Yeah, baby. Tomorrow shit finally gets real. The nation’s first primary! No more of that candy ass caucus shit, wandering around a gym for three hours while a bunch of guys with candidate yard signs scream in your ear. Now it’s democracy the old fashioned way. Go in, cast your vote, come out, collect your $20, and go home. At least that’s democracy the old fashioned way in Chicago.
Even if you believe the polling, and there’s no real reason not to, since they have plenty of practice at it in New Hampshire, there are still a couple of hinky little things that could happen in the New Hampshire voting tomorrow that could throw some monkey wrenches in some campaigns plans. And they’re things that are yniqye tio New Hampshire, at least for this go around.
The first thing is the turnout. As I wrote previously, the Democratic state chair has already said that he doesn’t expect a record turnout tomorrow, despite some early predictions to that effect. I believe him, after all, he employs and talks to people on the ground that should know this shit. But the turnout in New Hampshire might still be higher than expected tomorrow, and here’s why.
Tomorrow night is the Democrats night in the spotlight, at least in New Hampshire. And of you’re a Democrat, and you’re going to do something cool, then you know that you’re going to have Dipshit Donnie, right there over your shoulder, like your 6 year old brother. If you close your eyes, you can almost hear that whiny, petulant voice, Demmy! Mommy says I get to play with you guys, or we both have to go inside right now!
Now, His Lowness just spent three solid weeks basking in the glory of the spotlight all by himself, mostly surrounded by words like treason, bribery, extortion, and removal from office. You would think that he would be more than happy to lie fallow for a while, and let the Democrats hog the spotlight. But no, the Democrats are having a party on Tuesday night, so of course the Gate Crasher in Chief has to have a rally in New Hampshire on Monday night!
This could end up having unintended consequences. The Democrats have spent months in New Hampshire, dumping shit over Trump’s head at every opportunity. And yet ion the night when the shit dumping will reach its zenith, who shows up? Who else but the target. You think there may be some voters in southern New Hampshire who might wake up on Tuesday morning and paraphrase Robert Duvall in Apocalypse Now, I hate the smell of bullshit in the morning. It smells like…..Trump! Talk about a motivator to get out and vote!
The second thing that could cause a little hiccup in some campaigns strides is a little anomaly that is built into New Hampshire’s voting system. Most state primaries are closed primaries, you have to be a voter registered to the Democratic or Republican party to vote in the primary. But New Hampshire is an open primary. Independent and unaffiliated voters can come in, ask for a ballot, vote in the primary, and go back to being unaffiliated of independent when they’re done. Even Republicans can change affiliation on Tuesday, vote, and then change back.
Now, I’m not going to argue the pros and cons of open and closed primaries, that’s grist for another article. But it does hold the potential to put some surprising results on the results on Tuesday night. Because, if it’s a Democratic primary, naturally the majority of pollsters are going to be talking to registered Democratic voters to tabulate their polls. And considering the fact that 40%+ of New Hampshire are either independent or unaffiliated, that’s a shit load of people who aren’t being heard from in the polls. But they will be on Tuesday night.
Now, in no way am I trying to suggest that these voters may be trying to “fuck with” the Democratic primary, in fact exactly the opposite. If unaffiliated or independent voters are disenchanted with Trump, it is only natural that they would want to come out and express their preference for a candidate to vote for in November. And it is just as natural that a disaffected GOP voter would want to take advantage of the system to express a preference for an alternate candidate that they might be comfortable voting for in November. My point is that this potentially sizable block of unpolled voters will have an effect on the final vote counts tomorrow night that could be quite different from the final polls.
Here’s how I see this shaking out. There is no way that a crossover GOP voter would be caught dead voting for Bernie Sanders, he or she would rather stay home and sit the damn thing out, both now as well as in November. From what I’ve read and heard, the majority of unaffiliated and independent voters tend to be older than college age, mostly in their 30’s and beyond. This is pushing the edges of the envelope for Bernie’s popularity demographic. And Joe Biden broadcast from the debate stage a few nights ago that he fully expected to get his ass kicked tomorrow night, and sounding like a defeatist is not a way to get people to turn out to vote for you in droves.
Elizabeth Warren could get a little bump, but she finished far behind Sanders in Iowa, and the polling I’ve seen has her near double digits behind Sanders in the far left lane. Again, that lane is not a natural fit for a crossover GOP voter to occupy. I’m looking for Buttigieg and Klobuchar to significantly over perform from the current polling. The moderate progressive lane is the most natural fir for that particular block of voters. Buttigieg has a strong and effective ground game in New Hampshire, and has spent plenty of time there. And Klobuchar may well have had a breakout moment in the New Hampshire debate, at least according to the New Hampshire audience that Chris Hayes polled in his post debate show live from there.
If Buttigieg gets a significant enough bounce from these independent voters, it is not impossible to believe that he could pull of a shocker first place finish in New Hampshire to rival his strong showing in Iowa, which would likely earn him some hard second looks from voters in Nevada and South Carolina. And if Klobuchar can ride the perceived momentum from her debate performance into Tuesday, and end up in fourth place, ahead of Biden, that would be manna from heaven for her fund raising efforts, and might even signal that Biden won’t make it to South Carolina.And a strong enough showing by both of them may begin the phase of the vaunted “two horse race” for the moderate lane of the party.
I guess I’ve put you guys through enough for one sitting. But tomorrow night figures to be quite exciting, and hopefully without any of the angst and frustrations of last Monday night in Iowa. But the more you know, the more exciting it can be, and these are just a couple of things to keep an eye out for that you might not have noticed otherwise. Enjoy the show.
To know the future, look to the past.before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity of the 2016 GOP primary campaign, and the general election, to see how we got to where we are. Copies of President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange are available as e-books on Amazon, at the links above. Catch up before the upcoming release of the third book in the trilogy, President Evil III: All The Presidents Fen