Open your eyes and take in the spectacle, folks, because you are seeing a phenomenon that does not occur very often in nature, the collapse of one of the two major political parties. These things happen but they don’t happen with enough regularity to predict a cycle, say like Halley’s Comet, which comes around every 75-79 years. The last time this happened was back in 1854, March 20, to be precise. Yes, we would have wished the GOP a happy 170th birthday yesterday, except you don’t wish Happy Birthday to the dead.
The GOP celebrated its birthday with various primaries, the most interesting of which was the Ohio Senate race. Briefly, Matt Dolan was the old guard GOP candidate. He was their great white hope, come to restore some semblance of sanity and balance to the party. He was resoundingly routed by MAGA candidate, Bernie Moreno, who thinks Abraham Lincoln signed the Declaration of Independence. Additionally, the Associated Press dropped a bombshell story last week reporting that somebody with access to Moreno’s email account in 2008 signed up on Adult Friend Finder in search of “young guys to have fun with while traveling.” Even this didn’t cause a ripple in the pond.
Joe Biden has three times the amount of money in his war chest right now as Donald Trump has in his. For you see, ladies and gentlemen, there are two races going on this November. One is Trump v. Biden, and that one he’s going to lose. The other is Trump v. the GOP and he’s got that one down in a walk.
Fundraising has a limited effect on presidential races. But downballot is another story.
One study found that advertising had two to four times more influence on US House and Senate elections than on presidential elections; in statewide races, advertising had 10 to 19 times as much effect as in presidential races. This is, again, because most voters know relatively little about downballot candidates, and so look to advertising to inform themselves.
Trump may not need campaign funds, but Senate, House, governor, and local candidates do. And Trump’s money troubles are, unfortunately for them, their money troubles as well.
Trump has installed his daughter in law, Lara Trump, and a dittohead loyalist, Michael Whatley, as the co-chairs of the Republican National Committee. Lara, who even Trump partisans admit has no qualifications for her new position, has said that “every penny” of the money raised by the RNC would go to Trump’s campaign. Rather than spending on state parties, Lara Trump wants to use RNC funds to pay Trump’s legal fees and sue to disenfranchise voters.
If the RNC follows through on that promise, it could be a disaster for downballot Republicans. In 2020 the GOP transferred around $200 million to state parties, which was about a quarter of its total spending.
Not only will state parties get a smaller percentage of the pie, but the pie will probably be significantly smaller as well. In October, the RNC had only $9.1 million in cash; at the same point in 2020, it had $61 million. The RNC did better in January, when it raised $12 million, but that was before Lara took over in February. She and Whatley have already radically cut the RNC, firing more than 60 workers.
That was a bloodbath and it was directly attributable to Trump. But make no mistake, Trump is not the lone ranger in this situation. He’s got plenty of assistance in destroying the Republican party from his MAGA minions. Because the party also killed its golden goose, Kevin McCarthy, shortly after he predicted a 40-plus seat victory in the House.
When House Republicans decided in their wisdom to defenestrate their speaker, Kevin McCarthy, they tossed their most successful money man through the window at the same time.
McCarthy was a fundraising beast; he personally raised north of $40 million in the 2022 midterms. His super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, raised $350 million for the midterms as well. That’s not enough to pay Trump’s debts, but it’s still a ton of advertising in House races where spending can move the needle.
There’s already signs that McCarthy’s absence is causing problems for the GOP, especially in his home state of California. Average fundraising for representatives in swing districts like John Duarte (CA-13) and David Valadao (CA-22) are down 40 percent since McCarthy was ousted as speaker.
If you’re a House Republican, the election looks bleak — which may be part of why so many of them are retiring even though polls suggest the race for the chamber is virtually tied. GOP state governors and legislators may face an even more difficult environment. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is already eyeing potential state legislative chamber flips in Arizona, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania.
I have quoted the prophet Lindsey Graham many times and ye know his words. Behold, they have come to pass. Trump has destroyed them, as the prophet said, they have deserved it.
And if you want to know how corrupt the entire GOP is, their commissioners have blocked SEC investigation of Trump 29 times. They not only led themselves to the slaughter, they protected the butcher over and over again. This is madness.
Last time I checked the Third Reich, which was advertised as lasting a thousand years, lasted only twelve. The nazi party in America, i.e., the gop, at least bested that record. R.I.P. mutherphuckers.
I’m amazed they made it 170 years. I wonder if they know what’s coming? Or, if like ostriches, they just figure if they bury their heads in the sand and they can’t see what’s happening, then it’s not really happening.
There is a third potential victim here: the GQP donors and voters themselves when the trump train turns on them. They are beginning to turn on him, but hasn’t he been quoted as “hitting back ten times as hard…”? Watch out for the night of the long knives. The convention should be a laugh riot! If they even get that far…
In 2016 the GOP convention was an awful, second rate show. Same in 2020. I’m expecting this year to be a mashup of the worst parts of both. A trainwreck that your common sense tells you not to look at but some undefinable part of you compels you to watch it happen anyway.
That’s called a reaction to the grotesque. The grotesque is something so horrific that you’re compelled to look at it, i.e. Elephant Man. Very apropos in this conversation. The Elephant Man convention is exactly what we’re going to be watching and grotesque it will be.
The convention is going to be on par with the 1968 Democratic convention. Do you recall that? The rioting in the streets in Chicago? I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a lot worse. I read a story that at least one bar owner is closing his place, he doesn’t want to serve drunk, crazy MAGAs.
Maybe in terms of visuals, but in 1968 there were actually real differences of opinion re the Vietnam War. Here in 2024 for these dudes, all they’d be doing is ganging up on…themselves? Can’t wait to watch…
The allegory between 1968 and 2024 works because in 1968 the country was horrifically divided. I was a kid at the time and in my entire lifetime, from the 60’s until now, the nation has never been more divided than it is. Just two cents worth from a septuagenarian.
Well, he won’t be to fire Congresscritters and Senators no matter how much that kisses them off. Only the voters can do that. But it would be amusing to see him try. Amusing and scary as hell.
They might have made it to 170 had it not been for Lee Atwater and his ilk. That kind of “platform”does attract some people,but it also turns off others.
Almost scared to say anything. Well not really. Trump and company brought this on themselves. I think we may have the first election where Joe wins by default.