The old adage is you never miss something until it’s gone. Which to me seems pretty fucking stupid, since how do you miss something that’s sitting right there in front of you. But that is the miracle of El Pendejo Presidente, he’s such a moron that he gives even something stupid the clarity of truth.
Lately, Democratic strategist David Plouffe, who engineered Obama’s historic victories has been saying something that is brilliant in its simplicity, It’s always easier to get back a vote that you lost than it is to get a new one. And Joe Biden is living proof of that. Biden was the consensus front runner going into the primaries. But after running a dog shit campaign out of the blocks, his support understandably dwindled. But a couple of strong debate performances, and a solid second place finish in Nevada let people know that Joe was back! — and all was forgiven in South Carolina and Super Tuesday. It really is that simple, it’s easier to get back something you lost than to get something new.
The thing that you can never forget is that primaries are always a purely base affair. Only voters who are truly passionate about a candidate or issue will show up just to try to ensure that their candidate gets on the ballot. And after a slow start with a mob scene, as the field winnowed and shit got real, intensity and turnout are up.
Look what the primaries have done for the Democrats. Even with a crowded field, most of the candidates got face time giving their speeches and rallies. There have been 10 nationally televised debates, with solid viewership numbers. And primary nights have been widely covered wall-to-wall by the major “news” networks.
And on the Republican side? *cheep cheep cheep* Thanks to His Lowness’ prickly ego, GOP state after GOP state has been forced to cancel their presidential primary in their states. As a result, Trump has been reduced to following the Democrats around like their kid brother, giving a speech the night before the primary that isn’t even televised except on FOX News, and that’s not even in its entirety.
For most incumbent presidents, primaries are rare, and largely unnecessary. That’s because most incumbent presidents hold to an even keel, and do things to make their reelection easier. But Trump’s entire first term has been enveloped in nonstop scandal, Trump-Russia, the Ukraine debacle, the third impeachment trial in US history, and now a burgeoning coronavirus crisis for which the administration is woefully unprepared and incompetent. Trump’s base may be rabid, but the constant pounding of bad news has to be disheartening, and everybody can use a pick-me-up.
Trump is literally throwing away six valuable months. If the GOP was actually running a primary campaign, Trump could give rallies to his heart’s content at taxpayer expense, and get national face time on the news. And the debates would be manna from heaven for Trump. Who cares what Weld and Walsh say about Trump on stage? Trump’s base isn’t going to listen to any of their shit. But a presidential primary would get a national audience, and Trump would get to spend two joyous hours calling Weld and Walsh childish names, and hurling third rate insults and slander, which would have his base audience spraying beer out of their mouths, and pounding each other on the back in merriment. How many people can go to a Trump rally? 10,000? 15,000 maybe? But how many base Trump supporters would a series of nationally televised debates reach? Man! Talk about ginning up the base!
Here’s how I see this playing out. The Democrats are using a positive, issues driven primary campaign to drum up passion and support that they can take into their convention in Milwaukee. They will hold a positive, uplifting message convention, rally around their candidate, and come blasting out of the gate into the general election cycle. Meanwhile, Trump will get little to no national campaign coverage for the next four months, except negative current news coverage, hold a rigged convention with the same old hatred and vitriol, and then lumber out of the convention and back to business as usual on the campaign trail. And if I’m a white, suburban GOP voter that is going to help decide this election, I pretty much know which way I’m going. Don’t touch that dial.
To know the future, look to the past.before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity of the 2016 GOP primary campaign, and the general election, to see how we got to where we are. Copies of President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange are available as e-books on Amazon, at the links above. Catch up before the upcoming release of the third book in the trilogy, President Evil III: All The Presidents Fen