Look, everybody knows how horrible war is, that’s a no brainer. But the funny thing is that you never quite realize just how horrible war is until you actually live through one. World War II showed pretty much every nation on the planet just how devastating the cost of war could be. And people appeared to listen.
In the aftermath of WWII, the US passed The Marshall Plan to rebuild not only Europe, but former enemies as well, with the hopes of making future war inimaginable since everybody prospered. The United Nations was formed and headquartered in New York, to give the world a place to go to solve its problems peacefully. And the NATO alliance was formed, in an attempt to isolate and neutralize Russia. Not a bad start.
But what has happened warwise since then? Not much. The world was tired of war. We went to war in Korea, and fought to a draw, but who in the west really cared, or even noticed Korea. We went to war in Vietnam, but again, while the graphic news footage of the carnage of the Vietnam war was enough to stoke intense domestic backlash against the war, who in the west really cared about Vietnam.
After 9/11 we went to war in Afghanistan, and this tie it mattered. Because the United States was a NATO signatory, and had been attacked, so NATO immediately invoked article 5, and suddenly Europe had skin in the game. But it was still largely an American war, and western Europe had little to no involvement with Afghanistan. And the same for the misled Bush Lite invasion of Iraq, which NATO declined to participate in.
You see where this is going? Since 1945, war has pretty much become a relic to the western European mind. Like the movie Demolition Man, set in post apocalypse southern California, where all weapons and conflicts had been banished from the body politic. Certainly what was happening in those far flung places was tragic, but they had no real effect on western Europe.
And then along came Vladimir Putin and his misguided invasion of Ukraine. And that brought it to a whole new level for western Europe. Ukraine isn’t some far flung, underdeveloped place nobody really cares about. Ukraine is a fully developed, western style democracy in eastern Europe. They are a friend and a trading partner. And now, for no good reason, they’re under existential assault by a powerful adversary. As my favorite Sesame Street meme reads, Shit just got real.
Because if Putin can do it in Ukraine, he can do it anywhere in eastern, central or even western Europe. When the Baltic states and western Europe look at Ukraine, they can see their own future if they don’t get their shit firmly together. And the thought of it scares them shitless. Fortunately, once again the United States has been there to answer to battle call, and rally the world.
Look, from where I’m sitting, Putin has already lost in Ukraine. When he couldn’t use his superior forces to force Ukraine into submission in the first two weeks, he bought himself his own personal Vietnam. At this point, I can’t see how Putin negotiates something that even looks like a draw, much less a victory before exiting Ukraine. And personally he’s finished. He’s now a rogue dictator, nobody will deal with Russia as long as he’s in power. Just ask North Korea how that feels.
With his ill advised invasion of Ukraine, Putin finally reminded western Europe of just how fragile their democracies and way of life are. For the first time since 1945, western Europe has been exposed to the horrors of modern warfare in a western democracy. And so has the US population. And the European nations are taking notes. Sweet Jesus, even Germany has announced that it will retool from a peacetime militia to a standing defensive army in the next 5 years. And Sweden, Finland and Denmark are now all considering asking for admittance to NATO. As it turns out, Putin actually awoke The Sleeping Bear.
None of this would be possible without the incredible bravery and courage of the Ukrainian military, nor the Ukrainian civilian population that has answered the call to man the ramparts. And who would have thought that a former stand up comic and comedy television actor would turn out to be a lion with balls of titanium? The world owes them all a debt of gratitude.
“After 9/11 we went to war in Afghanistan, and this tie it mattered. Because the United States was a NATO signatory, and had been attacked, so NATO immediately invoked article 5, and suddenly Europe had skin in the game.”
Actually, if I’d been the head of pretty much any other NATO country after 9/11, I would’ve told Dubya to take “Article 5” and shove it up his fucking ass. After all, where was the US in responding to ANY of the dozens, if not hundreds, of terrorist attacks that had taken place on their soil or to their civilians in the decades before? The US treated EACH AND EVERY SINGLE TERRORIST INCIDENT before 9/11 as if it were merely a “domestic issue” (with regards to Britain and the IRA, that could be a legitimate argument) but, even when Americans were victims of terrorist incidents, not a single one of the NATO signatories thought of invoking Article 5.
The 9/11 hijackers were already on American soil when they planned and carried out the operation–just as every prior terrorist incident that took place in Europe over the previous 3 or so decades had been planned by people who were already in those countries or were in position in those countries to commence their attack.
Would Article 5 had been more relevant if the hijackers had boarded a plane in Britain or Germany or France and then crashed into the World Trade Center Towers? Yes. But, here’s the full text of Article 5:
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”
How does any of that fail to apply to ANY of the terrorist attacks that plagued Europe throughout the 70s? I have NEVER understood why Article 5 *suddenly* needed to be invoked after 9/11 just because America suffered a serious calamity involving terrorists. US embassies had come under attack by terrorist groups in the previous few years but those didn’t merit invoking Article 5. Hell, the WTC was almost brought down andthe Oklahoma City Murrah Federal Building had been brought down less than a decade earlier, and the Atlanta Olympics in 1996 had been marred by a serious act of terror, but US officials treated those more as “crimes” rather than actions warranting invoking NATO’s involvement.
What is desperately needed is a Yamamoto/Yamamoto Faction within the Russian military that will do what the legendary Yamamoto would/could not do prior to the full WWII – depose the government and take over. Conduct a coup. Most people in this country including those of my parent’s generation who fought in WWII understood little about the Pacific region and even less about the inner workings of Imperial Japan and its military. Yamamoto was a gifted officer and leader and innovative. If Japan had developed a fearsome Navy largely through his efforts (we wouldn’t realize how large and powerful it was prior to Pearl Harbor) and he is correctly credited for the Imperial Navy’s aggressiveness the fact is he was no hawk. On the contrary. He openly opposed his country’s entering China in 1931, the formal initiation of the second Sino-Japanese war in 1937, their entering into the Tripartite Act in 1940 and even war with the United States.
