Those that do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. And politically, todays GOP is the Alfred E Neuman pf politics. Sitting there in the corner on a stool, with an idiot grin on their faces, and a pointy paper hat on their heads.
Way back when Roe v Wade was decided, it was one of the most divisive issues in the country. In fact at the time, the majority of Americans disapproved of abortion on demand, according to public polling. Especially among mostly conservative, Republican Evangelical voters. And so a 50 year odyssey began with the cynical GOP using abortion as an issue to motivate their anti abortion base to donate and get out to vote.
But then, as I like to say, A funny thing happened on the way to the quorum. The GOP’s aging, monolithic, largely far right Evangelical base didn’t change over the years, but pretty much everybody else did! And by the time the train wreck Roberts SCOTUS overturned Roe v Wade, polling showed that a clean 67% of poll respondents favored abortion on demand in most circumstance. The GOP had miscalculated.
But stupid is as stupid does. Overturning Roe was bad enough for the GOP, and a canary in the coal mine for 2022. But the MAGA GOP is nothing if not political imeciles, and so the GOP controlled states gleefully jumped into the mosh pit to try to pass the most restrictive anti abortion laws possible. With 67% of the American people disagreeing with them.
The 2022 midterms were a disaster for the GOP. Not only did they lose a seat in the Senate, they barely managed to retake the House in a year where they should have rolled. Worse yet, even in deep red states with pro abortion referendums on the ballot passed with widespread support. The GOP had gotten ahead of their skis and miscalculated.
What does Blade like to say? Some motherfuckers are always trying to ice skate uphill. Even with the mental defectives in charge of the GOP, they realized that they had lost their most powerful inducement to keep the far right Evangelicals in line. And as the results of the 2022 midterms showed, when too many Evangelicals stayed home, the GOP had to find a new way to motivate them.
And they settled on another time honored, well chewed bone, the LGBTQ and Transgender communities. There were two basic problems with this. First, their base is increasingly older far right Evangelicals, and they don’t know shit about gays, they were motivated by abortion. Worse yet, the Evangelical church, even the far right Evangelicals are ambivalent on the issues of gay rights.
Bur once again the GOP has shown itself as being incapable of following polling! If the GOP started trying to inflame the far right Evangelicals against the LGBTQ and Trans communities 20 years ago, they may have had a chance to make it stick, another fundraising and voter turnout motivation. But they didn’t.
And now, once again, the GOP is behind the curve. Starting with the Obama decision to not defend the DOMA act in court, and the Obergefell SCOTUS decision, public polling support for LGBTQ and Trans rights is damn near as high as the support for abortion. But this is the thin gruel that GOP has decided to dine on.
And led by Florida Pocket Caesar Ron Pissantis, they’re going to town. In red states nationwide the GOP is trying to restrict healthcare for Trans youth, trying to pretty much ban drag performances anywhere, refusing teachers from even admitting gender or same sex preferences in class, and threatening the parents of Trans children with state child abuse investigation if they try to provide their children with necessary trans medical treatments.
And in doing so, the GOP is sowing the seeds for their long term destruction. because they are pissing off the fastest growing demographic in the country, and the ones the GOP most desperately needs to cultivate. The GOP is a party that is dying of old age, and they need new blood. And the GOP is pissing off the 18-24 age group.
The GOP has already shit in their mess kits. They’ve already pissed off the 18-24 block with their positions on Climate change and gun control. The gun control issue led to the mass migration of A and A+ GOP members in 2018 and 2020. And now the Pissantis led GOP is going after a community that todays youth is extremely supportive of and comfortable with.
Both Trump and DeSantis are playing exclusively to the MAGA base, and that’s the one base that can’t get them elected. And in the process they’re motivating an already highly motivated youth base with social media skills to spare to oppose them. As Snake Plissken said, The more things change, the more they stay the same. don’t touch that dial.