God I love it when pure stupid is so purely rewarded. MSNBC just reported that both Finland and Swedem will join NATO sometime early this summer, likely within the next 90 days. And with that will make Russia’s position in europe vs NATO totally untenable.
A little while ago, in Stand Up And Take A Bow Fool I, I wrote about this. Because of Putin’s incursion into Ukraine, Sweden and Finland started rethinking the wisdom of joining NATO. I wrote at the time that Putin was basically cutting off his nose to spite his face. Russia shares a 1925 km border with Ukraine. Putin obviously wanted to remove that border as a threat to him. But while Ukraine’s constitution calls for it to join NATO, right now Ukraine isn’t even qualified to join NATO. And Ukraine itself has been rather ambivalent about changing the constitution in return for international guarantees of sovereignty. From where I’m sitting, Putin made a dick move to try to restore some of the former Soviet Union.
When Putin heard that Finland and Sweden were considering joining NATO, he went postal. He threatened dire consequences if they made such a provocative move. My first question was What the fuck was he going to do? He can’t even stay afloat, literally in Ukraine, so now he’s going to invade Finland, a country that already kicked Stalin’s ass? It was ridiculous.
But see, here’s the Mcguffin. Putin attacked a country that wasn’t a NATO signatory, which means that in a Russia-NATO confrontation, NATO wouldn’t enter into or fly over Ukraine territory. And Putin’s basic problem with NAYO is that is is largely a European ground alliance. Most of the NATO countries in Europe are on Russia’s western border. Basically a 1 front war.
There are of course the Baltic States, but they are problematic. Because while they border Russia on the south, they also have the Baltic Sea to their north, which Russia already has a significant presence in. In a Baltic conflict, NATO and the US would have logistical supply and manpower problems.
But with Finland’s approval to NATO, Putin’s stupidity just opened up a whole nother 840 mile, soon to be NATO controlled border, to his north! And as anybody from Napoleon to Hitler can tell you, opening a two front wart is a recipe for disaster. No country is strong enough to successfully man two fronts at once.
In his thirst to restore the former glory of the Soviet Union, Putin not only screwed himself, but he screwed his successor as well, unless he opts for actual democracy. Putin is going to lose in Ukraine. He’ll continue to have a long border on his south, to a country who might not be mickle displeased at giving NATO transit rights during a war, and now he has an 800 mile border on his north that directly threatens St Petersburg. Only Putin could isolate his country even more. And Trump thinks that Putin Is a genius for invading Ukraine. What a fucking moron.
As I understand it, EVERY current member of NATO has to approve the admission of each new member.
So, is there any member who might block Finland and/or Sweden (let alone Ukraine or Moldova)? Offhand I see two possible “no” voters:
1. The United States (!!) if Trump lobbies against the expansion, perhaps under orders from Putin, and enough Republicans go along.
2. Hungary, again perhaps if Orban gets orders from Putin.
I’m a long way from Europe, but I imagine either of these countries preventing Finland/Sweden joining would result in a SPECTACULAR political upheaval.
I mentioned this point recently. Even countries like Hungary and Turkey gave indications they wouldn’t oppose the additions, and that the biggest obstacle would be the fucking GOP in the United States Senate. NATO is a treaty organization (the T part of the acronym) and so for us the modification of the treaty requires consent (“with the advice and consent of the Senate” term in our Constitution) and THAT requires two-thirds of the Senate approve the modification to the treaty to admit new members. That means we’d have to have seventeen Republicans agree and that’s far from being guaranteed. My guess is that probably at least thirty and maybe close to forty would want to vote yes, but most will be afraid to do so because of Traitor Tot Trump and his “base” of MAGAts running around in their I’d Rather Be Russian Than Democrat” t-shirts.
the vote for the previous additions to NATO Latvia, Poland etc. was 98-0. But that was when Bush jr was president.
There was SOME concern about the GOP Senate fucking it up, b
The GOP will vote against it because it’s a good idea. But they don’t actually have a majority.
Actually, bringing Sweden in alone reduces Russia’s odds in the Baltic since virtually all of Sweden’s coast is along the Baltic Sea (the slight bit that isn’t Baltic coast is an extension of the North Sea–the Kattegat Sea and the Skaggerak strait).
The only question left to ask: how long does Vladimir Vladimirovitch or his soon-to-be-froze-out nation survive this colossal mistake? Anyone thinking China and India alone can carry them through the rough times ahead is frankly delusional.