Let’s start with a little levity for a change. This is an old cartoon by Dave Berg of MAD Magazine I’ve never forgotten. A couple is out in their car. The woman looks out the side window and says “Crap, there’s a dog chasing us again.” The man looks out and says, “Let’s pull over and see what he does when he catches us.” He pulls over, and they look out. The woman frowns at the man and says, “Well, now you know,” and the guys says, “Yeah, let’s find a car wash.”

It’s funny all by itself, but I brought it up for a reason. When I think of this kerfuffle caused by the Alito leak, it reminds me of that cartoon. For the last 50 years, the GOP has been driving a Roe v Wade sedan all around, with a mongrel mutt called Evangelicals running behind it barking furiously. But Trump was finally stupid enough to stop the car, and Evangelicals shit and pissed all over it.

Here’s the McGuffin. Once the dog catches the car and does his damage, it’s mission accomplished. He trots off home for a snack and nap, while the GOP tries to clean up the mess. That may be what we’re about to see here.

And if we do, it may well be bad news for the GOP, especially in the Senate. I have touched on this in passing before as a possible consequence of overturning Roe, but we have the first hint that it might actually happen. On his show tonight, Ayman Muhyiddin shared a new poll that was just released. According to the poll, the overturning of Roe would make 45% of Democrats more energized to show up to vote in November, but only 25% of Republicans will be more energized to come out and vote. I have always thought that this might happen, and I think it’s why the GOP is running from the issue like a scalded cat.

For a half a century the GOP has been laughing its ass off, leading Evangelicals around by the nose, using Roe as a leash. They used it to fund raise, and they used it to drive Evangelicals to the polls. But like throwing out the ACA, the GOP knew it would never happen, so there was no downside for them.

But here’s the problem. The Evangelicals have spent a half a century on a monolithic quest, to overturn Roe. Polling shows that the Evangelical base is shrinking, it isn’t attracting young churchgoers. SO most of the GOP’s Evangelical base is the monolithic group who wanted to overturn Roe. Personally, I don’t think that most Evangelicals gave a shit one way or another about GOP policies or platforms, the GOP was the means to an end, overturning Roe.

But now apparently it’s Mission Accomplished for Evangelicals, they have their lifelong wish. They’re largely done with politics, and with the GOP. How does the GOP recapture and motivate them to show up anymore? LGBTQ rights and same sex marriage? true, some Evangelicals hate the alternative lifestyle, but polls show a growing group of Evangelicals going with the All God’s children philosophy regarding gays and trans people. Can the GOP find a slogan or angle catchy enough to re-engage and motivate them? I guess we’ll find out, because right now the GOP has nothing else to sell them.

We’ll have to watch future polling to see how or if it shifts. But if the Evangelicals are through, it could be bad news for the GOP, not only in the Senate, but in the House as well, especially in the South and the bible belt. If the Evangelicals sit out, some of those House districts aren’t going to as safe as the GOP thought they’d be when they drew them. Don’t touch that dial.

 

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9 COMMENTS

  1. Don’t forget this-there are more evang bugaboos. LGBT issues, particularly same sex marriage, birth control, etc. that stuff is still out there to energize them. Will it have the same umph Roe did? We might start to see something in 2022. Not to nag or anything but if young people, particularly young women, don’t get out and vote, the ‘pubes really don’t have anything to worry about.

    • Agreed Spike, agreed…But ook at it this way, if you just spent 5 years monolithically saving up to buy a car, and you finally get it, are you going to want to turn around the next day and start saving for a jet ski, or a house? After 50 years, I think they want to sit back and enjoy it. Shit, I STILL get a warm spot just thinking about the Cubs winning the series, and that was like 6 years ago!!! lol

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  2. Doing away with most effective forms of birth control because the wingnuts consider them abortifacients (they work by preventing a fertilized egg/zygote in the uterine wall a form of abortion. It will still be an animating issue for them but I think you are correct that it won’t be to the same degree as actual abortions performed in a clinic or hospital have been. And I keep saying it but a helluva lot of guys including and especially MAGA goobers will HATE the idea of having to use condoms. Hell, a lot of those gals will too. Worse, even when used correctly (and as we know in the heat of passion sometimes taking some extra time to make sure you do it exactly right) they are only about ninety percent effective.

