Each Day In Court Is A Day NOT Campaigning. Ripple Effects

Last week was a bad week for Trump. Not that he’d ever admit it, probably not even to his closest advisors. But deep inside he knows it. He knows it. Trump also knows as bad as last week was, it’s only going to get worse. At best he’s looking at four or five weeks more like the last one. He also knows this week and the ones to come will actually be worse. Today alone he might get his “family jewels” smacked not just in criminal court, when a witness is finally called to the stand and guts him. That will be bad enough. However across town in Manhattan in civil court as his $175 million bond might get revoked. Down in Florida witness statements will be presented that even his pet judge can’t stop from being filed. An already exhausted Trump who kept falling asleep last week probably didn’t sleep at all last night.

However let’s concentrate on the criminal trial. What it’s already shown, and what it portends for Trump. His onetime “fixer” lawyer turned nemesis Michael Cohen has penned an OpEd for MSNBC. Much of the ground covered you’re already familiar with, but it’s a nice, short “executive summary” of the trouble Trump is in. After reading it I thought to myself about just how far and wide the ripple effects of Trump’s first criminal case actually are. Again, you’re familiar with all this but seeing it all in one short piece, and by Cohen no less focuses things. Cohen’s headline refers to “seismic” political fallout which is an apt metaphor.

For the first time in our history a former President is a criminal defendant sitting in court facing a felony conviction. That’s a political and cultural earthquake to be sure. A major one. The thing about big earthquakes though is there are always aftershocks, which themselves can sometimes be significant in size. Even the small aftershocks add to the already existing damage. And how many there will be, their severity and even just where they will have the most effect in the earthquake zone can’t be predicted with much, if any accuracy. But everyone knows they’re coming.

One of them showed up last week in fact. As Trump sat there in court, alternately trying to intimidate jurors and falling asleep (complete with audible snoring and farting) President Joe Biden made three big campaign stops in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania. It happens to have the most electoral votes of any of the swing states. Biden was full of energy and so were the crowds. And Trump was stuck in court, limited to a handful of angry one or two minute outbursts for the cameras outside the courtroom as he was entering or leaving. Cohen wastes no words drawing the sharp contrast we saw:

This week, Joe Biden was in Pennsylvania campaigning for re-election. He called for new tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum from China before a union crowd in Pittsburgh. And in his hometown of Scranton, he attacked Trump for supporting tax policies that favor the wealthy. Meanwhile, Trump was stuck in a Manhattan courtroom, as jurors were selected for his trial.

I mentioned ripple effects and here’s one to think about. Trump is clearly already both emotionally and physically exhausted. Think about it. Was he out at some NYC hotel ballroom delivering a speech that could go out to other cities and towns? Or even attending small gatherings of mega rich people to hit them up for big PAC donations? No. He wasn’t even doing anywhere near the amount of rage tweeting, or rather “truthing” I’d expected. The stock “send me money” emails kept going out to his small dollar MAGA donors to be sure. But that’s a sort of perpetual motion machine. And just as Trump wants, craves and needs energy from the crowds at his rallies you know what? The MAGAs need their own “fix” back from Trump. They need to see and hear him, to get some of that good old-time religion vitriolic hate and victimization mainlined into their system from HIM!

Without their daily, or at least weekly diet of rotten, toxic red meat they might look at all the MAGA hats and other Trump stuff they’ve bought, and/or at their bank balance and THEN their daily and weekly expenses and rationalize “not this time” when they read the fundraising emails. Oh, they will bitch and complain about gas and grocery prices just like all of us who aren’t well of financially do. And though unlike us who know Food Corp is putting the screws to everyone they will believe Trump’s claims it’s all Biden’s fault and HE alone can make prices go back to what they were decades ago it won’t matter. More and more they will decide to “delay” giving money to Trump and take care of their onw immediate needs.

And let’s not forget how a startling number of them bought hundreds, thousands of dollars sometimes of Truth Social stock. Some have spent tens of thousands up to their entire life savings on it. And the prices have plummeted.  They literally don’t have any extra money to donate to Trump’s legal fund (or campaign fund either) any more.  Think about it TS price keeps going down which over the course of the next month it likely will. And then Trump gets convicted. For all the rationalization about some “unfair, Trump hating New York jury” it’s possible more MAGAs than we think will pull back. Oh, they will still support Trump. But talk is cheap. He doesn’t need them to voice support, he needs them to kick in money!

Even in the first week of his trial, during which Wednesdays are “off” days Trump didn’t head out somewhere to campaign. He had one, just one rally scheduled for this weekend and at the last minute cancelled THAT. Supposedly because the weather in Wilmington was sooooooo bad his pilot couldn’t land his plane. Sure. I think the more likely explanation is that Trump realized he just didn’t have the energy to get up on the stage and put on his show. In a given weekend Trump should be able to make three or four campaign stops and cover multiple states. What if he can’t. What if this trial, as it seems to have done last week just drains him too much both emotionally and physically?

Trump appearances, those rallies are the fuel for the MAGA machine. There are we are told about 30 million MAGAs out there. Fire breathers who will crawl through flames and over broken glass to vote for him. Yet only about a tenth of them subscribe to his Truth Social platform which is what, a couple of years old now?  Again, Cohen nails it:

Every day spent in court is a day that Trump can’t be out on the hustings talking to supporters or raising money for a fall campaign in which he already trails Biden badly in fundraising. Candidate appearances usually give a modest boost to a presidential campaign. Losing that opportunity for more than a month cannot be a positive development.

Cohen is quite correct in his OpEd when he points out how serious this is for Trump. Cohen correctly notes Trump’s likely to spend most of May in court. He goes on to emphasize that the whole time Biden’s going to be out on the campaign trail, meeting with and talking to voters about why he deserves another term in office. While Cohen is polite describing Trump being in court trying to convince the jury to let him off the hook (no mentions of Trump antics, or ripping off audible, nasty smelling farts) the fact is that for the next month (at least) America is going to see a stark contrast between the two major Party candidates.

And, while Cohen doesn’t specifically address it OTHER candidates of the two major Parties will have their own fates tied to the person at the top of each ticket. Biden can capitalize on the abortion issue everywhere and so can other Democrats. Trump, and other Republicans are already being dragged down by it, even in many RED states. Biden will be out there touting new infrastructure projects as well as factory openings and the jobs, good paying ones that go with them. All due to legislation he got passed in his first couple of years. At the same time he can credit fellow Democrats in this or that place, and chide GOPers who voted against it and now the benefits are kicking in trying to take credit.

And of course the fundraising. Biden and Democrats are in a much better position and can expand it. That means buying up ad time/space now at cheaper rates. And being on the air even now in many places while Trump/the GOP literally can’t afford to.  All because Trump is stuck in a courtroom for at least a month.

Ripple effects. They just might build into a mighty, big blue wave that will knock down the wall of Trump/MAGA.

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