Hey Cyrus, this is your barbecue man, and it tastes good Nicholas Cage Con Air
Yeah, yeah, I know. But, but, but, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Don’t worry, Biden and Harris don’t just obsess about 2016, they learned from it! They won’t be ignored. In fact, just like Jake and Elwood, Joe and Barack are putting the band back together for the weekend! Please, for five little minutes, forget 2016, and remember that this is 2020.
Going into 2020, Trump’s reelection strategy was pretty simple, basically, recreate 2016. Piece of cake, since it’s all that Trump knows how to do. Hold the red states he won in 2016, simple as none of then were ever in danger of flipping with Hillary on the ballot, and steal Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Without the arrival of the coronavirus, and with no vulnerable red state flips to worry about, Trump could basically take up residence in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and focus his advertising there.
But it didn’t work out that way. Starting with the off year and special elections of 2017, Trump started bleeding white suburban women, college educated whites, and heightened minority turnout. It got even worse in 2018, with the bleeding unabated, helping to minimize Democratic Senate losses, and flipping the House by a stunning margin. And most importantly, state legislatures and state houses started to flip. Trump’s red base was starting to crumble.
Remember, the plan was for Trump to be getting his mail in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Instead, Trump spent yesterday in Arizona, treating GOP Senator Martha McSally like an unruly puppy, and today in Florida. And over the last 4 days, he still has to hit up North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio. All of these are states that he handily won in 2016, but where Biden is now either leading or within the margin of error. And while Biden can carpet bomb the airwaves in the big three with advertising, Trump is sucking wind.
Look at the schedule the last few days. Biden was in Pennsylvania for a quickie, but he’s also been in Georgia and Florida. Harris was in Nevada to shore it up, and will be in Arizona and Texas. Notice the common threads there? If you remove Pennsylvania and Nevada, all of them are states that Trump won comfortably in 2016, and all of them have vulnerable GOP Senate incumbents on the ballot.
That’s the strength of the Biden-Harris schedule. Biden is ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin outside of the margin of error, and at the tip of the margin in Pennsylvania. They won’t be ignored. But being able to visit all of these other states where the Democrats have a legitimate shot, not only do Biden and Harris make Trump chase them around like an idiot, keeping him out of the big three. And when the superstars show up to give a show, now you have the possibility of coattails forming that other candidates can ride on.
But on an even more fundamental level, this is about more, and it’s why I love this schedule so much. Trump has already lost the one fundamental thing that gave the GOP their greatest strength in quite a few states, the white suburban and exurban voters that offset the Democrats strength in the major urban areas. And this is an unexpected, one time shot to defuse a decade worth of abuse.
When Tom Perez took over the DNC, he swore that he was going to follow and adhere to a 50 state strategy, and the man is good to his word. The object is to compete like hell everywhere, and make the GOP defend everything. It took 2 cycles, 2017 and 2019, but the Democrats flipped the Virginia legislature, and got the state house as well. In Illinois, Democrats flipped suburban and rural seats that had never had a Democratic ass sitting in them down in Springfield.
And it’s not going anywhere. Beto O’Roarke is almost gushing at the Democrats chances to flip the Texas legislature, something they started in 2018, and present
Greg Abbott withy something no GOP Texas Governor has faced since 1996, namely a hostile legislature. Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and even Florida are within reach for the Democrats to flip at least one chamber with a strong enough showing. And this will never be more critical.
Because this is 2020. The year of the census. Next year, state legislatures are going to redraw their district maps based on the census results. And having the Democrats control at least one chamber will allow them to negate the brutal excesses that unified GOP legislatures and governorships have put on their states.
And thankfully, Biden and Harris get this. Big time. At every rally in one of these red states that are now suddenly in play, throughout their stump speeches, they repeatedly emphasize the importance of not only voting for Biden and Harris at the top of the ticket, but to continue to vote blue all the way down the ballot! And they graphically say why, to allow these people to finally, if not totally free themselves from the yoke of GOP gerrymandering, then to make it more equitable with their ability to stymie any blatant GOP attempts to maintain the status quo.
Look, do both me as well as yourself a favor. Let the pros do their job. They have this well in hand. Even if Biden loses Pennsylvania, which is becoming increasingly unlikely, a flip of Texas, Georgia, Florida, or Ohio would still put him over 270. And there are others as well, such as flipping Arizona, and taking the 2nd district of Nebraska, which is why Trump was so desperate that he took another shot at negligent homicide to hold a rally in freezing temperatures to hold it. We’ll get there. But this is the only shot we’ll have to dismember the evils of GOP Gerrymandering for the next decade. We can’t let that opportunity go by the wayside. 5 more days. Pedal to the metal, and GOTV!
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