The House Ethics Committee Investigates Santos. Buh-buh-buh-bye George. Here’s Why

It’s official. The House Ethics Committee announced today that it is opening an investigation into GOP industrial manure spreader George Santos. Santos himself acknowledged the action with a tweet saying he is fully cooperating, and will have no further comment.

Actually, I’m more than slightly optimistic here. The House Ethics Committee is one of the rare examples of bipartisanship, simply because it has to be. Unlike most other House and Senate committees, where the party in power has at least one more seat on the committee, the House Ethics Committee is equally split between the two parties, with the Chair going to the party in power. A simple majority vote is needed to reach a recommendation, and there are no tie breakers.

But here’s the real reason I’m guardedly optimistic. Almost all Ethics Committee hearings and deliberations are held in secret. This tends to discourage bomb throwers from signing on, since they can’t get any face time in front of a camera. Also, since this committee deals with the integrity of the institution and reputation of the House, members tend to put the House over political tribalism.

Here’s the funny part. Normally the committee response to a problem child like Santos would be to slow walk the investigation through next November, hoping Santos solves the problem himself by losing his reelection bid. But Santos is such a one-man-demolition-derby that the committee is establishing a special subcommittee to deal with Santos exclusively, with an eye of finishing by next March, before general campaign season.

This is a nightmare scenario for Santos. First, he’s not going to have much if any partisan support on the subcommittee, everybody hates his guts. Second, it’s a two step process. First the committee will prepare a written questionnaire about the size of the Toledo phone book for Santos to personally fill out. After they digest that, Santos will have a closed door interview in front of the subcommittee. And if my understanding of the rules is correct, since this process deals with House rules and not criminal liability, unlike Traitor Tot Santos has no 5th Amendment rights.

And in terms of political reality, this is a gift from God for Squeaker Cavein’ McCarthy. Santos is the dead fish tetherball that keeps swinging around to smack McCarthy in the chops. But McCarthy has no choice but to take the humiliation because he needs Santos’ vote. But not forever, only for now, and that’s where McCarthy’s salvation lies.

Follow the timeline here, and you’ll see what I mean. Let’s say the subcommittee recommends in February that Santos be expelled from congress, and the committee as a whole approves it. In early March McCarthy gleefully brings the motion to the floor for a full House vote, giving his blessing to the entire GOP New York delegation to vote this monkey off of their reelection backs. The bipartisan vote succeeds, and Santos slithers back home to the Big Apple in disgrace.

The downside is that McCarthy loses Santos’ vote for floor bills. The upside is, Who cares?! There’s no way New York state could hold a special election until at least mid May if not later, and at that point Santos’ vote is moot. It doesn’t matter who wins. Because the House is already going to be in full reelection mode, and the only truly necessary vote comes in September for a continuing resolution for the federal budget. And despite the expected GOP brinksmanship, it will pass with strong Democratic support simply because McCarthy and the GOP can’t afford a government shutdown six weeks before election.

Man, talk about a win-win situation. McCarthy gets to hide behind the Ethics Committee recommendation to get rid of his pain in the ass without looking like a traitor to the base, and at a time when the seat really doesn’t matter. And the Democrats get to spend the next year watching McCarthy keep getting socked in the puss by the dead fish tetherball, and trying to skunk spray Santos’ stench all over the GOP New York swing delegation. Which should be easy considering the fact that the media keeps coming up with more and more GOP MAGAt’s with more bullshit than ink on their resumes. I love it when a plan comes together.