Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary last night. Whoop-de-do. He started his victory drivel with a lie about winning New Hampshire twice in the general election, when he lost both times, and ended with incoherent snarling threats against the last woman standing, Nikki Haley.

You all know me. Rather than go off half cocked, I prefer to wait 24-36 hours to see some exit polling and post election sub tab breakdowns before I start hopping on my soapbox and shouting through a bullhorn. Right now Trump’s campaign team should be holding nonstop 5 alarm meetings, and telling Traitor Tot to take one of those memory pills that come from jellyfish, sit down, shut up, and listen!

Nikki Haley did everything she wanted to last night in New Hampshire, which means that she did everything that Americans For Prosperity wanted her to. True, she failed miserably at the task of peeling off any hard core Trump voters, but who cares? She has never tried that since day one of the campaign, nor is it her goal.

Nikki Haley did her job in three specific locations, urban GOP enclaves, GOP suburbs, and upper income exurban areas. And she did it with the two Achilles Heels Trump has, one on each foot. Suburban white GOP women, and even more importantly, college educated Independent voters.

Almost every time those tabs and sub tabs came up, Haley cleaned Traitor Tot’s clock, often by double digits. Which is the whole goal, and also a 5 alarm fire for Team Trump, sin ce most general election states more closely resemble New Hampshire than Iowa or South Carolina.

And that’s the whole point. Look, in a way Nikki Haley is almost doing a public service announcement in the political environment. Haley is not going to be the 2024 GOP candidate, and she sure as sh*t isn’t going to be the next President. But here’s why she’s providing the political version of a public service.

Ever since the post 2020 nonsensical lawsuits, and the apocalyptic January 6th insurrection, if you’re not a serious enough Trombie to fork over the baksheesh to participate on Bullsh*t Social, then you likely haven’t heard much of anything from His Lowness for the last three years. His POS social media site is pretty much his only social media contact. And since he lost, the networks have no longer given him the bully pulpit coverage due to a President. Trump has pretty much been a no show factor in mass media.

And as we all know, Absence makes the heart grow fonder. Well, maybe not exactly fonder when it’s Trump, maybe more like indifferent. But when you’ve gone three years without the daily full body immersion of Trump in the media, it’s easy to see why time would dull some of the raw emotions of just what an atrocious pr*ck he was when he was in your head every day, every hour.

And that’s the public service. Trump can run from the primary debates, why punch down and take some head shots yourself when there’s nothing in it for you? But he can’t run from Haley. She’s a legitimate presidential candidate, and she’s getting legitimate presidential candidate media coverage.

And she’s hitting El Pendejo Presidente where it hurts him the most, his ego. She pityingly bemoans President Biden’s loss of mental acumen, and then immediately turns around and gives several specific examples pf Trump doing exactly the same thing! And winds up by asking voters if they actually want a general election matchups between two 80 year old dotards, or someone new? Trump has clearly heard this, since he’s hysterically firing back with the usual feverish bullsh*t.

And it’s working. If what I saw from the entrance and exit polls in New Hampshire, there’s a brand new sub tab that we’re going to be talking about soon. And that’s the Trump Never Trump voter. And that sub tab is Trump’s worst nightmare.

I started bumping into these people in interviews on CNN and MSNBC in the lead up to the New Hampshire primary. A reporter would ask a random voter, Who are you voting for on Tuesday? And the reply would be, Mikki Haley. The follow up question would almost inevitably be, What is it you like so much about Nikki Haley? To which the answer was almost as inevitably, She’s not Donald Trump.

And these aren’t just a couple of random soreheads that the reporters managed to uncover. The entrance and exit polling showed a sizeable swath of voters who, both in 2016 and 2020, whether enthusiastically or by holding their noses, voted for Trump both cycles. And now the scales have fallen from their eyes, and the last thing they ever want to see in their lives is Trump’s name on a ballot.

I cannot tell you how critical this is, for two interlocking reasons. First, Trump has a rock hard ceiling. And not just Trump, but the entire GOP in the era of Trump. If you look at 2017 and 2020, you see that Trump hard caps out at right about 48.7%. And if you look at the midterms of 2018 and 2022, when Traitor Tot desperately tried to make the elections about him, the GOP caps out at about 48.4%. Trump, whether as a candidate or a party leader is incapable of delivering an electoral majority!

Here’s the second interlocking circle. Due to the insane polarization of our politics, 2024 is once again going to come down to a handful of vital swing states like NV, AZ, MI, WI, GA and PA. And in every single one of those states, the final outcome is highly likely to come down to a handful of critical counties, districts, and even precincts. And rather than Biden having to do the heavy lifting of convincing these voters to come out and vote for him, so much easier if Trump himself finally pissed off enough of his own voters that they either vote for Biden or just stay home.

Sweet Jesus, I hope like hell that Nikki Haley pulls a Bernie Sanders, knowing that she can’t win, but staying in the race through the last primary. because the longer she stays in, first of all, I get more and more tab and sub tab information to look for these kinds of trends. And second, the longer she stays in, the longer she pisses off Traitor Tot more and more, and the more that he himself continues to show his own voters why so many of them were secretly glad when he lost. Don’t touch that dial.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.

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7 COMMENTS

  1. Sing it brother! Sing it loud and sign it proud. Those in the executive suites and boardrooms of news outlets WANT this primary to be over. To do exactly what Trump wants and anoint, to coronate him as the nominee. The DON’T want the “talent” to be talking much about this stuff any more than they want them asking why the fuck the DC Circuit has taken so long to rule on Trump’s immunity appeal. THEY WANT TRUMP! Why? I can’t imagine because he’s not going to generate anything like the ratings and revenue boom they got in 2016. Hell, his screaming slobbering MAGAs walk out on him halfway through rallies after tiring of hearing the same old shit. With so many channels to look at (whether on TV or streaming packages) what makes them think people will stay glued to their screens during the incessant FREE (to Trump) airing of the 2016 Trump infomercial?

    My question is whether Haley realizes she’s crossed the Rubicon. There’s no going back at this point. Her only hope for a future is to bear in mind a trait of Trump’s that drew MAGAs to him in the first place – their perception of him as a “strong leader.” Sure, many of them will be butt–hurt enough to never forgive her and never vote again. But some will take a hard look at her in 2028 if she does a firm, more polite version of Christie and takes the fight straight to Trump.

    But the main thing is what you’ve written. If Haley stays in as she promises to and which AFP seems to be willing to support she can carve big chunks out of Trump and his candidacy.

    11
  2. I know we’re not really supposed to say this, but trumps ranting speeches are beginning to sound more and more like the hitler bunker speeches. just my two cents

    17
  3. and they do get hammered in NH. they even have State liquor stores
    so you have to goto the same old place in your town everyday except sunday
    in order to buy liquor.🤷🏻‍♂️🥳

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