Of all the assumptions made about this country going into Trump’s first term in office, perhaps none were greater than the belief that the express terms of the Constitution will be followed. However, and especially after the 2020 insurrection and attempted coup, we no longer have the luxury of assumptions. Thus it is with serious interest that we watch how he handles questions about a “third term,” even though no such question existed prior to Trump. Almost hilariously, Republicans with “ODS” (the precursor to “TDS”) used to warn that Obama would demand a third term. So now, up against the 22nd Amendment, Trump acts as though he is doing us a favor by stating that he “probably” won’t run again in 2028.
Make no assumptions at all because when has the law ever stopped this guy? From a report in Politico:
President Donald Trump said Tuesday he would “probably not” run for a third term. “I’d like to run,” he said when asked about the possibility on CNBC’s Squawk Box. “I have the best poll numbers I’ve ever had.” Trump has previously declined to rule out a third term, telling NBC in March there “are methods” to assume office again if he wanted to.
See? Now this is a problem because, really – no one should even want a third term. It is likely that even being president gets to be a hassle after a while. It is also worth noting that there’s no evidence that Trump likes the work of actually being president, only the title and the perks. So this thing about “probably” is a huge red flag. Evidently, he doesn’t believe it to be a big problem. This is true even though the 22nd Amendment expressly precludes it, even in someone who hasn’t had consecutive terms. Some Constitutional Amendments are extremely complicated to understand (See the 11th Amendment), but the 22nd is straightforward, not a MENSA test. Evidently, that doesn’t bother him.
But allies of the president — and Trump himself — have repeatedly floated him serving another term despite that constitutional prohibition. On his official merchandise store, Trump 2028 goods are already for sale. “The future looks bright! Rewrite the rules with the Trump 2028 high crown hat,” one product description reads.
Yes, the crown hat, appropriate given that it would be akin to anointing him king over all the land. Amazing that even Republicans don’t seem too bothered by the prospect of ever-domination. But that leads to two final points.
First, just like any assumption that he won’t make a serious effort at a third term, one should also not take it as a given that the GOP will go along with it. The Epstein mess has yet to really play out, and the economy remains suspect, especially given that the tariffs largely haven’t gone into effect. But the Epstein thing could break loose in the near future, given the sheer number of witnesses in the FBI who combed through the files to flag Trump’s name. Second, it is wrong to assume that the economy will remain sufficiently buoyant to hold him up. A commonality among all Republican presidents is the tendency to usher in economic collapse during a second term, leaving it for Democrats to fix. Unfortunately, the economy may need to break in order to break Trump’s hold on the GOP.
The other variable is that Trump is old, even older than Biden was at this point in his administration, and age does catch up to everyone – especially people under tremendous stress, as Trump is with the Epstein matter hanging over him. There is a reason that the “cankles” meme hit so profoundly, and there is a reason that it is easier and easier to flag cognitive issues that have arisen. Last, Trump is also in danger of simply becoming old news. Even some of his most loyal supporters will get weary of the constant drama coming from him and his administration.
His poll numbers are totally underwater, with Grok putting him as averaging around 42-44% approval ratings. That was an obvious lie. That Trump ignores the truth is a given. It is also a matter of course that the law has never stopped him. Last, he isn’t above declaring something an emergency and imposing martial law if he feels threatened – see, e.g. January 6th 2021. So it is critical to pick up any hints that may be out there regarding his thoughts on staying in office.
Assume almost nothing… Other than the fact that he will age.
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Trump has given countless examples of saying one thing intending to (and then doing) the opposite. Given this history him saying he probably won’t run for a third term means you’re goddamned right he’s going to run! Worse, he could stand in front of crowds mumbling and drooling like an infant leaving a big wet spot on his shirt, AND with shit running out of his diaper and visible on the stage, leaving a trail behind him as he walks around and MAGAs will STILL support him with a fervor that makes every other Republican afraid to run against him for the nomination.
The day he violates the Constitution, one paid for with the BLOOD OF PATRIOTS, by stealing a third term, just might be the start of another American Revolution, IF the goddamn citizens will wake up and realize they are the slow boiling frog. The law? The law, and its army of corrupt, greedy assholes, is WHY WE ARE HERE!
Smart money doesn’t have him surviving THIS term.
Hopefully he won’t destroy the country first.