I guess it wouldn’t be Donald Trump if he didn’t try to see if smoke and mirrors would work. After all, that’s all he is, is an illusionist and a fake, and artifice and deception are all he’s ever had to work with.

Those are some hefty figures, 18, 19 points. I went over to CBS and here’s what’s there:

In the final stretch of the campaign, we find three Southern battlegrounds that could still go either way. Our estimates show Joe Biden with just a two-point edge over President Trump in Florida, Biden up four points in North Carolina, and the contest even in Georgia.

Millions have already voted and many others say they’ve already decided. While early voters in each state told us they substantially favored Biden, those who have not yet voted heavily favor Mr. Trump, setting up a key turnout test running now through Election Day for both parties.

If you click the link, you’ll see a chart that addresses people who have already voted and people who intend to vote.

Now look at the numbers. Yes, Trump is leading amongst voters who haven’t voted yet and you knew that. He’s depending upon a big turnout on November 3. The factor that needs to be assessed here, is that already half the electorate in Florida and North Carolina have already voted, and 43% in Georgia — so Trump is talking about leading in a percentage of a percentage, i.e., the percentage of the electorate that has yet to vote in these states.

Point being, Trump wants the press to report these figures, as he gave it to them, and not put them in context. Nothing new there at all. It’s called clutching at straws.

Now here are a couple of other comments on Twitter which will warm your heart. This is from the Cook Report.

Having Texas in play at all is amazing. If anything is a sign of the times, Texas in play is it.

Eight more days.


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10 Comments on "Trump Gaslights the Press On Air Force One With Phony Poll"

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Denis Elliott
Lets break that down a little more. I’ll use FL as my example. Assume (to make it easy) a pool of 100 voters who have either voted early or intend to vote, and again assume that half will have voted early and half will vote on election day. Yes, early voting actually suggests early voting has already or will by the time early voting ends result in MORE than 50% of votes being cast early but again let’s keep it simple. (more on that in a bit) Now, assuming 50 voters in FL have already voted that means Biden has… Read more »
Denis Elliott

Btw, in NC over 43% of registered voters have already voted and over 66% of the total vote of 2016 is already on the books. As of yesterday. And there are days of early voting left to go with lots of people voting. To date we are doing quite well in the early vote. So, fingers crossed. Oh, and we should be able to announce results fairly quickly on election night.

old grey dude

40 plus in texas as well

p j evans

30% have already voted in CA. Voting early is a great idea!

Hmm. Let’s apply a little math to those graphs. We’ll use a base of 10000 voters in each state. In NC, we have 51% already voted so 49% haven’t voted. That would mean we’ll have 5100 votes already cast to 4900 not yet cast (but intended). Of the 5100 who’ve already voted, 3111 (61%) voted for Biden and 1836 (36%) voted for Trump (we have 153 votes unaccounted for; presumably these were for other candidates or the voter just refused to disclose). Of 4900 who haven’t voted (but intend to), 2009 (41%) support Biden and 2842 (58%) support Trump (leaving… Read more »

Wow! That’s a lot of good math for a Monday! Nicely done!

Nancy North


rory darjiit
Things to consider about that data: – The intention columns will shift – maybe more of those voters show up, maybe less. In all likelihood, there’s some erosion. If election day voting erodes by 5% for whatever reasons…that is where Trump’s election day voting strategy can come back to haunt him. – We geographically self sort, meaning we tend to live in Democratic or Republican footprints. If Republicans are all piling on to vote on Election Day…will they create long lines and suppress their own vote? – The Dem GOTV machine is very good…I’ve done GOTV in 5+ elections. Never… Read more »

I believe you should be referring to Monte Cassino, but what do I know?

Lil Blue Sock

The only number that matters is the number of Trump supporters who will be able to make it to the polls or even be alive to vote by Election Day.

His hatefest super spreader events continue.