I swear, the longer this goes on, the better things get for Democrats. And in the wonderful world of electoral politics, where the cycles sometimes seem to all run together, it doesn’t take that long.
We all know about the current, and apparently to go on forever power struggle in the GOP over Trump’s potential role in the party going forward. traditionalists like Cheney, McConnell and Kinzinger are fighting tooth and nail to minimize Trump’s influence, simply because they know they can’t even pretend to compete in 2022 without beaucoup corporate bucks, which won’t come if Trump is even visible in the closet. And pretty much everybody else is fighting with them to let Trump rule the roost. And never the twain shall meet.
And it’s about to get worse. On Sunday, His Lowness will make his triumphal return to the spotlight, as the keynote speaker before CPAC. And that is huge, because Trump has been blocked from wide circulation by social media, this is his first major public appearance, and it will be covered live in it’s entirety by most right and far right outlets. I expect it will go at least 1:20, and full of vitriol against his enemies, which will only pour gasoline to the fire.
But see, here’s the thing. You’re going to laugh when you read the next sentence, but by the time you finish reading the next paragraph, you won’t be laughing anymore, because you know it’s true. And the statement is that, believe it or not, the 2022 midterms are almost upon us.
Be honest, do y’all think that every time the midterms roll around, names just magically appear on ballots for the primaries? Of course not. There is a lengthy and boring process that takes a ton of time. Candidates need to get approved petitions for signatures to run, get the mandatory signatures to appear on the ballot, get their petitions and signatures approved, and get a slot on the ballot. And for high ticket seats like, say, oh, I don’t know, a US Senate seat? The party leadership isn’t just going to trust a pivotal role liker that the the normal process. Party leadership aggressively goes out and recruits what they feel is the best talent available to run for the seat, and promises their support.
But, in the era of Trump, high level recruiting for prominent seats was a gut wrenching nightmare. Just ask Mitch McConnell. On the day that McConnell swore in his Senate majority in 2017, he already had visions of filibuster proof 60 seat majority sugar plums dancing in his head. The 2018 map was that bad for the Democrats.
And then Donald Trump took over, and everything went to hell in a handbasket. Come the summer of 2017, when McConnell came a-calling, looking to recruit top talent for what he perceived as the weakest Democratic seats in the Senate, he was drilling a dry hole. Nobody, and I mean nobody who envisioned a continuing career in mainstream GOP politics after Trump was gone, wanted anything to do with having his or her name on a ballot when Trump was the dominant persona of the party. And McConnell made chickenshit gains in the Senate in 2018, and was tres bummed about it.
And here we go again. It’s just about time for McConnell to hit the road again, trying to recruit top talent in his quest to flip blue seats red, and retake the Senate majority role, and he’s in deep kim-chi. And it isn’t just about trying to flip Democratic seats, it’s suddenly about trying to hold what he already has.
In 2020, GOP incumbent Thom Tillis barely held on to his seat in North Carolina. And senior Senator Richard Burr is not running for reelection in 2022, which negates the incumbent advantage of name recognition and fundraising in place. Pennsylvania GOP incumbent Pat Toomey is jumping ship, in a state that flipped back blue in 2020, again neutering the incumbent advantage for the party. And who knows what will happen to Ron Johnson’s seat in Wisconsin, now that he is apparently sitting in the passenger seat of that Tesla heading for Mars.
And El Pendejo Presidente continues to hold sway over all, and will for as long as he possibly can. What sane conservative, who took the years to climb up the GOP power structure ladder, would want his or her name associated in any way with a party that is still, even debatably beholden to Trump? Just like in 2018, McConnell is going to be left with second and third rate candidates, who are going to need more support than the party may be able to provide if the big money sits it out.
And it’s not just the Senate. In 2018, the Democrats flipped 40 House seats when tens of millions of white suburban GOP women came out in revolt over Pig Boy. Many of them flipped back in 2020, when those same women took their grievances out directly on Trump, and didn’t penalize the down ballot ticket.
But this is still the party of Trump. I’m betting that lots of those new incumbents get primary challenges from the right, from Trombies desperate to serve the new master. Whether they win or lose, if white suburban GOP women get even a sniff of Trump’s influence, they will come out again in 2022 to put another stake in Trumppula’s heart.
OK, so there ya go. GOP strategist Rick Wilson put it perfectly with the title of his book, Everything Trump touches, dies. Trump will not give up control of the GOP until it’s pried from his cold, dead fingers, simply because it’s such a cash cow, with all of the vulnerable suckers to mine for donations that he can siphon off for his own personal use. And as long as Trump is active in the party, big money will stay away, and they won’t be able to find electable candidates. God, I love it when they eat their young!
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I’m sure he will be measured and not seem at all like a mad hermit who has a map covered in pins and red yarn on his wall.
2022 will be a fight. But I’m optimistic that if we deliver, and beat back this pandemic, and get the economy rolling, that this will be enough to beat the midterm curse and expand our majorities in both chambers.
Trump’s speech won’t just be covered by every “conservative” outlet unless you consider all mainstream media to be “conservative outlets,” which you could. Sadly all those media outlets currently ignoring the BidenWhite House’s informative press conference will carry it in its entirety.
Republicans in Ohio have a problem with this:
“What sane conservative, who took the years to climb up the GOP power structure ladder, would want his or her name associated in any way with a party that is still, even debatably beholden to Trump?”
They don’t do “sane conservatives” here. Currently we have two announced Republicans running for the seat Portman is vacating. Each is trying to out-Trump the other by posting photos of their opponent with John Kasich and Mike DeWine, the last and current governors and most prominent Republicans in Ohio — and considered insufficiently worshipful of Trump and therefore toxic. This is going to destroy support in the middle and across a large swath of so-called “reasonable” Republicans and make the election more difficult if one of them is the candidate, as is likely. Neither can pivot to the “center.”
It seemed there was an exodus of traditional repubs, before Trump. I remember when Ted Cruz was first elected and a lot of them headed for the exits, as the tea party seemed dominant. So it really surprised me when Kay Bailey Hutchison came forward to serve under Trump. I think now, is even more reason for people with common sense to avoid the republican party, at least until Trump is gone from the scene.