How We Got Here and Where To Now?

*Here* is pretty much the middle of this crazy, gas-guzzling junker ride in the US House. It began Monday, October 2, with leadfoot Gaetz moving a motion to vacate the Speaker’s chair. On Tuesday, a motion to table (i.e. block) Gaetz’s motion failed so HazMatt’s motion was brought to the floor for a full House vote.

McCarthy lost, Gaetz won and McCarthy’s choice of pro tempore for the day, Patrick McHenry (NC-10) was left in charge to take out his road rage on Emeriti Nancy Pelosi by ordering her out of a hideaway office by the next day. It should be noted here that Pelosi was not in DC at the time but back home in California to attend the funeral of her long-time friend, Dianne Feinstein. The disrespectful discourtesy and uncivil haste of this callous order is all you need to know about McHenry.

HazMatt Gaetz was one of the chief hold-outs in McCarthy’s 15-ballot battle to secure the top job in January. He joked at the time that, by the 13th round, he was running out of deals to demand from McCarthy. One of those was a change in the rules so that only one member was required to bring a motion to vacate. McCarthy agreed.

It was the biggest stick McCarthy could give to Gaetz and on the day of the 15th and final ballot, it made both men happy. Such are the small joys of small men.

Though Gaetz is devious and nasty enough to want to go nuclear on McCarthy, he was content for the first few months to just use the stick as a means of coercion. Then June rolled around and Gaetz learned that the House Ethics Committee was resuming his multiple-offences case after deferring it in 2021.

Gaetz was probably not too concerned initially. After all, he’d thwarted an Ethics investigation in 2018 by refusing to turn up to answer their questions. He probably thought that would work again… until they started calling witnesses in July and August. That’s when he went to then-Speaker McCarthy to use his stick to demand Kev quash the investigation. From nbc.com, prior to the ousting:

Mr. McCarthy, Republican of California, has repeatedly suggested the Ethics Committee investigation prompted Mr. Gaetz to lash out at him, blaming him for the inquiry.

“The Ethics complaint against Matt happened in the last Congress,” Mr. McCarthy said on Fox News on Monday, adding: “It would be illegal for me to do anything in that committee.”

Even so, Mr. McCarthy said he knew of emails in which Mr. Gaetz stated that he believed Mr. McCarthy was behind the inquiry.

“Legally, I can’t do anything and I’m not going to do anything,” Mr. McCarthy said.

True, Kev couldn’t have shut it down even if he’d wanted to. The Speaker doesn’t have that power and that rule is in place precisely in order to prevent Speakers from exerting undue influence over Ethics Committee investigations.

While McCarthy is correct that Gaetz is retaliating against him, the timing of Gaetz’s move indicates there was at least one other factor at play. Surprisingly, it was Fox White House correspondent Jacqui Heinrich who supplied that factor in an X:

Two Xs in consecutive days tell us this isn’t guesswork or gossip; Heinrich knows what’s in the wind and that means Gaetz knows it too. From Disrupt, Distract, Demolish – The Self-Centered Conceit of HazMatt Gaetz:

This investigation has been in the works for more than four months if we take into account the time spent on it in 2021. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to expect it to be in the final report stage and, according to Fox…

One [non-Ethics Committee] member told Fox News the report is mostly written but does not know what it contains. Yet following threats to vacate McCarthy, the member said of Gaetz, “No one can stand him at this point. A smart guy without morals.”

The general belief among House Republicans is that the Ethics Committee’s report and recommendations are due later this week. If true, it would explain Gaetz’s motivation to cause as much disruption for his party as possible, especially if his aim is to deflect a recommendation for his expulsion.

Note that the 45-day continuing resolution doesn’t figure anywhere in Gaetz’s agenda. That was just a convenient excuse. The truth is Gaetz is all about Gaetz and only about Gaetz.

And that brings us to where we are now (see above).

On the day the vote to vacate took place, MacCathy’s choice of Speaker pro tempore, Patrick McHenry, was in the chair. When the vote confirmed McCarthy’s removal from the top job, McHenry became acting speaker, a role that went immediately to his head.

The temporary duties of the acting role are vague, to say the least. According to the chamber’s Rules and Procedures, the acting member “may exercise such authorities of the office of speaker as may be necessary and appropriate pending the election of a speaker.”

