The knee jerk reaction of the Trump campaign to bad polling news is that, “the polls were wrong in 2016 and they’re wrong now.” The polls in 2016 were not wrong. There were any number of polls that showed Clinton and Trump neck and neck and on a few occasions, Trump’s polling overtook Clinton’s. In this contest, Joe Biden took an early lead in the summer and he has maintained it. That is a different kettle of fish altogether. Politico:
— WAPO/ABC: JOE BIDEN is leading DONALD TRUMP 53-43 among registered voters, and 54-44 among likely voters. WaPo’s Dan Balz and Emily Guskin with more
ABC’S @rickklein: “Clinton won political moderates by 12 points. Biden leads among them by 47 … Clinton won independent women by four points. Biden leads among them by 57 points.”
— NYT/SIENA: BIDEN leads TRUMP 49-41. NYT’s Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns with more
— NBC NEWS/MARIST: MICHIGAN: BIDEN 52, TRUMP 44 … WISCONSIN: BIDEN 54, TRUMP 44.
BIDEN, as you see above, is above 50 in both states.
— CBS: GEORGIA: TRUMP 47, BIDEN 46 … NORTH CAROLINA: BIDEN 48, TRUMP 46.
The two states above, Georgia and North Carolina, are in a statistical tie. That is not a good sign for traditionally deep red states. 538 reports current polling in Texas showing Trump leading by one point in one poll and by three points in another. Again, not a terrific sign for the ruby red jewel in the GOP crown.