Look, frankly I’m sick and tired of talking about how fucking stupid Vladimir Putin is, and that he has let his delusions dive him into a war he can’t win, and how he has nowhere to go from here but down. For a goddamn change, I want to talk about what happens next.
I’ll make this simple. Vladimir Putin has taken his country back to 1913. In his unquenchable thirst to rebuild the former glory of the former Soviet Union, he has turned Russia into a pariah state. And there is no turning back now, at least not for Putin, no matter what happens from here on out. Because Putin stepped over a line that the world can’t tolerate.
See, here’s the thing. If Putin had kept his invasion firmly grounded in military terms, and had followed Geneva Convention rules to target only legitimate military targets, with a little slick media he might have been able to get by. But the idiot expected immediate success within 10 days, and when his army became bogged down, he turned instead to extracting a revenge price against the civilian population. And crossed a bright red line.
Which allowed President Joe Biden to unite basically the entire globe. Not only has Biden got NATO and the EU walking tall and standing tall, but Putin’s barbarity has turned even non NATO countries like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and South Africa against Putin, all issuing sanctions of their own to parrot US-EU sanctions.
But it was Biden and his administration that literally gave Putin The kiss of death. The Biden administration took the extreme step of sanctioning Vladimir Putin personally over his role in the Ukraine invasion. This is almost unheard of. Look, the US sanctions people and governments and government run businesses all the time, but the US never sanctions foreign leaders directly. The reason being that the US always wants to leave the avenue open for direct negotiations with that foreign leader.
But the US sanctioned Putin directly. Which means that they now consider him to be a rogue leader. It is no longer bothering to talk to him simply because he is unstable, his word is no good. The direct sanctions against Putin makes it clear that the US no longer looks at him as being a stable negotiating partner on the world stage. And if the US won’t deal with him, why should anybody else in the world?
Let’s be bullshit clear here. As this grinds on, Putin and several of his generals are going to be indicted with war crimes against humanity. And once that happens, he becomes an international pariah, With the possible exception of Xi in China And Kim in North Korea, nobody will treat him as a legitimate world leader. And it won’t end quickly.
Even if Putin were to totally capitulate and withdraw from Ukraine tomorrow, it wouldn’t matter. The world no longer sees Putin as a legitimate global leader. The world is united. The sanctions against Russia would not end, no matter what the negotiations, until Putin is removed from power. They will leave the sanctions in place until Putin is removed. Because they can.
Sadly, what happens next is left up to Russian internal politics. Putin will prosecute the war for as long as he’s ion power. And even if oligarchs and advisors convince Putin to withdraw back within his own borders, nobody will even consider lifting sanctions against Russia until Putin is gone. Putin’s goose is already cooked.