No, I am not making a concrete prediction. I last did that 5 years ago when I coronated Hillary the night before the election, and I’m still spitting out black feathers. No, what I am doing today is logically extrapolating. So there.
Right now the polling looks stable enough, Gavin Newsom is highly likely to survive his recall today. And the polls aren’t the only ones that think that way. Leading GOP contender Larry Elder had his campaign start a website pimping for legal fees, since the only reason he lost 28 hours later was because the race was rigged against him. And here I thought that the Psychic Friends Hotline had gone out of business.
But in cruising the cable news shows today, I also kept hearing a small but experienced former and current GOP strategists crying over their spilt milk, and it was all on one subject that I have taken quite an interest for the last several weeks. Their saga goes like this.
Their sad litany went like this. If Newson hangs on tonight to finish his term, the GOP actually blew a golden opportunity to resurrect the ghost of Schwarzenegger in 2003. As recently as a month ago, Newsom was in deep shit. Most polls showed the race within the margin of error, with about 48% wanting to retain Newsom, and 46% wanting to give him the Denver boot. Either way Newsom was screwed, since he had to clear 50% to be retained.
The GOP had succeeded in making the recall a referendum on Newsom, and it was working. Newsom had already alienated parts of his Latino minority base, as well as some base supporters with his flopping on mask mandates and a stalled vaccination policy. Most importantly for the GOP, they actually had a couple of mainstream conservative candidates in the field with statewide name recognition. The kind that could excite the base, make lots of appearances, and offer a sane alternative to the unpopular Newsom. The ghost of Schwarzenegger was in the air. After all, they didn’t have to win, they only had to keep Newson under 50%.
But then, there had to be Larry Elder. Of course there did, after all, it wouldn’t be a party without Potatohead! And just like his racist mentor, The Cheeto Prophet, he immediately sucked every last atom of every and air out of the room. For months now, Elder has led the field of opposition with a crushing 24-28% share of the vote. And in the last 3 weeks, the Democrats have successfully turned the recall into a referendum on Hitler’s Handmaiden. And Newsom looks to cruise home.
This is The Elder Effect that I spoke of in the title to watch for in 2022. And it is one of the major reasons why I refuse to buy into the doom and gloom predictions for 2022. Because Trump already has a long naughty or nice list of GOP incumbents he wants to fuck with. And as I wrote yesterday, his popularity as leader of the GOP is down to 63%, and only 51% want him to run again. And in 2020, white suburban women, and white women in general put the GOP on probation, electing down ballot GOP candidates, while telling Trump to piss off.
Especially with McCarthy and the House all in on racist Trump stupidity, you can count on at least one, if not more Trombies on primary ballots pretty much everywhere. And since the Trump base are still pretty much the only ones who will show up to vote in the primaries, one of them will win. And give Democratic challengers and incumbents immediate ammo to blow them out of the water with. This could be critical in suburban swing districts, especially with minority population making gerrymandering harder to prefect, the path is fraught.
The Senate is even more fraught, because there is no gerrymandering to save them. Stacey Abrams and the activists are loaded for bear to get Rafael Warnock a full term. Marco Rubio is damaged goods in Florida, especially after calling on Biden to sack General Milley for making sure that Traitor Tot from starting a nuclear war with China. Democrat Tim Ryan, who seems almost a clone for the popular Sherrod Brown in Ohio is running for an open Senate seat. Does the GOP have a sane alternative to him? Who says that walking Dead Chuck Grassley survives a challenge from the right in Iowa? And Pennsylvania has an open seat where the insane state legislature wants to start a forensic review of the 2020 election. Did I mention that PA flipped back blue in 2020? And don’t even get me started on Mark Kelly in Arizona.
This is The Elder Effect, and it’s coming soon to a primary ballot near you. And then it will likely be on a 2022 general election near you. Trump isn’t going to give up, and the GOP writ large is not going to give up on him until they suffer a catastrophic loss with him in charge. Hurry Watson! The game is afoot!
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