Newsom’s Masterstroke. And Why IL, MI, NY and NJ Must Follow Suit

The more I see of this Newsom Plan for emergency redistricting, the more there is to like about it. But in one way, it shines a brilliant spotlight as to how much one aspect of politics has changed in the last fifteen years. And I can even pinpoint the linchpin moment.

A brief, and I promise it will be a brief history lesson that is critical to what we are seeing today. In 2009, President Barack Obama went to war for his landmark Affordable care Act legislation to change the map of health insurance in this country. But the Democrats massacred their own messaging in the rollout, and the GOP’s Death panels for Granny message led to the Tea Party debacle of 2010. The Democrats died on their messaging hill in 2009, and it cost them dearly.

Now flash forward to July of 2015. Donald Trump declares for the presidency, and in short order starts to consolidate what will become an insurmountable lead. But at a cost. Almost the entire GOP brain trust of operatives and messaging specialists bolted for The Lincoln Project and other anti Trump groups. Trump won by a minority vote in 2016, but the GOP got clobbered in 2018, Trump lost in 2020, and they barely regained control in 2022. Why? Because their messaging, especially on the national level was, and still is, a laughable joke. Not only can’t the GOP win the idea war, they get their asses kicked in the messaging war too.

Here’s why this is so important today. Texas Governor Gregg Abbott is almost as arrogant and big of an imbecile as Traitor Tot. When he came to His Lowness with his clearly unconstitutional mid cycle redistricting plan, they said the quiet part out loud. The only reason they were doing this was a blatantly political power play was to save the GOP House in 2026. And once it was done, it was done. With the GOP having a stranglehold on the statehouse, those maps were never balancing out again, no matter what happens in the 2030 census. It is strongarm fascism at its most naked, and something about as popular as a turd in a swimming pool.

Now look at Gavin Newsom’s rousing speech today. It was simple, rousing, practical, and in a word, brilliant. And the brilliance was in the messaging contrast he used to make the idea not only palatable, but desirable. Such as;

• Newsom laid bare and simple the GOP’s craven attempt to override the will of the voters for purely political purposes, namely to keep the GOP in control
• He hammered home the fact that once Texas completed this chicanery, it was permanent. This map would be the new baseline map for future redistricting
• Then Newsom slammed Abbott, Trump and the GOP by highlighting the differences between Texas and California. California was not acting in an illegal and unconstitutional manner in redrawing its map. Instead, they were reacting to the GOP perfidy in order to retain some form of balance and fairness in the electoral process
• Newson highlighted the fact that for the past fifteen years California has had a nonpartisan redistricting commission that handles redistricting in California. Newsom assured all and sundry that this one time process would have no effect on the already existing nonpartisan commission
• Because this was only a temporary fix. The redrawn maps would only be in effect for 2026, 2028, and 2030. Following the 2030 census, the nonpartisan commission would once again take over the redistricting process

Game. Set. Match. The loud and clear message from Newsom was Hey! Don’t look at us! We didn’t start this sh*t, but we’re sure as hell gonna put an end to it! Democracy is too precious to trust it to a bunch of fascist yahoos in funny hats! Even diehard GOP shills and mouthpieces are having trouble explaining why it’s OK for Abbott, but Newsom is some power hungry *sshole.

The message is a guaranteed winner in every Democratic state controlling the legislature and governorship. It sings to our very sense of patriotism. A) Some Hitler wannabe is trying to hijack our democracy and we can’t let him, and, B) They want to do this permanently, we’re just instituting a temporary fix to offset them.

There isn’t a single Blue controlled state Governor like Witmer in MI, Pritzker in IL, Murphy in NJ, or Hochul in NY who can lose with this. The fact that it’s only a temporary fix to ensure the survival of democracy is a balm for the soul for those of us fearful of that slippery slope to fascism.

But here’s the second reason that this can literally be a kill shot to the GOP as far as control of the US House is concerned for the long term. But if the Democrats play their cards right with these maps, they can turn them into self fulfilling prophecies going into the next redistricting cycle going into 2031.

Here’s how. And I promise I’ll keep this simple and understandable. For most of my life, the general political landscape in the breakdown of the parties has remained basically the same. Rock solid Democratic inner city urban strongholds, unbeatable GOP rural districts, and the suburbs where the electoral combat and gerrymandering took place, normally leaning steadily GOP.

But in the last fifteen years or so, that suburban battleground scenario has slowly started to shift, for two reasons. First, as black and brown minorities inevitably move their way up the economic ladder, they’re making enough money to allow them to push outward into the suburbs, seeking a safer, better life for themselves and their families. Which scares the sh*t out of the suburban GOP voters, who see the wicked city invading their safe haven. Second, the increase of higher paying technology and related jobs attracts younger, more upwardly mobile, democratic leaning voters. And they’re moving into the homes that the anal retentive GOP trolls are fleeing. The suburbs are slowly but noticeably turning more and more blue.

And that is a potential electoral gold mine for the Democrats, because it means that a new battleground is opening up on the map, the exurbs.

Think of the exurbs as the suburbs of the suburbs. These towns still have all the benefits and amenities of the suburbs, but by necessity they’re beginning to spread out from what was a traditional suburb into what has traditionally been considered rural America. And properly handled, it’s an electoral cornucopia for the Democrats.

Here’s how it would work. Let’s say that you have a suburb that is now comfortably Democratic, alongside an exurb that is comfortably GOP. You can take say a three mile wide stretch of the border between the two, and push it say three miles into the GOP exurb. This would gain you, say ten thousand votes. In return you draw a bubble at the top of the map that adds twice as much land to the district, yet only gains twenty five hundred GOP voters, because cows can’t vote, and cows and corn are all that’s out there. You can turn a narrow GOP exurb district into a narrow but safe Democratic district by using the vast rural wasteland.

Here’s the self fulfilling prophecy part. You have five years to fill in the blanks. If the GOP’s suburban-exurban exodus continues, and the Democrats and independents continue to fill in the holes, then by the 2030 census, these become competitive and perfectly representative districts. Why would even a neutral redistricting commission fix what’s not broken. And even if the GOP takes control, how do you redraw the rural lines to overcome the shortfall without running into a minimum population in those other purely rural areas?

Look, Newsom’s plan will of course work best in California, that’s the whole point of him creating it that way. But there is still plenty of room in solidly blue controlled states to use Newsom’s fairness doctrine to force more and more MAGA idiots deeper into the cow sh*t. Kind of reminds me of the old television comedy Green Acres. Look it up.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.

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