by men.
The term “gender fluid” only means the individual doesn’t define themselves specifically as either male or female whatever genitals the person may possess.
And doing my own search of the issue, the ONLY suggestion of the assailant’s being “gender fluid” is a VERY disreputable allegation. The claim that the assailant is “gender fluid” comes from a man named Scott Smith who was arrested and charged with “Obstruction of Justice and Disorderly Conduct” at a school board meeting just a few months ago. (His specific claim about the assailant is that it was a “boy wearing a dress.” That is NOT what “gender fluid” means. Norman Bates went around killing people dressed up as his mother in “Psycho”; that doesn’t mean that Bates was “gender fluid”–he was a psychopath.)
Wow!!! Feel better now???
I was presenting the issue as it is being portrayed as an issue in the race……nothing more…..nothing less.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/loudoun-schools-sex-assault-allegations/2021/10/13/02d3f144-2c61-11ec-8ef6-3ca8fe943a92_story.html
Hey murf Texas is not a bad place to live over all. You may also want to stop using terms like minorities. In Texas, the white population is in the minority. Maybe use POC or some other version of that.
Yes, the republican demographers are having a hard time slicing up districts. They may also be setting up with their margins for losing several close districts.
Point taken…Thank you!!!
There’s something going on with pollsters and voting Democrats. It happened in ‘18 and also in the Cali recall election. There, they were predicting an 8-10 point win for Newsome and an underwhelming D turnout. When the campaign was then “nationalized”, and Trump was the foil, the numbers tell what actually happened.