It’s only a theory until it actually happens
The warning was sounded last night in Virginia, but was it heard? Trump’s shock-and-awe election in 2016 sparked a massive GOP backlash in the suburbs, especially white GOP women in 2018. But the funny thing is that the Democratic House candidates in 2018 didn’t try to tie every incumbent to Trump, instead they grassroots fund raised their asses off, and ran their races on local issues. And won 40 seats in the House.
The Virginia Democrats ran what they thought was a 2018 style Trump backlash election against Trump, by spending all of their time trying to make Youngkin into a Trump Mini-Me. But they didn’t learn the lesson of the 2020 campaign. In 2020, GOP suburban voters absolutely roasted Trump at the top of the ticket, but the GOP almost retook the House down ballot! Given the chance, the voters took out their anger on Trump, but didn’t desert the party.
Now it’s 2021. And everybody, from Democrats to Republicans to independents, are sick to fucking death of Trump! And Youngkin pulled off the enviable trick of being able to get Trump’s support for his base, and yet hold him at arms length with the rest of the voting public. His secret was using dog whistles instead of air raid sirens. And GOP voters were highly motivated to vote against the Biden agenda, as long as it didn’t include Trump. The GOP thinks that Youngkin just gave them the roadmap for electoral success in 2022, use dog whistles to ignite the base on racist social issues, such as Critical Racial Theory, and leave Trump out of the mix as much as possible. But they’re wrong.
Here’s why. From the start, Youngkin enjoyed an advantage that almost no other GOP candidate in 2022 will enjoy. Virginia state GOP rules allow for either a primary election or a state convention. In 2021, the Virginia GOP chose a state convention, allowing Youngkin to set his messaging and agenda from the start without having to fight off a challenge from a far right Trombie. This was invaluable going into the general election.
Nobody else in the GOP, especially in vulnerable Senate races, is going to enjoy that edge. Trump is going to want to reassert his dominance over the party, and candidates are going to have to swing hard right against Trombie challengers, and then try to swing back to the middle. Which will give the Democratic challengers and incumbents fertile ground to show their opponents as far right extremists, as well as tying them to constant obstinance in the face of everything the Democrats accomplished.
But the message is clear. The New Jersey race should have been a walkover for Murphy, and instead he had to go to the mattresses. Forget the Trombies, both New Jersey and Virginia election results show that moderate GOP voters have already put Trump in the rear view mirror. Trying to tie local candidates to Trump is a losing proposition. Maybe the moderate GOP is a little stronger than we thought, and Trump doesn’t exist for them until 2024.
The takeaway? Fuck Trump! Run the 2018 congressional 2018 playbook. Campaign like hell on local issues, and tar the GOP as obstructionist. Oh, yeah. And it wouldn’t hurt to actually get shit done! Sweet
Jesus! I do this shit for what passes for as a living, and I am sick to death of seeing Democratic House members and Senators running in front of cameras, touting how close they are, and blaming everybody else for the logjam. If you spent as much time talking to each other as you do talking to the cameras, this would be in the can by now! Put your big boy and girl pants on, pass the bills, and you’ll have accomplishments to run on the the GOP can’t touch, and that you can show they obstructed! What a way to run a railroad.
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Damn Joe. Ur asking them to be grownups? Ur such an optimist.
The way past the drama of the logjam on BBB is to start directly blaming Sinema and Manchin. Accountability only happens when people are called to the carpet. Tell the media to stop lying when they say “Democrats aren’t getting things done.” Make sure people understand that it’s the Republicans and Sinechin who hate Americans.
Unfortunately, the Dems can’t move any legislation forward in congress, because they have senile Uncle Joe as the head of the party. Instead of kissing Manchin and Sinema’s asses, he should be kicking them.
I knew he would be a weak-sauce president which is why I couldn’t bring myself to vote for his demented ass in 2020. Look for Trump to pound him into the dirt in ’24 and he won’t even be able to run on getting anything accomplished.
Truly sad when you have the Republicans on one side who don’t want to govern and the Democrats on the other who are unable to govern.
Even when we do manage to slip in progressives, they cave at the first challenge as they are signaling on the Build Back Better (but not on anything you’ll get unless you’re a billionaire or multi-national corporation) shit-show.
If you didn’t vote for Biden, THEN U ESSENTIALLY VOTED FOR TRUMP. U remind me of my dumbass neighbor who thought he was the shit because he voted for Jill stein. I pointed out if he didn’t vote for Hillary he voted for Trump. Sure u aren’t a troll so u feel free to bitch? Or just another youngster spending too much time on Facebook? Dunno. But if u blame Biden for the stonewalling of the Republicans or the fact big coal & big pharma own the two senators holding up biden’s agenda, then u aren’t as smart as you think you are. If Biden wasn’t president then the spoiled criminal dictator would end ur angst. THERE WOULD BE NO MORE VOTING THAT MATTERED. Then u could go back to ur video games cuz fascism allows no dissent, smart, stupid, or in between.