The first part of this interview with reknowned economist Nouriel Roubini discusses how China is being less than forthcoming in it’s reports on the coronavirus and how it’s affecting people there. Roubini reports that he has a colleague in Shanghai who has been locked in his own home for weeks. He also says that he expects a recession in China, which would lead to a global recession, as a result of the coronavirus. Roubini also says he would not be surprised if there was some kind of a military skirmish in the Strait of Formosa. Here is the portion of the interview regarding Donald Trump and why he won’t be reelected. Der Spiegel:

DER SPIEGEL: This crisis [coronavirus] is obviously a setback for globalization. Do you think politicians like Trump, who want their companies to abandon production abroad, will benefit?

Roubini: He will try to reap benefits from this crisis, that’s for sure. But everything will change when coronavirus reaches the U.S. You can’t build a wall in the sky. Look, I live in New York City and people there are hardly going to restaurants, cinemas or theaters, even though nobody there has been infected by the virus thus far. If it comes, we are totally fucked.

DER SPIEGEL: A perfect scare-scenario for Trump?

Roubini: Not at all. He will lose the election, that’s for sure.

DER SPIEGEL: A bold prediction. What makes you so sure?

Roubini: Because there is a significant risk of a war between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. government wants regime change, and they will bomb the hell out of the Iranians. But Iranians are used to suffering, believe me, I am an Iranian Jew, and I know them! And the Iranians also want regime change in the U.S. The tensions will drive up oil prices and lead inevitably to Trumps defeat in the elections.

DER SPIEGEL: What makes you so sure?

Roubini: This has always the case in history. Ford lost to Carter after the 1973 oil shock, Carter lost to Reagan due to the second oil crisis in 1979, and Bush lost to Clinton after the Kuwait invasion. The Democratic field is poor, but Trump is dead. Quote me on that!

DER SPIEGEL: A war against Iran is needed to beat Trump?

Roubini: Absolutely, and it’s worth it. Four more years of Trump means economic war!

DER SPIEGEL: What should investors do to brace for the impact?

Roubini: I expect global equities to tank by 30 to 40 percent this year. My advice is: Put your money into cash and safe government bonds, like German bunds. They have negative rates, but so what? That just means that prices will rise and rise – you can make a lot of money that way. And if I am wrong and equities go up by 10 percent instead, that’s also OK. You have to hedge your money against a crash, that is more important. That’s my motto: “Better safe than sorry!”

This is all very plausible and certainly sobering. I think that he’s right insofar as the period of economic expansion we’ve witnessed the past eleven years is over and that change is happening now. As to how bad it will get, we never know that, now do we?

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13 Comments on "‘Trump Is Dead’ Predicts Star Economist Who Correctly Foresaw 2008 Crash"

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blueman
Member
First, Trump controls the media and may actually get sympathy votes out of this. I thought when his contact with Russia in June of 2016 became know, he was done. He will kill to keep his job. If he gets beat in the election, he is pretty sure he will go to jail. Nothing with this monster and his cult is known. Second, this pandemic is bad and who do you think this will hurt the most? The uninsured. Who do you think will lose their jobs first? Probably the poorest in the organization. This is going to hurt our… Read more »
Bareshark
Guest

No, he does not control the media, Blue, or we still wouldn’t get all the inside info they foolishly can’t cover up. And there’ll be no sympathy votes for this devil when the economic crunch hits just from the illnesses of the last month in China alone. Add in folks being hospitalized with no insurance, a crash that’s a replay of 2008 and the stunning incompetence of the cult and he’s as finished as Prince Prospero at the end of his party.

blueman
Member

Bareshark, I hope so. This is bad yet every Republican I have talked to about it thinks it won’t be that bad. God, I hope you and the guy in the article are right. But a war with Iran?

Bareshark
Guest

And how often have those Republicans been right about ANYTHING these last three years? Anybody still hanging around the GOP at this point is a cultist, willfully ignorant or both.

Jay
Guest
I think Blueman means that Trump controls FoxNews and thus controls the media his base pays attention to. If trumps base was well informed or even moderately informed Trump and his kids would be sitting in jail now. The Dems need mod GOPers and ‘independents’ (people that I’ve had interaction with that claim to be ‘independent’ are actually right wingers who don’t support trump but still watch FoxNews) to vote for their candidate to beat trump in electoral college. So, with Trump controlling Fox, I don’t know if trump will lose support over corona virus. Trump will lie as he… Read more »
Bareshark
Guest

Don’t confuse the moderates (who have long since fled) with the cultists (who couldn’t be persuaded anyway) in either outlook or numbers.

Jay
Guest
There are plenty of moderates still supportIng trump. There are a ton of right wingers that don’t support trump that watch Fox News and think the mainstream media is horrifyingly liberal biased And genuinely think they are independent. When I referred to moderate GOPers and ’independents’, I was referring to people who support the GOP in general, whose views are genuinely middle of the road. People who may be racist bigots who don’t like some of the things trump says and does and if given a moderate democrat for a choice, might vote for that person, but absolutely WON’T vote… Read more »
Bareshark
Guest

In other words, you’re still describing the same cultists and moderates I was talking about, only your examples tell each other different fairy tales. No disrespect but I could care less about any of what you just told me. They can figure out themselves or they can whacked in the face when reality pulls a Kool-aid Man maneuver. Appealing to them is a waste of time, understanding them a pointless activity until later. If they’re not helping, they’re in my way.

Jay
Guest
Who said anything about appealing to them? Some are sick of trump and will vote for someone who’s middle of the road. If they don’t have a middle of the road option they’ll vote for trump. His base won’t vote for anyone else, regardless. What you seem to not get is that your ‘moderates’ and ‘cultists’ will NOT be whacked in the face by reality. They watch Fox News and Fox News feeds them fantasy. They and their family will be dying of corona virus and Fox will tell them it’s the democrats fault and they’ll believe it. They’ll hang… Read more »
Bareshark
Guest
I’m obviously not making myself clear here, so I’m going to have to be 2X4 blunt to get the message through. To wit, I…don’t…care…about a single thing you’re saying. The unreachable and irredeemable are beyond my concern because they have chosen not to matter. Let them wallow in their delusions for the rest of their born days. I have better things to do than give them any of the thought you just wasted upon them. They may never see the light but public ostracism will make them hide their loyalty and/or their shame. When Trump leaves office, he will never… Read more »
Nobsartist
Guest

The dump can neither control his mouth or his bowel movements which is why it’s so difficult to tell them apart….

Chris Whitley
Guest

One of his butt buddies just bought a controlling interest in twitter and he’s already trying to make it more “conservative”. I don’t have to worry. I ghost kicked off for insinuating a conservative was stretching the truth on his poor boy childhood when he actually grew up in a house that the guesthouse had a private pool. One of three I believe.

Nick Sullivan
Member

Um … no. There’s not gonna be any war and really, Roubini? “Worth it”? Yeah, what’s multiple thousands of violent deaths?