A New Poll Shows Trump Is Weaker Than Expected. Are GOP Big Donors Causing It?

Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line

You all know my feelings about that old bromide. I’ve ranted about it for years, and after the almost miraculous Democratic conversion to discipline in 2018, 2020 and 2022, I put a rose on the lid, fired up the backhoe, and buried that puppy once and for all. But now it’s time for a new one;

Democrats fall in line, Republicans fall apart 

Look at the recent past. In 2018 the Democrats coalesced around anybody who would beat Trump. In 2020, once Biden swept through South Carolina, everybody else dropped out and supported Biden to victory. And in 2022 Democrats showed up in midterm record numbers to fight the GOP to a stalemate/

The GOP? Notso-hotso. In 2018 GOP white suburban women voted for Democrats for the House, helping fuel a 40 seat flip. In 2020 those same GOP white women voted GOP downhill, but either voted Biden or left the top of the ticket blank. And in 2022 they underperformed, allowing the Democrats to rescue what should have been a 30-40 GOP seat flip.

Here’s why this is important. A brand new Quinnipiac poll came out today showing that Trump is weaker than the GOP hoped, and that the wrong party may be worrying about the emergence of a 3rd party candidate.

According to the poll, in a head-to-dead matchup Trump trails Biden 47-46. This alone is positive news for Democrats considering Biden’s stubbornly flagging poll numbers. But when Quinnipiac throws a 3rd candidate into the mix, the wheels fall off. Those results show Biden at 39%, Trump has 35%, and RFK Jr logs in at 22%. 

Take a minute to digest those numbers. In a head-to-head race, Biden leads 47-46. But if you throw Kennedy into the mix, Biden drops 8 points to 39%. But Trump drops11points to

35%. Weak kneed Democrats have been ordering fainting couches by the boxcar load to collapse on at the very thought of a 3rd party or independent candidate sinking Biden’s boat. But the poll shows that Kennedy is stealing more votes from Trump than he is from Biden! No opinion there, just read the numbers.

First of all, I’m not worried about the Biden drain. We’re still a full year away from the general election. This is pissy Democrats with issues about Biden’s age, or not being progressive enough, venting their spleens. But the new discipline of 2018, 2020 and 2022 shows that Biden. Is. The. Man., and the Democrats will line up behind him again in 2024, especially considering the good faith efforts Democratic leadership has made in the transition to the younger generation.

But it’s not the same for the GOP. The Never Trump faction has only grown over the last six years. And while the protest vote Democrats will likely be back in November. But on the GOP side? Not only is a 3rd party candidate giving disgruntled Trump voters who have finally had enough somewhere to fo, it also gives disgruntled former Trump voters who sat out 2020, but are considering giving him one more try somewhere else to go instead.

But here’s the McGuffin. I have already written about how the GOP and the RNC are in the financial hurt locker. Traitor Tot has a lock on the small donor teat, and the big money donors are sitting on their wallets as long as Trump is on the ballot. Instead they are planning on making surgical donations to specific GOP candidates to keep their money from getting into Trump’s hands.

But they’re being more activist than that. I have also written about the astroturf No Labels group trying to put together a convincing 3rd party candidate operation for 2024. And I’ve also written that while the group has amassed an impressive $70 million war chest, the bulk of it has come from dark money GOP groups and donors. The obvious inference being that the GOP is funding this futile 3rd party effort in order to try to draw Democratic votes away from Biden to put Trump back in the White House.

Question. What if the GOP deep pocket, high roller donors are actually pulling a double switch? After all, those same deep pockets donors are already strangling the GOP, the RNC, and El Pendejo Presidente. If they’re that opposed to The Cheeto Prophet, why would the funnel $50 million+ in dark money through backdoor channels to try to help him get reelected? 

Look, these guys didn’t get to be billionaire donors by being dummies. They can read a spreadsheet like you and I read the box scores in the sports pages every morning. And they’ve been around politics long enough to know a broken down suitcase when they see one.

These guys donated to GOP candidates in 2018, 2020, and 2022, and got their asses royally kicked. They’ve seen for themselves the newfound discipline of the Democrats and they envy it. They’ve also seen the total self destruction of the GOP, especially in the House. What better way to get this Trump monkey off their backs than to covertly fund a 3rd party campaign to siphon votes from Trump instead of Biden, and hopefully take his MAGAt’s with him?

You may think I’m full of sh*t, but I’ve been following this filthy game for some 50 years now. And I’m here to tell you that this is exactly the kind of plot that generals hatch up when they want to engineer a bloodless coup. Keep the peasants on your side by turning them against the dictator instead. To me it sings like a birdie.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.