Checkers Player MTG Wants To Start Another Game of “Speaker Chess”

By now you know the U.S. House of Representatives passed another set of spending bills and sent them over to the Senate. Many in the House GOP ranks were  unhappy at the prospect. In fact, there was talk yesterday that at a caucus meeting this morning GOPers might decide to take the Speaker’s Gavel away from Mike Johnson. As you might expect, this week the “Notorious and Laborious” Marjorie Taylor Greene threatened to do just that. She said if Johnson put the package up for a vote (there were enough votes on a bi-partisan basis to pass it) she’d file a motion to Vacate the Chair. That of course would give us yet another “Who’s Gonna Be Speaker” Circus with the GOP doing it’s flying monkeys hurling turds under the Big Top routine.

Well, the spending bill package was brought to the floor. It passed. As promised MTG submitted a motion to vacate the chair. You can read about it all in this article from USA Today. However, things are a bit different this time around. Different in more than one way in fact. First of all there’s the fact of “The Incredible Shrinking GOP Majority” which is even less now than it was when GOPers tossed out McCarthy. Oh, and as the day went on they’ve lost another member.  We already knew today was Ken Buck’s last day which means his seat will be vacant until after a June 25 election. However, as the day progressed Ken Gallagher announced he too was leaving early. April 19 to be precise and that will be too late to hold a special election to fill HIS seat. It will be vacant until next January when the new Congress convenes.

That means Speaker Johnson and the GOP can afford only ONE defection on any matter that comes up in the House. That poses a tantalizing question, addressed in an article by Newsweek which asks in the title if Democrats will take over the House if Johnson gets tossed.  The harsh reality is that as things stand the answer is no. However, Newsweek makes the case for how and why Johnson is going to have to do some compromising with Leader Jeffries and Democrats. The Newsweek article in the link leads off with that very premise, and mentions a prominent Republican says ousting Johnson would well lead to a Democratic Speaker.

For that matter, with Buck and Gallagher, both of whom had announced intentions to leave when their current term was up leaving early one has to wonder if others will follow. The Chair of the Appropriations Committee has stepped down and plans to leave at the end of the year. You don’t think SHE would have some lucrative opportunities beckoning in the private sector and right now? Other GOPers, more traditional Republicans either already not running for re-election or might still decide not to might follow. They are just worn out, or sick and tired of the crazy and saying “f**kit.”

It might not be as crazy as it sounds that two or three more may pack it in early, and all of a sudden Democrats have a majority and can themselves move to Vacate the Chair, the install Jeffries. That too might only be temporary but it’s enough time to ram through some important things. And to put an end to some of the nonsense like the Biden impeachment fiasco. Comer and Jordan would pitch a fit as would Free-Dumb Caucus members like Gaetz or Greene but most GOPers in the House would be secretly relieved.

For the moment there is some serious political and legislative chess to be played. For example, right away Johnson is facing not only the mess of allowing Trump to browbeat him and his caucus into tanking the border security bill, there’s the matter of the aid package to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan which is critical and needs to be passed. The votes are there if Johnson brings at least the aid package up for a vote but you know how MTG (and others) will react. So Johnson’s in a helluva fix, as Newsweek notes:

Specifically, he will face a major decision about whether to hold a vote on a bill for additional funding for Ukraine and other United States allies abroad including Israel and Taiwan. Greene has opposed this bill, arguing those funds should be spent at home to secure the U.S.-Mexico border. If he holds a vote on that legislation, Greene could move to hold a vote on her resolution.

So there’s that but there are other important matters to deal with. Johnson has to know as well as anyone else the chances of the GOP holding the House this fall are slim and none. He’s got NO chance if he forces fifteen or twenty of his people in what are called “Biden Districts” into voting in a way that guarantees their defeat. AND puts a couple dozen more in districts where they only had a five or six point advantage to begin with in danger. However, he’s got a smaller number of crazies trying to hold him hostage.

Johnson however has two things going for him when it comes to keeping the gavel. The GOP doesn’t have anyone to replace him with. Who other than one of the crazies like MTG would want the job at this point? Jordan might still want it but he suffered a major humiliation trying for it before and I doubt he’d want to risk that again.  So with that in mind, and knowing Jeffries knows the same thing Johnson has one other ace in his hand, if he cuts some deals with Jeffries and Jeffries doesn’t push too hard Democrats can and will bail Johnson out. He won’t be Speaker come January, and not even in GOP leadership but he can keep the job, along with the extra salary and perks until then. At this point I figure he’ll take it and be thankful.

As for MTG, it’s interesting that the motion to vacate she filed was unprivileged. What that means in practice is that if gets referred to committee. In theory it might never come up for a vote. For reasons I’ve stated already, and the fact that most House GOPers don’t want any part of another Speaker selection sh*t-show that motion will languish in committee. Now, MTG can always refile it as a PRIVILEGED motion which would require a vote within two days. And the very thing most GOPers (not just in the House) don’t want to see will once again dominate the news. For how long is anyone’s guess but I think it’s safe to say it will reach levels of ugly that will make our eyes and ears bleed.

This is complicated as hell with multiple moving parts. Not only does one involved have to navigate the present but look ahead to what’s coming. I suspect MTG would have trouble winning a game of checkers. Whether she’s actually trying to set up herself to get the Speaker’s Gavel herself, or simply trying to get it for someone who will do what she wants the Speaker to do I can’t say. But this isn’t checkers. It’s chess and not just the kind someone like me was once able to play (I used to be pretty good. Not great but good) but grand master level chess.  The kind where the players can see the whole board six or seven moves into the future. She is WAY the hell out of her depth.

No, MTG is playing the “Wizard’s Chess” from the Harry Potter movies – where when an opponent takes piece it get’s smashed!  It would be fun to see but I don’t see it happening. As I said there’s a real concern that doing to Johnson what they did to McCarthy would turn out to be an even bigger disaster.  No, Johnson I think isn’t going anywhere except to meetings with Leader Jeffries to hammer out some deals to ensure the House limps along, and at least passes a few must pass items before (mercifully) this Congress gavels to a close at the end of the year. Consider this:

Representative Matt Gaetz, a Florida Republican who led the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, told NBC News he believes ousting Johnson could end with a Democratic speaker.

“We’d have Republicans cross over. I worry that we’ve got Republicans who would vote for [House Minority Leader] Hakeem Jeffries at this point. I really do. I take no joy in saying that. But you can only vacate the speaker if you know that the party leadership won’t change hands. I knew that with certainty last time. I don’t know it with certainty this time,” he said.

If Bratty Matty Gaetz is willing to say something like that publicly, it’s a safe bet quite a few others are thinking it privately. Where does that leave us? With Johnson remaining Speaker and compromising with Jeffries on critical matters to remain so. And MTG looking STUPID. Again.