The Big Lie may finally be starting to unravel, and more quickly than we may have hoped for. In Arizona, the GOP dominated Maricopa ‘count Elections Board has finally grown a pair, called The Big Lie out for what it is, and demanded that the Arizona Senate admit as much, and stop the sham vote audit. Some Arizona GOP Senators who voted to authorize the audit are now publicly expressing regret, admitting that it makes the state look like a bunch of boneheads. In Michigan, GOP Senate led attempt to have the idiot Cyber Ninjas conduct a similar audit pf the voting in one county fell apart when the judge threw it out of court.
But that’s just the appetizer. Here’s the thing that you have to keep a close eye on over the next couple of weeks. Tomorrow the US House will vote an an agreement between the House Chair and the GOP ranking member to form a bipartisan 9/11 style commission to look into the January 6th commission. House Minority Paramecium Kevin McCarthy is having cardia kittens over the deal, claiming that he never signed off, even though the ranking member made him a part of the negotiations. The bill will pass, with expected GIO crossovers, and the specter if a GOP jailbreak crossover that could demolish McCarthy’s already negligible authority over the caucus.
But here’s the McGuffin. Once the bill passes the House, it goes on to the Senate, and Senate Minority Leader McConnell is playing it very mum as to how he will whip his caucus. And there is a good reason for him to do so, and one which bodes ill for McCarthy.
Mainly because the two men are on opposite sides of the coin on this issue, and there is no love lost between McCarthy and McConnell. McConnell came out after the January 6th riot, and laid the blame solely at the feet of former President Trump. So did McCarthy, but following a Trumper Tantrum, McCarthy changed course and went to Mar-A-Lago for his spanking. McCarthy’s opposition to the commission is purely to protect Trump.
McConnell has never backed down from his initial criticism of Trump, and weathered the expected Trump storm of criticism that followed. But McConnell is bullet proof, having been just reelected to a new 6 year term.
Mitch McConnell is in the hurt locker. Whether Ron Johnson in Wisconsin runs again next year or not, McConnell has open seats next year in states that Biden won in 2020. McConnell has clearly already washed his hands of Trump, he never refers to him in public statements. It is clear that McConnell has read the tea leaves that for whatever residual Trump support there is in the party, the long term prognosis is a return to normalcy.
Which puts the ball firmly in McConnell’s court. Make no mistake about it, Mitch McConnell is obsessed with one thing and one thing only, his own power. It is infinitely harder for a statewide candidate, such as US Senator to get elected than a safely gerrymandered House candidate or incumbent, McConnell wants to get the Majority Leader spot back, and if that means throwing Kevin McCarthy under the bus, then so be it.
This is going to be the battle to watch for the net week or so. The bill will pass the House tomorrow, the only suspense if how many GOP representatives will cross over to support it. The only question is whether or not McConnell will whip votes to keep the Democrats from gaining a cloture vote of 60. After 30 years of watching Mitch McConnell, I can’t find any reason for him to bail Kevin McCarthy out and fuck up his attempts to retake the Senate in 2022.
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This, of course, is assuming McConnell’s hold on his caucus is any more secure than McCarthy’s. Not a safe bet.