Yamamoto had spent time in America twice, and had travelled extensively & often eschewed the trappings of his official position and the perks it offered to see things up close and interact with everyday people here. He even encouraged other officers (and even diplomatic aides) to take buses instead of taxis to get to know this country and its people. He knew his America and while he was well aware of the strong and widespread isolationist sentiment he also knew that if provoked into war his country would wind up overmatched. His advice to then still Prime Minister Konoye (an others including contacts in the Imperial Family itself) was that if war with the United States came he’d run wild for six months to a year but after than he had no confidence.
Yamamoto was overmatched in his own country’s military by the more influential Army which was far more hawkish. In fact he lived under the threat of assassination through the 1930s and when Tojo became Prime Minister he was reaassigned to what would be a backwater post – and probably assassinated since he wouldn’t have the protection he’d been afforded when he was given his command and spent most of his time aboard ship some years earlier. However, his popularity in the Navy and his contacts within the Imperial family got him reinstated to the command we know him for. Yet right up to the attack on Pearl Harbor he believed and stated war with the U.S. was a bad idea.
However, his sense of duty to his Emperor and country was such that when given an order, even one he was certain would likely lead to disaster for his country was such his personal sense of honor and duty required him to do his utmost to fulfill it. I could write much more about him but may have already lost my audience here so I will move on to the here and now.
Unlike Imperial Japan of that era in which the Emperor was believed to be a divine ruler, the dictators of Russia and before it the USSR have used their power to inspire “loyalty” via fear. And therein lies what hope we have. Taking out a dictator, whether merely deposing him or killing him isn’t trying to kill a “god” being but rather a gamble that you can carry out the task AND survive to reap some of the good will and/or benefits from having done so. Still, it is a daunting prospect, especially for someone who has spent a lifetime obeying orders whether we are talking about military leaders in a free country or a dictatorship. Also, in the latter the price of failure is brutal and not just for the person(s) who fail. It extends to their loved ones, professional associates and even friends. And that might happen anyway if people other than the dictator himself aren’t cut off at the knees.
So for those who wonder why it hasn’t already happened there’s your answer. At the same time, even if it’s history they’ve learned from books or handed down via a couple of generations from family in career military families in Russia there is the fact that military purges did great damage to not just the Russian army but cost the country in general in the past. And Putin seems to be warming up to carrying out a Stalin level amount of purging. Only this time the only ally on which they might, only might it must be noted is a country with which there are centuries of conflict. China. That has to be appalling to Russian military leaders in a way you and I can’t begin to comprehend. So while I don’t hold out a lot of hope, and know that what there is will diminish if Putin’s initial purge turns into a widespread one there is for the moment a window of opportunity.
I’m all too aware of the adage of be careful what you wish for, but a coup would I think be in the best interests of everyone including Russia itself. IF that happens and we’re lucky, the new (military) rulers will be practical minded ones and thought they will insist on keeping their nukes and other, conventional arms they will recognize that the damage to their country is only economic and diplomatic and will contribute (sell) raw materials needed to rebuild Ukraine.
Yeah, with Russian generals getting killed or fired right now, I’m not seeing that happening.
There is I believe a window of opportunity but it’s already closing (Putin has already dumped ten or so top military advisors) and will do so with increasing speed. That’s why my hope is limited.
If Putin had a functioning rational brain (and apparently he doesn’t, nor was he ever as smart as he and everyone else assumed, in the mode of Trump), he would stop the war, pull out, blame the generals and others he plans to murder (“purge”), and be done. He would be in power and Russia would have no fighting force for years and hopefully remain a pariah, along with everyone who supports it. But then the same could be said for the US and its Republican overlords and violent corrupt “leaders” (who have been led for years by Mitch McConnell and still are).
To a significant degree I agree with you. Admitting defeat in Afghanistan did in Gorbachev but he got a comfy retirement at least instead of bullet to the back of the head in Lefortovo. A bullet Putin no doubt would have been happy to fire. But the lesson is there if only Putin can string together a couple of days of rational thinking. The Soviet General who conceived and designed that disastrous Afghanistan invasion didn’t actually ever go there. He was in Moscow and survived the whole mess by pointing to his “brilliant” (on paper) plan and claiming it was poorly carried out. This is rather different. Putin was directly involved in the Ukraine invasion planning but he could always make the claim he just “suggested” the actual invasion and/or “asked questions” about its feasability and costs/consequences and that his advisors lied to him. However, time is running out (I think) on him being able to get away with selling that shit to the Russian people.
It would also hope if we could all overcome our isolationism I do understand wy the media falls for it (i.e. ratings) but we reallly need to outgrow it. If the map I just uploaded shows, you’ll see better what I mean.
Nice idea. But wrong.
I was a navy wife for 15 of the 33 years of my marriage. We know what war is like. Every time our spouses deploy,, we know they may come home in a,flags draped coffin.
I came of age during Nam. I saw the price vets paid. In PTSD,,in amputations ,in addictions to self medicate for PTSD, in broken families and domestic violence.
Speak for yourself. And anyone who tells me I am not a goid enough liberals get more leftist with age can kiss my feet.
THANKS MURPH … having been born just at the end of WWII and growing up in a Marine Corps town w father a Lockheed design engineer … and hubby a well educated Nam Vet. I am right with you.