The Big Lie = A Big Thud?

The 2022 midterms are in doubt for a very good reason. Usually the first midterms are nothing more than a referendum on the success of the first two years of the party in power. In that case, while they’ve had some successes, the Democrats are in deep trouble. But this year is different.

This year is different because, for the first time I can remember, there is a second, totally distinct referendum on the ballot regarding the minority party. I honestly can’t recall ever seeing that happen before.

I’ll explain. Normally when a party loses an election, they spend the next two years hammering the other party for being weak and ineffective, and offering bold new leadership plans if they’re given the chance to govern. That’s the way it always works.

Not this time. Trump lost in November of 2020, and for the next 18 months, the only GOP midterm talking point has been Stop The steal! Trump’s ego inability to admit a loss has spawned the ridiculous Big Lie, and the only prayer that a GOP candidate has of getting a Trump endorsement is to show complete, almost religious devotion to The Big Lie.

So we have that rarest of occurrences in a midterm. Two separate referendums, one in each party. The Democrats on their leadership and accomplishments, and the GOP on the success of the Stop The Steal strategy.

And there are at least two early indicators that the GOP’s Stop The steal may be falling as flat as a 20 year old tire. The first is the results Tuesday night in Michigan, where a sane Democrat trounced a MAGA, Q-Anon supporting goof in a district Trump won by double digits, and has been GOP for more than 30 years. Only two explanations, the MAGA moron fired up the Democratic base, along with the Alito decision, or disgusted GOP voters stayed home. Or both.

But the second one is even worse, because it comes from the lips of a Republican himself. In Ohio on Tuesday night, when the results were known, the state Election Board head came out and made an interesting comment, and one he’s probably already regretting as the death threats are probably already rolling in.

In his statement he noted that early results showed that turnout in Ohio actually surpassed 2018 levels. He went on to say that in regards to early mail in ballots, for the first time since Cher got a haircut, GOP mail in ballots actually outpaced Democratic ballots. And then, obviously on a sugar high, he dropped his bombshell.

In response to the success of GOP e-mail voting, he said something like This just goes to show that the vast majority of Ohio voters are aware and confident that their state elections are easy, secure, free, and accurate. Man! Talk about a torpedo under the waterline of the Big Lie hull.

Every Democrat running in Ohio would be committing political malpractice if they don’t run ads showing their opponent spouting off stop The Steal shit, followed by the Elections Board heads statement. And it doesn’t have to stop there. Democrats and their Super PAC’s running nationwide, along with anti Trump groups can run ads of a GOP candidate spouting off big Lie shit, and pivot the same clip of the Ohio elections official.

I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again, because it may be critical. In 2017, there were several House special elections in safe GOP districts. And while the Democrats didn’t flip any seats, they shaved of an amazing average of 17 points off the GOP winning margin the year before, turning several of them into 2-4 point races. We’ll keep watching GOP primary results, but the first puff of an ill wind for the GOP may have just passed by.