Though it is not yet certain that Republicans will flip the House of Representatives, it is probable that the tepid “red ripple” will cost Nancy Pelosi her speakership.

Heavily gerrymandered districts in Florida, personally sharpied by the Mussolini wannabe Ron DeSantis, partially contributed to the weak wave but what really hurt was the defection of a district in blue trending Virginia and losses in Hudson Valley and Suburban New York:


“The national fight for control of the U.S. House of Representatives will be partly decided Tuesday on a battleground that seemed unlikely a year ago: New York City’s suburbs.

One of the nation’s bluest states, New York has become an unexpected opportunity for Republicans due to voter dissatisfaction and a more favorable political map.

Many of the most closely watched congressional contests remained too close to call early Wednesday morning, including the re-election race of U.S. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. The five-term Democrat, who was supposed to be leading his party’s attempt to hold on to Congress, is fighting for survival in a district in the Hudson Valley.

Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, faces Republican state Assemblyman Mike Lawler, who ran a spirited campaign focusing on the high cost of gasoline and other pocketbook issues.”

Mike Lawler is a conservative Republican, to be sure, who was not above exploiting inflation and other “pocketbook” issues which have perhaps hit the New York City suburbs and exurbs as hard as they have any other region of the nation.

He also swung hard on the crime issue, excoriating New York City’s experiment with cashless bail as his main punching bag.

But will Lawler, and the three or four other New York Republicans goofy-footing the red ripple into Congress, go along with the MAGA crazies led by Marjorie Taylor Greene as they try to lead the New House into their Magical Misery Tour of default on the National debt, impeachment and a National abortion ban?

That seems to me unlikely.

Lawler supports what passes in Republican circles as “sensible gun control”, states unequivocally the Joe Biden was elected President, will not support a National abortion ban (though he does hew to the tired Republican charge that Democrats advocate for “abortions up until birth” while undoubted knowing that such procedures are only performed when the fetus is unviable or already dead and the mother’s life is in danger).

So the question is – will these new representatives, at least those hailing from purple or light blue districts, cast their lot with the MTGs of the Republican caucus?

I think not, if they wish to hold on to their seats, they had best not show their asses to the voters back home.

Question two will be if Speaker McCarthy will have the power to protect those moderates in his care and to whom he owes his Speakership?

Likely not they are probably on their own.

There is still the slight possibility that late counts and results from California and Washington state can stave off the red ripple, so maybe McCarthy will be spared a test of his questionable ability to lead his caucus of cats.

We will see.

As we wait for results, enjoy this clip of Newt Gingrich lamenting the demise of his much wished for Red Wave:

And try not to hurt your face smirking…

Here’s some hopeful news:

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  1. I can’t believe my ears. Gingrich is saying that Biden “demonizing” Republicans is what happened? Oh, Gingrich is out of ideas entirely (not that that’s anything new) if he’s this lame. My Gawd.

  2. If the GOP does take the House, it will be by a razor-thin margin. Meaning:
    McCarthy as Speaker? Doubtful. MAGA members may try to oust him.
    Impeaching Biden and investigating the Jan. 6 Committee? Depends who ends up as Speaker, but GOP Rep’s from swing districts will be reluctant to go along.
    Knowing that Biden will veto any bills passed by the GOP, they may essentially sit back and do nothing for the next two years. They know that cutting Social Security and Medicare aren’t popular. So, while they’ll talk a good talk, their agenda will be stalled.
    Any intra-party conflict within the GOP can only help Democrats, if they take advantage of it.

    • Any bills coming out of the house if the ‘pubes are in charge won’t make it thru the senate unless it changes hands. I don’t think President Biden will be signing much of anything actually.

  3. I like Ted Lieu’s comment.Quoting Gavin Metzger.

    The path for Dems in the house:

    -win CO8 and WA8

    -win CA13, CA22, CA27

    -win one of OR5, WA3, AZ1, AZ6

    Don’t give up hope.

  4. Two of the 4 NY seats flipped by the GOP were here on the Isle of Long. Trump acolyte Lee Zeldin left CD 1 to run for governor, and focused his campaign on the crime issue, while incumbent Kathy Hochul’s primary ad focus seemed to be on abortion rights. Voters in NYC, Albany, Syracuse, Rochester and Buffalo weren’t buying into Zeldin’s pitch, and her margins there were high enough for her to carry the statewide race.

    While Zeldin’s CD 1 seat was a safe GOP pass-along, as was CD 2, which was held by Trump supporter Peter King until his retirement a few years ago, and likewise stayed in GOP hands, it looks like many Long Islanders in CD 3 and 4 bought into the “soft on crime” pitch, as did rural voters across the state, to the detriment of some good candidates.


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