    Let’s leave that aside though. Before coming here I was scrolling through the headline stories in my browser and read one about a RELGIOUS objection to overturning Roe. I did know that for Jewish people their faith has no prohibitions on abortion and over eighty percent of Jewish people in this country support abortion rights. I knew that part.

    What I didn’t know however is the Judaism REQUIRES abortion if the life/health of the mother is in danger. Got that? If you’re Jewish and practice some form of your faith if the woman’s life is in danger abortion is REQUIRED. That means banning abortion, or for that matter restricting it violates the tenants of one of the major religious faiths in this country. It violates Jewish freedom of religion!

    I’m looking at the Constitution and the good ole first amendment with the part that established freedom of religion and NOWHERE does it say or imply that the Christian faith’s beliefs (and even there there’s a problem for the religious wackos) take precedence over any other religion, or that where faiths differ on a matter Christianity gets to decide the rules for everyone!

    Surely Justices Breyer and Kagan who are Jewish pointed this out in conference. I wonder how that went over with the gang of five Alito has siding with him. Was one of them stupid enough to give voice to some idiotic opinion along the lines of “well, most of the country is Christian” – as in allowing actual non-legal and more importantly non CONSTITUTIONAL considerations to enter into the equa5ion? You know, the very thing Alito says shouldn’t have anything to do with considering the Constitutional merits of this or any other case?

    The dissents, at least from Kagan (Sotomayor too on different grounds) should be blistering and I’d imagine a religious freedom case is already prepped to enter the system – one that would overturn the overturing of Roe by hoisting those fucking RWNJ Christian-in-name-only ASSHOLES on their own religious petard.

    This is going to be ugly to be sure. But if as McConnell fears (and I still say he was visibly shaken and fearful at that presser the day after the leak) it costs the GOP this fall, and the combination of expanded majorities in the House and Senate allow for passage of a federal law allowing abortion along the lines of Roe (and with less ability for states to fuck with it as provided for with Casey) AND a religious freedom case making it’s way through the federal courts maybe, just maybe a District judge can enjoin states from enforcing the draconian new laws that are about to go into effect. Of course, a conservative Circuit will come to a different conclusion and then SCOTUS will be faced with the doctrine of resolving competing precedents from different Circuits. They aren’t required to resolve such things when they happen but their doctrine is that they should.

    IF the GOP loses big this fall and in an election where historically they should be in the driver’s seat to, with Democrats’ slim majorities retake both the Senate and House you can bet a LOT of very private lunch and dinner conversations are going to be had with the Fascist Federalist Society Fucks on the Court to back off. To rehear the matter and dial back what they have done. Because Roberts had them on a steady, and pretty much inexorable course to choke off abortion access to most women but nooooooooo. The other five had to grab for their fucking brass ring and go for broke!

    As you like to say, don’t touch that dial.

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    • When you call it effective form of birth control you lost me. Only irresponsible people think of it that way. Many women never get over the trauma of their last resort decision. It should never be considered birth control. Shame on you. Surely you have more to you than to make such such a thoughtless statement. It’s a live human baby for crying out loud.

      • When I wrote my comment I assumed anyone reading it would understand the “abortifacient” issue referred to common, proven as highly effective methods such as IUDs, and hormonal treatments such as birth control pills or even so-called morning after pills. I guess I should have been extra specific. Then again you might be one of those who believe the moment a sperm enters an egg that a human life exists, and therefore preventing it from implanting in a uterus to create an actual pregnancy is infanticide. If that’s your position you should be really pissed at God. Conservative estimates are that 25-30% of fertilized eggs pass never implant to create a pregnancy. A substantial number of estimates put it higher than that, but even on the low side when you consider seven billion plus people in the world and all the sex that takes place when you consider an omnipotent God who works in mysterious ways that’s a helluva lot more “abortions” than humans have carried out! For those who begins at conception that means God is by far the biggest abortionist of all!

