Another Tuesday, another primary night. And as the results come in, there is something that is already beginning to become clear, even though the majority of the primaries are yet to come.
Everyone has been casting this midterm as a battle of the soul of America, a battle between a party with ideas, plans, and an agenda to move the country forward, vs a party devoted to authoritarian rule. And on the local and national stage, candidates will fight those positions tooth and nail. But that won’t decide the 2022 elections.
The actual outcome of the 2022 elections will be decided on a different, almost hidden battlefield. Because 2022 is a midterm election. And historically, midterm elections tend to come down to one thing, and one thing only. Base voter turnout. And never has there been a midterm election when the methods that the two parties are using to turn out their base are more different. And that can make a critical difference.
The difference is now purely philosophical. In the good old days, both sides, Democratic and Republican had platforms, they had ideas and agendas, and they debated those openly to the public in an effort to gain votes and win. But that was then, and this is now. The GOP no longer has an agenda, plans, ideas, or a platform. What they have is ideology, and it requires complete compliance.
Welcome to the Trump MAGA party. Sure, Trump had massive attendance at his rallies, but he built that almost purely through social media. He got his message out daily, pounding the same sick screed over and over again, and then rallied his base. And you can see that already showing up in the GOP primaries.
You know what you’re not seeing in the GOP primaries so far, especially among Trump backed candidates, but from most GOP candidates in general? Frequent public rallies in different parts of the district or state. Instead they are depending largely on social media, partially to campaign on, but mostly to raise money for more advertising and social media contact. The reason for this is simple. Your average GOP candidate has a personality so toxic that the Armenians wouldn’t take free missiles from them. They are basically a cash and carry operation.
The Democrats are the polar opposite. They do rallies, they hold meet-n-greets, they go into stores and introduce themselves to the actual voters. It worked well in 2018. Democrats used grassroots enthusiasm to get the word out, and also to get out the vote. As a result, Democratic House challengers were able to use grassroots enthusiasm out out fundraise entrenched GOP incumbents bu 3-4 to 1. And we flipped more than 40 House seats.
That is going to be the secret battlefield for the 2022 midterms. GOP candidates are toxic anywhere but in front of their most loyal base, so they’ll use social media, where they can massage and revine the message, and fundraise for more media advertising. Democrats will use issues like abortion and voting rights to get out and actually talk to the voters. Which will work? My personal guess? People like to vote for people they’ve actually seen and talked to. Don’t touch that dial.
This is what amazes me the most. What can Rep. voters be thinking when they look for a platform that the people they vote for are running on. Not finding such a platform, at all, why then do they insist on throwing their vote that way. They expect little and get even less. It truly is mind boggling that they are so easily led.