“What a fool believes, he sees.” — Doobie Brothers

The problem with living in a bubble is that at some point, something happens to burst it. Reality comes along eventually, and the more insulated the bubble dweller is, the more shocking the moment of truth tends to be. With that in mind, 80% of Trump voters believe that their boy is going to win, according to a poll by Marquette Law School.

Expectations for the election

Sixteen percent of likely voters expect Trump to win the election by a lot, 23 percent think Trump will win by a little, 29% think Biden will win by a little and 17% think Biden will win by a lot.

Eighty percent of Trump voters expect him to win and 11% expect Biden to win. Among Biden voters, 80% expect him to win and 6% expect Trump to win.

Twenty-seven percent of likely voters say they are very confident that the votes will be accurately cast and counted in the election, with 43% somewhat confident, 21% not too confident and 7% not at all confident.

Among Republicans, 61% say they are very or somewhat confident the votes will be accurately counted and 37% are not too confident or not at all confident. Eighty-two percent of Democrats are very or somewhat confident the vote will be accurately counted, while 18% are not too or not at all confident.

The 32 scientific polls in the country are basically predicting a sound Democratic victory. To that end, some not so scientific polls are springing up. Look, Trump has an audience. That’s how he got where he got in the first place. His marks are in place and the con goes on — and it will go on post November 3, when Trump TV gets launched. The Triad:

You want to know how badly these people want to believe?

Trafalgar is the “polling” operation that Rich Lowry fluffed last week. If you want to understand who/what Trafalgar is, let me offer the following analogy:

Trafalgar is to Rasmussen [what]

OAN is to Fox News

Trafalgar has a new poll out from Pennsylvania, showing Trump ahead, 46.7 percent to 45.8 percent.

Now, I don’t mind that. Pollsters don’t all use the same methodology or get the same results. I’m perfectly willing to believe the possibility that in a poll with an MOE of 2.9 percent, Trump is ahead in Pennsylvania by 0.9 points.

By which I mean: That’s outside the polling average for the state, but I could believe that a pollster making a good-faith effort might get that result.

But when you dig into the cross-tabs, what Trafalgar is doing looks . . . well, I don’t want to categorize it. You can draw your own conclusions. I’ll just give you this:

Trafalgar shows Trump winning voters 18-24 by +8.

And not only that, but this poll posits that voters aged 18-24 are Trump’s best demographic group.

Ladies and gentlemen, I present: The Shy Trump Teens!

You and I can laugh about this, but the big lesson of 2020 is that there are tens of millions of people who not only believe this right now, but will believe it after the election, too—no matter what the “official” results are.

And those people can—and will—be monetized.

Brad Parscale got the wheelbarrows of money from somewhere. There was a billion dollars, we are told, at one time. This gang of grifters is not going to let loose from this cash cow. For them it’s not about public policy, social conscience, none of that. It’s about the color of grass.

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20 Comments on "Trump Walks Into Thunderdome In 5 Days 80% Of His Followers Believe He’ll Walk Out"

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Bareshark
Guest

Don’t give a damn what they expect. All I’m focused on is doing everything I can to break their hearts.

p j evans
Member

Their by-gender numbers aren’t too far from reality. The rest – well, there’s a reason 538 doesn’t use Trafalgar.

Lil Blue Sock
Member

What to Trump-O and pumpkins have in common???

They are both orange on the outside, hollow in the middle and responsible people throw them both out the first week in November.

*smirk*

Carol O
Guest

Excellent!

blueman
Member

I have a trunk full of mail from Republican grifters trying to suck money out of my dad and I assume millions of others. At some point I am going to make mail fraud complaints to the post office. The lies come from the full spectrum of fascist . Trump to FOX. Nikki Haley to obscure Republicans running for congress. Multitudes of so called non-profits. As it will be a lot of work it can all been done online. I will probably wait till Biden is in office. It is mind boggling and nauseating.

Lil Blue Sock
Member

I stamp them “return to sender” and drop them back in the mailbox.

rory darjiit
Member

I enjoyed the article, but spent the whole time wondering what thunder dome is. Sporting reference?

tvoss123
Member

Mad Max movie. Beyond Thunderdome.

Bareshark
Guest

“Two men enter. One man leaves!”

Nancy North
Guest

Ohhhh. Thanks. Never saw the movie.

Bareshark
Guest

Except for the end, me neither, Nancy. I just know it by cultural osmosis. Peter David supplied me with the money quote I used.

rory darjiit
Member

Got it, an old movie.

Omg…that crazy racist guy used to be an actor! Ok…that I knew. But I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Mel Gibson movie. Checking IMDB…hmm…yeah, I’ve never seen a Mel Gibson movie. Except Gallipoli, and I don’t remember him being prominent in that.

Bareshark
Guest

Nah, Mad Max was his first breakout hit. If you’d like to see another film full of people well before they got famous, check out The Bounty. It had Gibson as Fletcher Christian, Anthony Hopkins as Captain Bligh and ALSO had Liam Neeson and Daniel Day-Lewis. Again, this was well before ANY of them hit the big time.

rory darjiit
Member

Wow, crazy cast, I will check it out.

rory darjiit
Member
The fall of Trafalgar is pretty amusing. They weren’t particularly accurate in 2016, but they were on the “right side of the line” in the swing states so they looked brilliant. They had the GOP expanding its House majority in 2018…oops. I’m not sure what happened there in 2020. I doubt we will ever know the truth. But they appear to have gone from doing real polls with highly favorable conservative modeling to just outright fake polls. Maybe someone on polling like their local church and pocketing the six figure cost per poll. Who knows. Another gem is a site… Read more »