Even less certain is how limited the acting term is. According to Wikipedia,

Under the current Rules of the House, at the start of their term, the speaker is required to create a secret ordered list of members to temporarily serve as speaker of the House if the speakership became vacant^[21] and to provide the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives this list “as soon as practicable after” his or her election “and whenever appropriate thereafter.”^[20][22][22]

This “succession list” procedure was created in 2003,^[24] following the September 11, 2001 attacks, to promote continuity of government.^[23] Rule I, clause 8 of the House Rules states the member whose name appears first on the list “shall act as Speaker pro tempore until the election of a Speaker or a Speaker pro tempore.”^[24]

The intent of the rule was for the speaker pro tempore to serve for a short period until the House elected a new speaker, but the House rules set no specific limit on the length of time that a member may be speaker pro tempore.^[24]

Rep Kelly Armstrong (ND) told reporters that McHenry’s main task will be to “get us a new speaker”. Anything further, he said, would lead to McHenry’s removal from the role. Armstrong, however, didn’t expand on how such a removal could take place. It’s just more Republican balloon-speak – a lot of hot air floating free of solid ground.

Thus far, there are two self-declared candidates in the coming race for speaker. The current majority leader, Steve Scalise, is one of them and he’s been joined by Jimmy Gym Jordan, aka Beavis, who has also nominated himself.

Scalise operates under the radar so there’s little to say about him on short notice. In contrast, a quick look at Gymmy Jim’s career bio reveals that, in 16 years as a member, he’s never penned a word of legislation let alone passed anything. He’s currently presiding over Disaster Central, a select committee that aims to put a range of lipstick shades on as many pigs as they can wrangle. I wouldn’t rely on him to take the trash out on the right night but he’ll get the extreme maga-esque magadon vote and there’s a few of those so he’ll be feeling hopeful for a while.

Politizoom will be providing you with a tracking service as the election for speaker shuffles its way from one ballot to another. My prediction is that they’ll break McCarthy’s 15-ballot battle and tempers will flare up like spotfires on an almost-daily basis. As there’s no one on the right capable of managing these agents of chaos, it will be entertaining at least which is a good thing because it’s likely to go on for a while.

McCarthy will not be running again and that’s the first wise decision he’s made this year. I think he’ll follow in the footsteps of his predecessor, Eric Cantor, and resign before his current term is up. The constant embarrassment and misery of sitting in the chamber where he lost it all is going to get to Kevin and wear him down.

When reporters asked who he thought should be his replacement, McCarthy replied that he didn’t know who was running but hoped it would be someone who puts “the country first.” Now there’s a novel idea – but I don’t think there’s anyone in right-wing politics who knows what that means. They can say the words but it’s all shallow waters with them.

As for the business of the House, no one is really sure how it will be affected. Fifty-five individuals have been voted in as speaker but McCarthy is the only one to be voted out so there’s no precedent or prior experience to go by. Republicans will be winging it… so that, at least will carry on as before.

There’s a consensus among corporate media that spending bills will be affected. As Reuters reported:

Until a House speaker is installed, it is unlikely that further action will be taken on bills to fund the government, with lawmakers facing a Nov. 17 deadline to provide more money or face a partial government shutdown.

Republican lawmakers said they would need at least a week to choose a new speaker, which will eat into the time necessary to pass that needed legislation.

Republicans, because of their obvious divisions, especially among a small group of hard-line conservatives seeking very deep cuts in federal spending, could have a harder time [than Democrats] settling on a candidate.

Reuters also noted,

Under the U.S. Constitution, the House speaker does not have to be a member of Congress. That is the reason some Republicans have floated [Trump’s] name …for the job, even though he is running for president and has said he does not want the job.

Of course Prisoner P01135809 doesn’t want the speaker’s job. He’d be expected to turn up and actually do some work. The whole idea is anathema for a lazy sod like Trump.

But Gaetz will be happy as long as it keeps the Ethics Committee and their scary report away from the chamber floor. What he plans to do after the election of the new speaker will depend on who that person is and whether or not he can manipulate them.

In the meantime, stock up on the popcorn and enjoy the theatrics!