David Frum – “Ukraine won. Trump lost.”

Over at The Atlantic.com never-Trumper David Frum is celebrating perhaps the first major defeat that Republicans in Congress have handed to their dear leader, when 101 House Republicans today joined with every Democratic Rep. to pass the $60B Ukraine package, which will be swiftly approved by the Democratic Senate and sped along to President Biden’s desk to be signed.

And, make no mistake, this is a significant setback for the Mango Mussolini, who will now have to explain to his patron in Moscow why the flow of American weapons will be turned back on… hopefully just in time to meet Putin’s planned Spring Offensive.

Trump has, and will continue to play this development off as a change of mind on his part, but Frum asserts, and I agree, that Republicans hearing from their voters back home have forced this “change” upon him, and despite the wails and moans of Trump stalwarts like MTG, Lauren Boebert, and Matt Gaetz, just might signal a breaking of the Trump fever that has seen their party suffer defeat after defeat since 2028.

And could lead to Trump’s losing in November.

“Ukraine won. Trump lost.

The House vote to aid Ukraine renews hope that Ukraine can still win its war. It also showed how and why Donald Trump should lose the 2024 election.

For nine years, Trump has dominated the Republican Party. Senators might have loathed him, governors might have despised him, donors might have ridiculed him, college-educated Republican voters might have turned against him—but LOL, nothing mattered. Enough of the Republican base supported him. Everybody else either fell in line, retired from politics, or quit the party.”

As Frum says Republicans- fearful of their own base – protected Trump from Impeachment, backed his big lie about winning the 2020 election, even while it was hurting the party with independent voters, and again when he sought to abandon our allies in Europe and, perhaps, most damaging, took full advantage of the Dobbs that Trumps SCOTUS picks handed down to further restrict reproductive rights in most red states.

But Trump’s strangled hold on the House Republican majority elected in 2022 now appears to be weakening.

“At the beginning of this year, Trump was able even to blow up the toughest immigration bill seen in decades—simply to deny President Joe Biden a bipartisan win. Individual Senate Republicans might grumble, but with Trump opposed, the border-security deal disintegrated.

Three months later, Trump’s party in Congress has rebelled against him—and not on a personal payoff to some oddball Trump loyalist, but on one of Trump’s most cherished issues, his siding with Russia against Ukraine.

The anti-Trump, pro-Ukraine rebellion started in the Senate. Twenty-two Republicans joined Democrats to approve aid to Ukraine in February. Dissident House Republicans then threatened to force a vote if the Republican speaker would not schedule one. Speaker Mike Johnson declared himself in favor of Ukraine aid. This weekend, House Republicans split between pro-Ukraine and anti-Ukraine factions. On Friday, the House voted 316–94 in favor of the rule on the aid vote. On Saturday, the aid to Ukraine measure passed the House by 311-112. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said the Senate will adopt the House-approved aid measures unamended and speed them to President Biden for signature.

As defeat loomed for his anti-Ukraine allies, Trump shifted his message a little. On April 18, he posted on Truth Social claiming that he, too, favored helping Ukraine. “As everyone agrees, Ukrainian Survival and Strength should be much more important to Europe than to us, but it is also important to us!” But that was after-the-fact face-saving, jumping to the winning side after his side was about to lose.“

It will be fascinating to see where we go from here.

Will Republicans from the deepest of red districts try to oust Speaker Mike Johnson and force Trump to abandon perhaps his most devoted (if perhaps compromised if some rumors are true) who has signed off on every item of Trump’s plan to set up a forever regime if he wins later this year?

And, if so, will Democrats really ride to Johnson’s rescue once the ink is dry on the Ukraine bill, or allow the Republicans to replace him with a hot head who might very well damage the party even further?

2024 just got a lot more interesting.