It seems like every day we get more new polling, and the best part is that it’s all polling taken after Kamala Harris spanked Traitor Tot silly in the debate. The other nice thing is that most of the polling is battleground polling, which is where this election will be decided.
Let’s start with Texas, simply because it’s such a Dr. Feelgood story. Former NFL player and US House member Colin Allred is running to unseat insurrectionist loving GOP Senator Cancun Teddy Cruz.
On the same day that former GOP House rep Liz Cheney publicly endorsed Kamala Harris for President, and indicated that her father Dick would be doing the same, she also made somewhat of a surprise announcement that she was endorsing Allred against Cruz, and would work with him in Texas.
Something is working. Today was the first time Liz Cheney appeared in Texas to campaign with Allred, coming the same day that a new poll showed Allred actually leading Cruz by 47-42. And before you call it an outlier, the Trump campaign isn’t taking it as one. Trump’s co-campaign manager released a 4 AM poop tweet screaming, What the hell is wrong with Texas?! We need to get some real professionals in there to help bail out Ted Cruz!
Now you all know me, I love looking for hidden figures that can have unexpected results on a race. And Allred has a stealth ally that’s hard to beat. Everybody knows that the insane Texas abortion law is about as popular as cancer, especially in Texas. And this year, every GOP Supreme court justice that voted to uphold that law is on the ballot for reelection. Pro choice grassroots organizations are mounting a mammoth registration and voter education drive, identifying each justice, and educating where their race is on the ballot. If a pro choice wave against those GOP justices shows up on election day, what do you think the chances are that Allred benefits from that protest vote?
And now on to Kamala Harris and the battleground states. Two more polls came out today, Quinnipiac and Morning Consult, both showing Harris +5 in PA and MI, and +1 in WI. Also, a new USA Today poll basically parroted the same numbers. In all three polls, Harris is at 51 and 50% in PA and Mi respectably. You all know my magic number theory.
Here’s another hidden number, but this one is right out there in plain sight in the poll, it’s just that nobody considers it. As we approach 45 days out, more and more Mugwumps are getting off the fence and siding up. This is reflected by the polls, 51-46 in PA equals 97%. 50-45 in MI equals 95%. So the chickens are coming home to roost.
Here’s the hidden number. On each poll there are three choices, Trump, Harris, or undecided. When the polling is something like 87-83, that means by necessity a fairly large bloc of undecided voters out there. But the closer it gets to election day, the more people make up their minds, and the smaller that category gets. And as a general rule, the later a voter decides, the less likely he or she is to change their minds.
In all three of the polls yesterday and today, the undecided vote category has shrunk to 2-3%. And that’s another magic number. Because Harris is up by 5 points in PA and MI. Which means that even if Trump picked up every single undecided voter, he’s still 2 points behind Harris, with nowhere to go to make it up. And personally, I think that these 5 point margiins of error from reputable pollsters is self serving bullsh*t. They’re so scared of their own shadows after the last two cycles that they’re covering their asses by stretching the MOE.
And here’s a bonus for you. Earlier today Democratic pollster Cornell Belcher appeared on Dateline: White House with Nicolle Wallace. The subject of Black Nazi Marc Robinson in North Carolina came up. Belcher said that he has been heavily invested in NC polling the last month. And especially with the Robinson albatross hanging around the GOP’s neck, Belcher came right out and predicted on national television that not only will Josh Stein win the Governors race, Kamala Harris and the Democrats will flip North Carolina blue in November. The trend lines are that strong. Sweet dreams.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
I see from Trump and Robinson’s quotes that the cunning Democrat plan of ‘Just let them speak’ continues to bear fruit.
“They’re so scared of their own shadows after the last two cycles that they’re covering their asses by stretching the MOE.”
Gonna have to disagree with this analysis, Murf. If the pollsters are “stretching” the margin of error, they risk turning the poll into a completely irrelevant piece of trash. The “margin of error” is NOT intended to be some kind of “magic” number; it’s supposed to be used to cover UNFORESEEN issues. Usually, polls that have a very small number of respondents have larger margins of error because the sample size is considered adequate but could be improved (perhaps the pollsters tried to contact 1000 people but were only able to reach 750 so they have to provide a larger margin of error than they would if they’d reached the 1000). But, if the sample size is 1000 or greater and a margin of error is too large, then the poll is likely suffering from some issues. It’s similar to the difference between polling “likely voters” versus “registered voters”; the former are far more likely to actually get out and vote while the latter is just a group of people who *can* vote but may or may not do so.
If anything, a pollster wants to tighten the margin, especially if they’re trying to “cover their asses” because of previous polls not being so reliable.
As I’ve mentioned numerous times on this site, EVERY margin of error is a number which provides a SPAN for each candidate, above AND below the listed number. If you’ve got a candidate polling at 50-47 with a ±5 MOE, then that means the ACTUAL range is as low as 45-52 to as high as 55-42 (and the MOE applies to BOTH candidates; add the number to one candidate’s number and you have to subtract that same number to the other candidate’s number, and vice versa). If the same poll showed the candidate at 50-47 with a ±3 MOE, then that means the actual range is a low of 47-50 to a high of 53-44
well said
Undecided??? what do they want?
A brain…a spine…and a dose of humanity.
If she actually “slapped him silly,” then she possess the amazing abiity to improve on perfection – and that’s a trait I would think anyone would want in a President.