Let me start this with a simple legal explanation to set the table for dinner as it were. When a law enforcement agency, whether local, county, state, or federal appears in front of a judge to request a search warrant, they must prove two things to the judge’s satisfaction. The first is probable cause that a crime was committed, And second, that there is probable cause that there is evidence of the crime at the site they want to search. The FBI had a duly authorized search warrant for Trump’s personal residence.
Following? Whatever Traitor Tot wants to believe, the blinders are now off. If the FBI had a search warrant, then the convinced a federal judge that they had probable cause of a federal crime, and probable cause that evidence of the crime would be found at the location. There is no longer any question. Donald Trump is at the very least the subject of a federal criminal investigation.
Intentional or not, here’s why the Mar-A-Lago residence, they have forced Trump’s hand, and for all the wrong reasons for Trump. For at least the last month, His Lowness has been dropping 10 gallon hints that he’s going to run again in 2024. Most likely to pimp his fundraising. And the GOP is desperate to keep him from announcing his candidacy until after the November midterms, for obvious reasons. They’ve already pissed away their home field advantage, and making this election a referendum on Trump instead of Biden will kill them.
Earlier today, Trump’s favorite human enema, SC Senator Lindsey Graham said something akin to, I spoke to Trump today. Weeks ago, he was already committed to running, and after yesterday, he’s even more committed to running in 2024. CHA-CHING! JACKPOT! And the rumor running rampant in the GOP is that Trump will announce his candidacy in the next 10 days. CHA-CHING! Progressive Jackpot!
Trump is likely to push his candidacy forward for two reasons, he’s dirt stupid, and he has no knowledge of the operations of elections, nor the DOJ. Trump spent 4 years thumbing his nose at the law, knowing that the DOJ would not indict a sitting President. And he got away with it. But he’s making a basic error in the operation of the FBI and DOJ.
Trump also has a dim knowledge that the DOJ has a standing policy that they will not undertake indictments or charges If it could affect an upcoming election. That is music to Trump’s ear. Free Pass! But Diaper Donnie doesn’t understand the practical application of the rule.
The rule, as interpreted by the DOJ is that they will go radio silent on any indictments and charges within 60 days of a general election. And Donald Trump is not a candidate on any ballot in the 2022 midterms. Oooops!
And it gets even worse for Trumpleforeskin. Because the standard definition of a Presidential primary season is that it starts 30 days preceding the first primary election. Trump is planning on announcing his candidacy in August of 2022 in an effort to avail himself of the protection of a process that doesn’t even begin until December of 2023!
Look, slowly but surely things are turning around, and the Democrats have wind in their sails. They can run on the bipartisan Infrastructure Act, the bipartisan Chips Act, the bipartisan Burn Pit act, and the Green New Deal that passed the Senate along partisan lines.
The economic numbers are improving as well. Today, gas at the Smiths we use here in Vegas was at $4.78 a gallon. 5 weeks ago it was at $6.12. The inflation numbers are due out in the next 48 hours. If inflation ticks down from 9.1% to 8.9% or 8.8%, even though people can’t immediately feel the difference, the mentality will be that relief is on the way.
With all that being said, Biden’s popularity is still mired at about 38%. And at this point, the only prayer the GOP has is to make the midterms a referendum on Biden. And they can still do that. But if Trump jumps the shark, and declares for the presidency in 2024 in August or September, then the Democrats can, at least for their base, turn the 2022 midterms into a referendum on Trump! And the Democrats already have gay rights, abortion rights, and climate change motivating their base. Don’t touch that dial.
Well, TFG is not the sharpest tool in the shed. I want him to announce soon. He loses the RNC paying his legal bills and has no access to his slush fund PAC if he is a candidate. And since he’s not on the ballot this fall, DOJ can arrest him any time they want. It would be poetic justice, karma, whatever you want to call it, if DOJ waits until after his announcement to arrest him. He’ll have no money and may even need a public defender.
Well said, tuckedd! Can you tell me what TFG means? I see quite often on this site! Thank you!
The Former Guy
The former guy. Hopefully going down.
The former guy. Hopefully going down.
It stands for ‘the former guy’. Biden used the reference first, and millions who agree that using his name is a form of ‘respect’, that he doesn’t deserve, have gladly followed suit. Personally, I use tffg. I leave the second ‘f’ to your imagination!
This gets into grand-master level chess, as in being able to see all the possible moves and counter-moves far more places ahead than an average or even great player. I also want to note at the outset that it’s never a good idea to make important decisions when one doesn’t have control of one’s emotions. As well all know Trump often loses his shit and every week something new and potentially catastrophic for him seems to come up. Those tiny hands that have trouble lifting an itty-bitty bottle of water to his lips sure as hell can’t juggle!