        The fact is, biologically speaking reproduction is somewhat inefficient regardless of the species of plant or animal, including the human animal.

        You mention some women experience a level of trauma that affects them for years if not the rest of their lives if they have an abortion. What you don’t speak to even though it’s true is that many women who give their newborn child up for adoption experience trauma too, and some are haunted by that decision for the rest of their lives. And as long as I’m on the subject those TV shows that show joyful reunions of adopted children and birth mothers/parent reuniting seldom if ever reference the flip side, much less dive into all the instances when uncovering a birth parent turns into a disaster for the adoptee, or one or both of the birth parents! Not to mention adoptive parents who wind up being put in second place or virtually abandoned by that adopted child they provided a loving home for.

        As it happens I believe consenting adults should have the chance to take steps to prevent unwanted pregnancies BEFORE having sex. That a “well, if a pregnancy results from a tryst or one-night stand then just get an abortion isn’t at all responsible. People should do all they can including putting off sex until the issue of birth control is taken care of. But stuff happens. Even for those who for religious/moral reasons rely on condoms and in rare cases when highly reliable prescription methods fail abortion is a burden both financially and in other ways including emotionally. I have never dismissed that.

        In the end if you think I’m immoral or even evil that’s your opinion and you’re entitle to it. I don’t believe abortion is wrong or immoral, but when it comes down to it being a guy I’ve never been in a position to have to carry what, if all goes right will be a live born baby to birth with all the changes and sometimes life disruptions that can result from doing so. I believe it’s not my choice to make for any woman. It’s a woman’s choice. CHOICE. If YOU believe abortion, or certain forms of birth control are wrong/immoral you too have a choice. Don’t have an abortion or use those forms of birth control you object to. That is YOUR choice. CHOICE.

        The difference between us is that you want to force your moral code on everyone else and I don’t.

        Not all religions, and not even all Christian religions say abortion is wrong/immoral and/or a sin. In fact, as I’ve noted in the past day in the Jewish faith the life of the mother takes precedence over that of a fetus and when the mother’s life is endangered abortion is required under that religion’s doctrine. So if your objection is faith based I will close with reminding you that your particular beliefs are not those of all people of faith, or even all (or even most) who identify as Christians.

      • I.have been spending time on Occupy Democrats and Now This politics. I can tell you that a,lot of very dimwitted and poorly educated (judging by their lack of knowledge of grammar, punctuation, spelling and basic logic) GOP ers are looking forward to.banning birth control,gay marriage,,gsyb rights, women’s rights, secular education, any books,,tv or movies deemed insufficiently Christian,and other issues that are so insane I cannot even begin to articulate them.
        DeSantis the taking on the Mouse has got them chomping at the bit. They are all.blurred Xeroxes of Ronnie,screeching about pedophiles,,sex trafficking, and grooming. They all.sing the same hymn. It comes down to.banning everything that makes them.uncomfortable or forces them to think. They grew up.memorizing Bible verses,so.they are excellent at parroting the insult du jour. They smell.blood in the water,and they will.keep!pushing until.all.schools are Christians, all women are virginal.or married and perpetually pregnant,and gays ate back.in the closet (or maybe the dungeon). They see the hand a id’s to tale as a DIY manual, not a horror novel.

  3. The Fourth Amendment provides that, among other things, we have the right to be free from wholesale government search and seizure of ourselves and our property, IF we have established an expectation of privacy that is both objectively and subjectively reasonable. Things like your medical records, religion, personal relationships and beliefs are a few of the things we consider to be among our private affairs.

    But according to Alito, there is NO RIGHT TO PRIVACY anywhere in the Constitution. If you have no right to privacy, everything you think, say and do is subject to governmental control.
    Welcome to the new North Korea, MAGA version.

  4. That and a good portion of their base has bought into the fact that the elections are rigged (tRump’s “Big Lie”) and they’re anti-vaxxers who ore dying of COVID. Things aren’t lining up well for team-MAGA

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