“What a fool believes, he sees.” — Doobie Brothers
The problem with living in a bubble is that at some point, something happens to burst it. Reality comes along eventually, and the more insulated the bubble dweller is, the more shocking the moment of truth tends to be. With that in mind, 80% of Trump voters believe that their boy is going to win, according to a poll by Marquette Law School.
Expectations for the election
Sixteen percent of likely voters expect Trump to win the election by a lot, 23 percent think Trump will win by a little, 29% think Biden will win by a little and 17% think Biden will win by a lot.
Eighty percent of Trump voters expect him to win and 11% expect Biden to win. Among Biden voters, 80% expect him to win and 6% expect Trump to win.
Twenty-seven percent of likely voters say they are very confident that the votes will be accurately cast and counted in the election, with 43% somewhat confident, 21% not too confident and 7% not at all confident.
Among Republicans, 61% say they are very or somewhat confident the votes will be accurately counted and 37% are not too confident or not at all confident. Eighty-two percent of Democrats are very or somewhat confident the vote will be accurately counted, while 18% are not too or not at all confident.
The 32 scientific polls in the country are basically predicting a sound Democratic victory. To that end, some not so scientific polls are springing up. Look, Trump has an audience. That’s how he got where he got in the first place. His marks are in place and the con goes on — and it will go on post November 3, when Trump TV gets launched. The Triad:
You want to know how badly these people want to believe?
Trafalgar is the “polling” operation that Rich Lowry fluffed last week. If you want to understand who/what Trafalgar is, let me offer the following analogy:
Trafalgar is to Rasmussen [what]
OAN is to Fox News
Trafalgar has a new poll out from Pennsylvania, showing Trump ahead, 46.7 percent to 45.8 percent.
Now, I don’t mind that. Pollsters don’t all use the same methodology or get the same results. I’m perfectly willing to believe the possibility that in a poll with an MOE of 2.9 percent, Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania by 0.9 points.
By which I mean: That’s outside the polling average for the state, but I could believe that a pollster making a good-faith effort might get that result.
But when you dig into the cross-tabs, what Trafalgar is doing looks . . . well, I don’t want to categorize it. You can draw your own conclusions. I’ll just give you this:
Trafalgar shows Trump winning voters 18-24 by +8.
And not only that, but this poll posits that voters aged 18-24 are Trump’s best demographic group.
Ladies and gentlemen, I present: The Shy Trump Teens!
You and I can laugh about this, but the big lesson of 2020 is that there are tens of millions of people who not only believe this right now, but will believe it after the election, too—no matter what the “official” results are.
And those people can—and will—be monetized.
Brad Parscale got the wheelbarrows of money from somewhere. There was a billion dollars, we are told, at one time. This gang of grifters is not going to let loose from this cash cow. For them it’s not about public policy, social conscience, none of that. It’s about the color of grass.