Having said all that the issue of declaring his candidacy (when) means facing some hard choices. Maybe. Trump has been raking in money, much of which is at the RNC’s expense because he’s taken over control of their operation in that regard is a PAC which let’s face it is for anyone who has one a potential political slush fund. Back in his Comedy Central Days Stephen Colbert, with the assistance of a lifelong REPUBLICAN lawyer and political operative demonstrated how easily PACs can be abused and turned into an untraceable donation to the person in charge. There were two forms they filled out, on the air to demonstrate. Each was less than a page long and took only a minute to complete. The first established Colbert’s PAC, and later on the second dissolved it.
Colbert designated the money to go to a non-profit charity, but COULD have just as easily declined to designate where the money would go. If he’d wanted to he could have sent it to some offshore account shrouded in secrecy. Think about that. Every politician with a PAC or Super-PAC can if they want simply not say where all that money goes when they shut it down. The law doesn’t require it and as was noted by the lawyer hiding it would be child’s play. THAT is why Trump has been furiously raising money for his PAC. You know goddamned good and well he intends to KEEP it. It will vanish without a trace unless and until the feds have legal cause to track it down and if he’s got someone really good handling it even then it could be tough. The thing is, Trump NEEDS to have that money available “just in case.” He’s about to face a bunch of balloon payments in the next year that could cripple the Trump Org. so he’s COUNTING on that money.
However, declaring his candidacy will cause people who know how (and not just in this country) scrutinizing that PAC and his bank! So hiding it will be tougher than it would otherwise have been. Declaring his candidacy, and the consequence of his having to raise a whole NEW bunch of money because he can’t use a dime from his PAC will give regulators all the justification they need to set up some serious ass monitoring of that PAC. That’s a problem.
As for the RNC cutting off paying his legal bills I’ll believe that if they actually go through with it. I don’t think they have the guts, but even if they do I suspect his MAGA goobers will kick in a few million a month. Whether his lawyers will accept his promises of paying their bills instead of the guarantee they have from the RNC is something to ponder however. He might have to hire a new and less qualified legal team – made up of suckers. So there’s that. And deep inside Trump knows that, plus he’s a cheap bastard and will HATE the idea of having to use his own money to pay such large legal bills as the RNC has been covering. Every dollar donated to a legal fund where there will be scrutiny to ensure it’s being legally used will eat him up inside!.
Plus, he will have to raise a shitload MORE money to run his campaign. He got spoiled for years having taxpayers pay for all that travel, and of course stiffing venues as well as localities for security and cleanup costs – and they’d started to learn the lesson last time around. Most places will want the money upfront, and again as a declared candidate he will have to raise all that money fresh and new, which again will just kill him inside! So there’s that.
I could keep going but I’ll add one last point which you’ve raised, and it’s that the Presidential primaries are a LONG ways off. There will be more than a year before the DOJ would have to go dark to maintain their longstanding policy. And of course neither Georgia or New York has to abide by that policy. With Georgia in particular a criminal case could be brought well before that was even an issue. Probably NY too, and lest we forget they have a state version of RICO that’s almost as robust as the federal one. Once charges are filed and the proverbial train is on the tracks there’s not a damned thing Trump can do, primary season or not. If I’m not mistaken the same would be true in federal courts.
The mindfuck to which you refer is I think quite real because Trump has until yesterday assumed Garland was browbeaten and didn’t have the guts to authorize moving against him. Now he knows differently. He’s facing huge legal bills as well as both civil and criminal exposure at the state level and now is a criminal suspect, if not already a formal target at the federal level. His lawyers, Jarvanka (and their lawyers who really are halfway decent) and sane advisors have surely been telling him that declaring his candidacy won’t stop state and federal investigations. And he has blown them all off.
Now? He’s been filling his Depends with lots of brown organic matter at the realization that the FBI/DOJ are dead serious and not the least bit intimidated. And that the Murdochs (both father and son) are distancing themselves and Fox from him. That they might even cut him loose and if they do that means no more nightly fluffing from Carlson, Hannity and Ingraham and without that his fundraising will nosedive!
So he’s got huge decisions to make both right now and down the road and he’s in no emotional condition to make them. Even at his best (long ago) this kind of decision making was beyond his capacity. To paraphrase the line from the movie Argo he’s got to pick the best bad option.
I’m not sure “mind fuck” is the proper term to use when speaking of TFG. You must have a mind before it can get fucked.