Could Trump’s Criminal Contempt Rulings Affect His Sentence?

I’m not a lawyer (and don’t play one on TV), much less one experienced in New York State criminal law. What I do know however is that first time offenders, especially when non-violent white collar crimes are involved seldom go to prison when convicted. Leona Helmsley and Bernie Madoff were exceptions, not the rule. Far from it in fact. I also know that there are two systems of justice in this country. One for a relatively small group of the richest and/or most powerful people and one for everyone else. “Everyone else” means the overwhelming majority of us. So, even if convicted of felonies Trump, like any other rich/powerful white collar defendant would be unlikely to be sent to prison.

Since Trump has yet to be convicted I realize I’m jumping ahead by addressing this but what the hell. I think it’s worth exploring a bit and hope you feel the same. I’ve written before that even if he doesn’t get sent to prison if convicted in New York it bodes ill for Trump. Because he has other criminal trials coming up. If, having been convicted of one or more felonies in New York, if convicted in subsequent cases when sentencing time come he will no longer be a first time offender. THAT is going to matter and perhaps a great deal. Also, not for nothing but when he was much  younger Trump, along with his dad avoided a federal conviction on housing discrimination by signing a consent decree. Whether, and how much that case from fifty years ago might factor in will be an interesting question in and of itself.

In the meantime Trump is standing trial for the first time in his despicable life in criminal court. It’s not going at all well for him and I won’t go into it all here. If you’re reading this you’re someone who has been following the case, and know how badly last week in particular went for Trump. You also know, as described in this article from CBS News that Trump has not only been under a gag order but that he’s violated it a whole bunch of times. So, prosecutors filed a motion listing ten specific charges and a hearing was held. Before judge Merchan issued his ruling there were additional violations and prosecutors filed a new motion listing four more!

Many people including yours truly were in WTF? mode when judge Merchan delayed a hearing on the first ten violations. In retrospect I freely admit the judge knew exactly what he was doing when he chose to concentrate on jury selection. He’s got tons of experience and has dealt with who knows how many thousand defendants, including numerous trials and some big ones. Pundits, including some who have practiced in that same building confidently predicted jury selection would take at least a couple of weeks. With odd being more like at least three weeks. A fully jury of twelve and six alternates were empaneled and sworn in before the end of the day on Friday of the first week!

Yes, there’s a reason why judge Merchan is who and where he is and I’m some old fart in forced early retirement banging away on my keyboard. There would be hearings on motions the following Monday and final rulings on various matters but before the end of the day the first witness was called and the actual trial was underway. Later in the week came the hearing on those ten alleged violations of the gag order. Judge Merchan could have ruled from the bench right then and there but elected not to. Again, he’s a wiser man than me and he took his time crafting a careful ruling knowing Trump would wind up appealing any and everything about the trial he could.

As I mention already while the judge was crafting his decision holding Trump in criminal contempt on nine counts Trump committed four additional violations now under consideration. Trump was fined $!k per violation for a total of nine thousand bucks which the judge pointed said was inadequate but state law prevented him from fining Trump more. His only other remedy/punishment is to put Trump in jail for up to thirty days, something he’s reluctant to do. Much as I hate to say it the judge seems to be taking the right approach. This trial, like all things Trump is a circus but judge Merchan has this trial moving along at a brisk pace.

Trump was warned that continued violations could result in some time in custody, and it may come to that. In the meantime however the judge is building a solid record of having tried everything BUT locking Trump up, just so the appellate court will be able to tell Trump to go pound sand. Trump is who he is and will continue to rack up adverse contempt rulings, and the judge can keep fining him while moving the trial along. But here’s the part that doesn’t get talked about much. Regardless of whether Trump is convicted or not, the judge doesn’t have to toss him in lockup right away. He can wait until after the trial!

If that happens please let there be cameras in the courtroom to record the look on Trump’s face when hit with even a couple of days in jail. And him being led out in handcuffs!

Still, I want to address the question I started with. Ordinarily Trump would likely get probation if convicted just like any other person of privilege. Or a suspended prison sentence. He’d also be out running around doing Trump sh*t during his inevitable appeal. Another privilege while collar defendants get, or at leas those with some money and power. But crafting a sentence gets complicated and if there are a bunch of criminal contempt rulings against Trump, all made after hearings can a judge, including and especially Merchan use that as an aggravating factor in sentencing?

In the federal sentencing guidelines it would count towards “enhancement” but were are talking about state court, specifically in this case New York state. The judge has extended more courtesy to Trump and his lawyers than they deserve. He’s also made it clear they’ve spent the balance in their “credibility account” down to zero. What I hope is that all these contempt rulings give the judge justification to actually sentence Trump to a prison term. Like I said Trump will appeal, just like most defendants would. And Trump will almost certainly not  have to sit in jail as his appeal works its way through the system.

But even a prison sentence of only a year will matter even if Trump never serves a day of it. Because as I’ve noted this is only the first of four trials Trump is on the hook for. So in the end don’t fret, or at least not too much that the judge isn’t tossing Trump in jail. I’ve come to believe he’s giving Trump lots and lots of rope which will eventually be used to tie him up and hang him with.