The world sits on edge tonight. And the outcome all relies on the decision of one man, Vladimir Putin. And he is a man married to the past, who has badly miscalculated the world as it is today.
What is Putin’s top demand to end the crisis at the border to Ukraine right now? He wants legal, ironclad assurances that The Ukraine will never join NATO. There is a good reason for this. Look at a map from 20 years ago of Europe. There was in most cases at least a two country buffer between Russia and NATO countries. But look at the map today. Russia is almost completely surrounded by NATO countries. The last thing Putin can afford is to have the Ukraine join them.
But Putin is living in the past. In an interview in the early 2000’s, he said that the greatest tragedy in the world was the dissolution of the Soviet Union. That was Putin’s world, even though his superiors found him too unstable for advancement. But his dream is to restore the power and might of the Soviet empire, and reintegrating the Ukraine would be for first jewel of his crown.
Putin is an idiot. If he had pulled this shit 4 years ago, his useful idiot Trump would have handed him the keys to Kiev. he was trying to grind NATO into the dust. I don’t know whether Putin simply miscalculated, or whether he thought that he could help to propel Trump to a second term and take his time, but Putin let a golden opportunity slip through his fingers. Trump would have been happy to let Putin take the Baltic States too, pass on his Article 5 obligations, and leave NATO hanging out to dry.
*Full Disclosure*Â What follows is nothing more or less than my personal opinion based on current events, and my own experience. While I fully expect that Putin intends to invade the Ukraine, I don’t honestly believe he intends to totally overrun and annex the country. Putin isn’t that stupid. I believe he intends a flash invasion of Ukraine, drive in, and then negotiate to have the two breakaway Russian provinces autonomy, and a say in Ukrainian politics and the constitution. Then he’ll withdraw.
There are two reasons for this. First, Putin has, by government estimates almost 190,000 troops massed along the Ukrainian borders. This would certainly allow Putin to invade the Ukraine, even engage in bloody house-to-house combat in Kiev, but not enough to control the country. Military estimates are that in order to control the Ukraine, Putin would need a force of at least 500,000 men to provide logistical and tactical support. And Putin doesn’t have 500,000 men available.
Here’s the second reason. Putin has badly misread the Ukrainian people. Are portions of the Ukrainian government corrupt? Of course they are, but the Ukrainians have had a taste of democracy, and it turns out they like it! If they have to have a corrupt government, , at least they’d like to elect their corrupt officials to scream at for the next few years.
If you’ve been watching news coverage from the Ukraine recently, you’ll note a kind of almost collective calm. The Ukrainians have had Putin fucking with them since 2014 when he invaded and annexed Crimea. Since then, more than 14,000 Ukrainians have died. There are no runs on at the store. There is no shortage of toilet paper, canned goods, meat, or other items people hoard before trouble. There are no mile long lines at gas stations to get fuel to skedaddle. But you know who is having a severe shortage? Ukrainian gun shops. They are reporting shortages of both guns and ammunition. A recent poll showed that more than 60% of the Ukrainian population was ready to take up arms against the Russians. I saw a video today of a 17 year old Ukrainian who was taking classes in emergency field dressings and basic marksmanship.
If he goes in, Putin cannot win this war. He doesn’t have the strength to subjugate the population, and they are united against him. But I greatly fear that Putin will invade, simply because like Trump, his voracious ego demands it. And unlike Trump, Putin has no independent military to stand up to him. Pray for the Ukraine.
The last real major invasion was the US taking on Iraq 20 years ago. Invasions by highly advanced technologies are deterred by the vast casualties and destruction that can occur to both sides. Numbers of troops are basically meaningless in a modern weapons battle. The other question will be how much will Ukraine actually respond into Russia? or Bielorussia? What happens if rockets fall in Moscow? For the sake of humanity I really do hope putin backs down.
Putin’s tragic lack of intelligence shines through all of this. Cunning isn’t enough when the stakes get really high. Had he understood that Russia’s best bet was to make nice with the EU, establish proper trade treaties and benefit from the West’s vastly superior economy, he wouldn’t need to be making stupid military moves to bolster (a) his ego (b) his failed regime.
Ah but that’s the boring option. For someone of his mindset, it’s insufferable and slow and not nearly as fun as reliving his youth (never mind that China has gotten to be big by doing a variant of this strategy). Now they’re about to pay for being so shortsighted.
My mother has a novel theory on all this: Putin will keep his troops parked the border for the rest of the winter. Yeah, it’ll be miserable but do you see that many troops whining about it out loud? Then, when spring comes and the mud with it makes an invasion ill-advised, he’ll withdraw with some face-saving excuse.
I find this plausible. Even the limited invasion you pointed out, Murf, will be costly as hell. Yet if he withdraws NOW, he’ll lose enough face to be shown the way to the nearest funeral parlor courtesy of the oligarchs that back him. Plus, he’s STILL talking at this late date, long after the element of surprise or covert strategy could have caught anyone off-guard. We know all his available moves and are prepared for them. Does that sound like a guy who’s going to do a move like this with no gain? Being as dumb as Trump and actually BEING Trump are two different conditions.
Agree that I was surprised he didn’t pull this while his agent was our president. Putin is a murderous psychopath & the word ‘humanitarian’ means NOTHING to a guy that shot down a commercial airliner killing 298 people. There is one word that keeps him awake…Afghanistan. He knows how that invasion worked out.