If you smell frying bacon where you are, that’s probably because I’m rubbing my hands together so hard. I swear, these Trumplets are so cute just before their egos die.
If you follow the news at all, then you don’t need me to tell you that in almost every battleground state, the first day and beyond early voting numbers are blowing the doors off of previous records, including 2020. Normally it’s the Democrats that would be clapping their hands and dancing jigs, and they are. The early vote tends to be predominately Democratic, with the GOP playing catch up on election day voting.
But this year, some MAGA faithful and strategists, especially in the Traitor Tot campaign are already spiking the football, especially in Georgia and Pennsylvania. But here’s the problem, they’re spiking the football on their own 10 yard line. They’re high fiving and poppping corks because GOP early voting turnout is up. And they’re pointing to this as a surefire sign of high GOP voter enthusiasm.
My advice to these political 3 year olds is to pull their hand away from that oven door. They’re just putting a different shade of lipstick on the same porker. As I wrote in the previous article, 74 million votes is 74 million votes, no matter the date it’s cast, and nothing shows that Trump has engaged a single new voter. More early votes means less election day votes. They’re robbing-Peter-to-pay-Paul.
Here’s how this works. We’re able to get an idea of how voter turnout is going by party simply because it’s gauged. When a mail in ballot is sent, or a voter signs for an in person early voting ballot, their party affiliation from their voter registration card is present. So while we get a raw total of how many ballots are returned, and for which party, we have no idea of how the person actually voted.
And that’s the whole ball game right there. It doesn’t matter who voted, but who they voted for. And we don’t get that until the votes are tabulated. In 2016 Traitor Tot had a ghost army of soft GOP, Democratic, and Independent voters who either didn’t answer pollsters calls, or flat out lied. And that was enough to skew the polls and put El Pendejo ex Presidente over the top.
Well, guess what? Here in 2024 I think Traitor Tot has another ghost army, but this time, instead of faithful undercover MAGA brownshirts, that ghost army is made up of Huns, and they’re looking to sack and pillage Mar-A-Slobo. Here’s why I think so.
Remember, only the party affiliation information is available for those returned ballots. But here’s the McGuffin. Sitting around out there right now are a growing mass of well organized groups like GOP Women for Harris, Men for Harris, Black Men for Harris, Republicans for Accountability, and even Evangelicals for Harris. And almost all of them have skin in the game by having donated to their groups.
And if you’ve watched any of their Trump attack ads, you know these people are as serious as a heart attack. Most of the ads feature a select group of short clips of people with stories like, I’m a lifelong Republican, and I voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. But there’s no way I can vote for him again. I’m voting for Kamala Harris in 2024 as the only sane choice left.
The operative words there are I’m a lifelong Republican. And even though they’re voting for Harris in 2024, their voter registration party affiliation is still highly likely to be Republican. Their vote is a matter of situational expediency and not a sea change in core beliefs.
And if you’re a lifelong Republican, and you’ve navigated the slippery slope of the abandonment permission structure, isn’t it likely that you would want to very quietly, even secretly either get a mail in ballot, or go out to the polls early, while your willpower is still at its highest, cast your ballot, and then home and keep your mouth shut? At worst responding with something like, Oh, I already cast my ballot a couple of weeks ago when asked, and let people assume that you’re a faithful soldier?
That’s the ghost army I’m talking about. You don’t make a public break like that, especially considering the possible repercussions if you’re not serious. But at the same time you’re not about to advertise it in your local newspaper. Meanwhile the GOP imbeciles are 100% sure that every early GOP vote is that of a dyed-in-the-wool true believer.
I would love nothing more than to see a larger than usual GOP early voter turnout, and then, on election night, when the early votes cast are released into the vote count, and the GOP early vote count is smaller than it was in 2020. That’s an even bigger hole, with fewer election day GOP votes to count, and who knows how many of them are Trump defectors? Pride goeth before a fall, but arrogance goeth before a pratfall. 15 days. Don’t touch that dial.
I thank you for thye privilege of your time.
That makes good sense.
Thanks Murph.
If the election truly is as close as so many pundits/pollsters are saying as little as one percent (perhaps even less) of Republicans in swing states quietly doing what you suggest (and I think with good reason) and vote AGAINST Trump, and “horrors” (to their family/friends) vote for Harris, just this once in their life vote for a Democrat that could make all the difference. There are a helluva lot of GOP women out there who are anti-abortion but have been seeing the consequences of the overturning of Roe. Many might still want to have children, or their kids want families. Pregnancy compllications are more common that people realize and one of the consequences of the GOP’s health care policies is that small-town/rural America has seen a lot of hospitals close due to lack of funding for Medicaid. That means fewer OBGYNs to provide pre-natal care which in turn leads to more complications with pregnancies. With doctors in so many states justifiably terrified to perform what used to be standard care in a miscarriage women are literally dying. Or if they survive aren’t able to have children again.
Conservatives thought women would “get over” the Dobbs decision. They found out they were wrong in 2022. They have confidently asssumed the whole matter will have died down by now. If they are wrong again and there are indications they might well in fact be wrong who knows how many women in particular will voter early/mail-in and, as you say when some GOPer calls up breezily say “I already cast my ballot.” If pressed on who they voted for they don’t actually have to even lie. They can simply say “I’ve always been a Republican.”
fwiw, I am not a registered anything. We have open primaries in Texas so I can vote in whatever primary I want.
Would the orange menace claim voter fraud if many registered republicans actually vote Democratic? He will use any reason to say that the election is fraudulent. Could he get that information? I can imagine Marge 3 toes claiming that voting machine “flipped” those votes, rather than registered republicans just being sick and tired of the BS and voting for sanity, democracy, and the Democratic party, at least at the top of the ticket. She is already stating that “her” supporters had it happen to them. Well, at least one of her supporters lol.
Well, I still believe that “supporter” is no more real than Cujo or Pennywise (but far more terrifying than both combined).
After all, it’s just as easy to lie as it is to tell the truth, and when it comes to MAGAts, lying is as natural as breathing. I still wish that Barack Obama had, at some point during his presidency, said something like “I have a message for all Republicans and that is ‘Breathe.'” Knowing how Republicans hated Obama and opposed ANYTHING he said or did, we’d have gotten rid of most of the garbage people known as “MAGAts.” The way they would’ve heard it, their reaction would be “Imagine the nerve of that Black man telling us to breathe. Well, I’m not going to do what HE wants!”
I question whether we can trust anyone who states they voted for trump in ’16 & ’20 but now they’re casting their vote for V.P. Harris/Gov. Walz. In 2016, despite ALL the evidence he was not the man for the job, they somehow figured Hillary would be worse. In 2020, they KNEW how incompetent he was, what a thieving grifter he was, and just how evil and they stuck with him-and more joined them. Now we’re to believe they have actually changed their stripes? No. Sorry. I do not believe these people/groups. They are likely trying to screw up the polls that halfway intelligent people don’t trust anyway or they’re playing some lying game that will somehow benefit trump.
Anything that even tangentially is connected to trump is never to be trusted.
The Orange Shit-stain is like a turd. No matter how much you polish a turd, it still a TURD!
Polishing a turd: A dirty job, but somebody HAD to do it – and now, for sure no one will ever do it again!
My husband and his best friend have been life long republicans and are appalled and embarrassed by trump. They changed their party to No Party Affiliation and did not vote for trump this year or in 2020.