… it was the season of light, it was the season of darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities

Don’t doubt for a moment that Democrats are going to go up and down on the see saw and take a few spins on the merry-go-round before some candidate grabs the brass ring and this is over. Joe Biden polled high nationally before the first of the year, since then we’ve seen the rise of Bernie Sanders, and now it looks like that situation could reverse itself in South Carolina. Public Policy Polling:

PPP’s newest poll of Democratic primary voters in South Carolina finds it looking like a two person race, with only Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders reaching double digits in their support. Biden gets 36% to 21% for Sanders, with Elizabeth Warren at 8%, Pete Buttigieg and Tom Steyer at 7%, Tulsi Gabbard at 6%, and Amy Klobuchar at 3% rounding out the field.

Other recent polls have found Steyer’s support in the 15-20% range. If he has indeed collapsed, as our poll seems to suggest, it appears his former supporters are making their way to Biden and helping him to open a bigger lead in the state. The key to Biden’s success continues to be strong support from African Americans- he gets 50% to 21% for Sanders, with no one else polling above 6%.

The South Carolina numbers show the difficulty Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and even Elizabeth Warren are going to face as the Democratic contest moves to more diverse states. The race is actually pretty close among white voters with Sanders getting 22%, Biden 20%, and Warren and Buttigieg each 15%. But Warren and Buttigieg are each at 2% with black voters, dropping their overall support into single digits. Klobuchar gets just 1% with African Americans.

Very simply, if the poll is accurate, then the only two candidates coming out of South Carolina with delegates will be Biden and Sanders. That might act as a catalyst for other candidates to throw in the towel. That said, Amy Klobuchar is said to be polling double digits in Minnesota, which makes sense, so maybe she’ll stay in for a while longer? It’s questionable whether Tom Steyer will. What Pete Buttigieg will do is anybody’s guess. He started out strong and certainly doesn’t want to throw it all aside at this point. This primary/caucus process is as much a display of the candidates’ mettle, as it is an actual game of numbers.

Two things can be expected for Biden and Sanders, again, if this poll is accurate. Sanders “expanding coalition” won’t be perceived as expanding any longer, if he loses by double digits to Biden in South Carolina. This is Biden’s oft-touted “firewall” of African American support. The second thing that will occur, if this poll is correct, is that Biden will finally be in the game. If he were to lose in South Carolina, that would pretty much be his death knell.

It will be interesting to see how this all sorts through. There is still too large of a field of candidates at this point. Somebody has to drop out and South Carolina may provide just the impetus.

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16 Comments on "Biden Leads Bernie By 15% In South Carolina, according to New Poll"

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Tin woman1
Guest

I don’t watch polls or read them much. I already voted absentee in Ca. so I’m good. Then anyone who takes all the marbles at the convention gets my vote. I want that thing out of the peoples House.

Bareshark
Guest

Sanders’ “rise” was likely always a heat mirage. But I gotta say that this last week has given me a whole appreciation of Uncle Joe.

mae
Member

I hope the Sanders bubble bursts saturday.

Bareshark
Guest

Either then or Super Tuesday is my bet.

mae
Member

I was disturbed by his Castro comment, and by the fact that he could not explain how he would pay for his Medicare plan. After all of these years touting it, he should know this.

Bareshark
Guest

That plan was always a mirage too. He used it as a selling point, nothing more. And now touting China as well? He wants to lose that badly, just drop out already!

mae
Member

What do you think the chosen argument will be, for his campaigh staff, and his supporters, if he loses next Saturday?

Bareshark
Guest

Doubling down on the golden oldies: establishment, Wall Street, revolution, the majority, blah, blah, blah. At which point, SOMEONE should ask why it took WaPo to get him to talk about Russian aid to his campaign.

mae
Member

Yeah, his statement lumps republicans and democrats together, then he separated himself, and his supporters from the ” democratic establishment. ” That was explained away, as well.

Denis Elliott
Member
With Super Tuesday following so close on the heels of SC I don’t see anyone dropping out regardless of what happens in SC. Whether anyone should or not is a separate question. However given how much the remaining candidates have invested (not just money but time/effort) to get to this point I’d be surprised, even stunned if all of them don’t wait until next week to sit down and evaluate their chances. IOW, even candidates polling way down and who we all know have almost no chance (if any at all) will hope for some kind of miracle on Super… Read more »
Joseph
Guest

What’s interesting about Sanders’ support in South Carolina is that, in 2016, he only got 26% of the vote–in a TWO-PERSON race (and, most polls taken in the week before the 2016 primary had him with numbers in the 30s–a Clemson poll had him at just 14%). And now, polls are showing him with just 21% in a much larger race so it looks like South Carolina isn’t going to “feel the Bern” any more than it did 4 years ago.

mae
Member

If he loses, it will be ugly.

Bareshark
Guest

He’s allegedly WINNING and it’s ugly. So what’s the diff?

mae
Member

Yep.

Nick Sullivan
Member

I hope to God Biden wins big in SC and can make this a race. We are so headed off a cliff with the Pope-Stalker that it depresses the hell out of me. When I think of the dozens of our excellent House Democrats who won in purple districts having to jet-pack away from this finger-wagging blowhard, it frustrates me to no end.
“Not me – us!”
Could there be more absurd slogan when applied to this guy? The guy who said the other day, “The Democratic establishment will not stop us”? It’s a wonder he didn’t say ‘Democrat.’

Bareshark
Guest

Respectfully, Nick, chill the eff out. We’re a long way from the wrapup of all this and the polling averages (NOT the individual polls themselves, which is where reporting stupidly goes wrong) has been giving it to Uncle Joe consistently. Bernie is stupidly thinking there’s no difference between the DNC and RNC in terms of its ability to handle outsiders. I look forward to a rude awakening for him.