I have been having all kinds of fun with the 2020 census. I have already written about how Hispanics in Texas, fueling 95% of their population growth, and have also started to spread their wings out of the urban centers, and into the suburban and exurban areas, are making redistricting a living hell for the Texas GOP. Not only are they diluting the GOP stronghold suburbs, which the GOP used to dilute Democratic strength, but they are driving white GOP voters farther out, into areas that the GOP already controlled.
But there’s more. There’s always more. Did you ever read a book that just grabbed you by the throat, and you were up until like 4 AM finishing it, just to see how it worked out? And then, a week or so later, you sat down and read it again, but slower this time to savor it. And you found all kinds of neat shit that you missed by being all caught up the first time around? That’s what the 2020 census is like for me.
And here’s a nugget that I noticed in passing the first time, but I missed the second nugget that provides the necessary context that gives it importance. In the last decade, for the first time, Hispanics became the fastest growing segment of the population nationally, keeping us on track to be a majority minority country by no later than 2034.
But here’s the nugget that binds the cheese. When you look at the census, the two states with the steepest rise in growth of the Hispanic population, it turns out that the states were North Dakota and South Dakota. Don’t ask me why. Personally, I’d be perfectly happy to never even fly over either one of those states, but I’m sure that they have their reasons.
But here’s why this sniglet so important. Both of those are solidly red states. But the entire population of North Dakota is 762,062 as of 2019. And the population of the entire state of South Dakota is 884,659 as of 2019. For comparison purposes, the population of my adopted home city of Las Vegas NV is 634,773 as of 2019.
Are you starting to catch my drift here? These are both pretty good sized states, but there’s nobody in them! And they’re so used to being comfortably red that I’m betting that their turnout is middling at best. But you know what else both North Dakota and South Dakota have? A large indigenous Native American population, some of the most reliable Democratic voters you can find.
Which has the potential to turn the Dakota’s into ticking time bombs going into 2022. God knows the tribes should be energized after the way that the Biden administration prioritized getting vaccinations into tribal lands to fight the coronavirus. And if Latino activist groups and the Democratic party can get people up there to motivate the Hispanics, and get them signed up to vote, there could easily be some frigging in the rigging in those two states in 2022.
Look, I’m pretty sure that mutant GOPtards like Kristi Noem are too busy prancing and dancing around ithemselves up for 2024 to pay attention to little shit like the 2020 census. But the census makes it clear that when it talks about a majority minority America, they don’t mean just large urban areas. It means everywhere! The Hispanic population also grew in Kansas, which elected a Democratic Governor in the last cycle. Personally, I think that the GOP is so self absorbed with their Trump subservience, culture wars, and power lust that they’re missing the fact that the minorities are eating the floorboards out from under them.
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I’m with you, Murf. All I need to do is look at the commercials on IMDB TV to see your point. Not a lot of white faces up there and the products they’re selling to folks of a different shade? The kind you would have to my alleged race last century. My point: if big business is betting on THAT customer base for the long term, politicians of any political persuasion BETTER be doing the same.
Texas redistricting is underway and the knives are coming out for republicans. Two texas republican house reps have decided to spend more time with their families already.
The more interesting story is Matt Krause. He had a pretty safe district in Tarrant County which is sort of Fort Worth Suburbs (district 93). The magical republican district makers carved out a two bulb district connected by a stretch almost two blocks wide in 2010. He won in 2020 by high single digits.
Krause is a loyal freedom caucus person. He could have easily decided to defend his seat. Instead he has jumped into the GOP primary against Ken Paxton. paxton already has two other serious challengers, Krause is challenging his good buddy paxton, maybe from even farther from the right. So why is Krause jumping into what is a serious republican dog pile.
Back to redistricting. Given how Texas demographics have changed over the last 10 years. Creating safe republican districts is going to be especially difficult. So far trump districts is sort of the gold standard, how can republicans carve out as many or more trump districts based on the new census. Trump only won texas by 5 points down from 9 points in 2016. That puts a lot of districts in peril for republicans. So perhaps Matt Krause was one of the first to fall on his sword and left his marginal r district to be carved up in the redistricting process.
The longer knives will come out when congressional lines are drawn. Congresspeople don’t have a vote in how their districts are drawn up as that is due to the legislature. They also need to carve out two new districts from scratch. dan crenshaw (Houston) chippy roy (Austin, San Antonio), roger williams (Austin, Dallas), van taylor (Dallas) , Michael Mccaul (Austin) could all be on the chopping block. Look for some of them to jump to another office when the maps come out.
btw I don’t think the data suggests whites are moving even farther out in Texas. The data suggests many majority white population counties are actually shrinking in numbers. there is no where else to run for white voters racist voters.