No, I’m sorry, as far as I know, Judas Joe and Cactus Barbie were whacked over the heads with a common sense stick. That’s still up in the air. But I heard something else today that lifted my spirits, and these days that can be hard to find.
In 2021, for a variety of reasons, the GOP was forced to hold at least three special runoff primary elections to determine candidates for open House seats. In two of those contests, the Trump anointed candidate lost, which is wonderful news, but the cherry on top was that in all three runoff contests, GOP voter participation was down 15-20%.
This is important, and possibly critical for multiple reasons. First, as I recently wrote, there is a passionate, motivated base of 15-20% in each party that often determines the candidates simply be being the only ones who bother to show up and vote in primaries. Miles Taylor and his group are trying to motivate moderate GOP voters to show up for the primaries, and vote out Trump supported candidates. And if Trump’s most ardent base is beginning to get turned off to the whole process, that will only make Taylor’s job easier, leading to a sane GOP House again.
But more importantly, this adds to a long and growing list of events that I have noted, analyzed, and reported on for more than 5 years now. I can’t decide whether to call it Trump Fatigue, or Rats deserting the SS Trumptamic. Since Trump was sworn in, all of the following have happened;
- In 2017, shortly after inauguration, Trump began dipping into the House GOP gene pool for cabinet members. They were careful to only let the moron choose from safely gerrymandered districts. Yet, in more than a dozen special elections, Democrats overperformed the GOP by 14-20 points. They took 2016 loss margins of 7-21 points, and trimmed them down to 3-7 points
- Also in 2016, Virginia had their off year state elections. They ran the table statewide, and literally came within a coin toss of evening up the House of Delegates.
- And in 2017, Illinois held their off year state elections. In suburban and down state traditional red districts, the Democrats put blue asses in chairs that had never known one since the day the district was created.
- In 2018 in Pennsylvania, a Democratic challenger won a special election in the 17th district, a district so thoroughly gerrymandered that the GOP bragged that they could literally elect a ham sandwich if it had an R on the label. The district was redrawn by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, and Lamb holds it today
- In 2018 the Democrats blew the doors off. In 2016 Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by more than 3 million votes. In 2018 the Democrats doubled that up, beating the GOP by more than 6 million votes nationwide. Trump proved he has the coattails of a t-shirt, watching chosen one after chosen one go down in flames. And Democrats made honest gains in some state houses and legislatures
- In 2019 the state of Kentucky took their turn in the tumbler, holding their off year state elections. And with massive urban turnout, Democrat Andy Bashear bounced Matt I was Trump before Trump Bevan from the Governor’s mansion. Trump campaigned hard for Bevan, including a rally the night before the election. Post election research showed that in the deepest red coal counties to the southeast and southwest, GOP turnout was down 15-25% from 2016, when Trump was on the ticket
- In 2020 Trump got spanked by Biden, yet the Democrats lost most of their House majority. That’s explainable. In 2020, large numbers of mostly white suburban women who either sat out 2018 or voted for Democrats to show their displeasure, returned to the polls. They voted GOP for the down ballot spots, but either voted for Biden, or didn’t vote the top slot at all. And even with their return, Biden still increased the Democrats margin of victory by another million, to 7 million nationwide
- In the 2021 Georgia Senate runoffs, Trump played Sybil. On the one hand, he claimed massive voter fraud stole Georgia in 2020, and voting in the runoffs would be an act of futility. Then he turned around and campaigned for the two GOP candidates. But here’s the McGuffin. After election research showed that in the deep red farming counties to the south, GOP turnout was down 15-20%, and in the deep red Iron Wall across the northern Georgia border, GOP turnout was down 15-25%.
This can no longer be a coincidence. Even when Trump is on the ballot, the GOP gets spanked by millions of votes as the moderate base defects or stays home. And in years when Trump is not on the ballot, 15-25% of the Trump base stays at home and watches reruns of Joanie loves Chachi. And worst of all, it’s starting to cost them state legislative seats.
And now, if it turns out that a significant portion of the highly motivated GOP base, whether Trump supporters or moderates, or both are tuning out to the primary process, this can only go one of two ways. Either Miles Taylor and his group are able to motivate moderate GOP voters out to the polls for the primaries, and start bouncing Trump candidates, including some incumbents, restoring sane candidates to the November ballot, or enough far right Trombies show up to pick candidates so toxic that even the GOP population won’t be able to hold their noses to go into a ballot box in November. I don’t see how else it can go.
And to close, my friends, a little scenario give you a case of the warm-and-fuzzies. Let’s just say that Miles Taylor and his group are successful in bouncing some Trombie candidates from the ballot, especially in critical swing districts. If that happens, even if the GOP retakes the House in November, Ass kissing Toady Kreepy Kevin McCarthy will never get handed the Speakers gavel. And even if she personally loses, Liz Cheney will feel fully vindicated, and become a force in the newly rising moderate GOP.