As i was drifting off for a nap, I heard something that stuck with me through the nap, and when that happens, you know that you’re stick with that thought until you get to the bottom of it.
The New Hampshire Democratic state chair was being interviewed in New Hampshire ahead of Tuesday’s first primary. They were discussing the expected turnout on Tuesday, and the state chair said that from what he was hearing, and the rumblings on the ground, he didn’t expect to see a record turnout, like Iowa was predicting before it fell apart, but a more traditional turnout in line with 2008 and 2016.
And then he said something that knocked me on my ass (good thing it’s well padded!). He said that while everything he was hearing was that Democrats and independents are monolithic and passionate in their desire to see His Lowness gone, they just aren’t all that interested in the mechanics. Their mind set seems to be, I don’t care who, just give me a name, and I’ll vote for it.
That statement shocked me, but it just feels right, and it may explain quite a lot. Early state parties, as well as Democratic activists, have been predicting that outrage over Trump, and a passion to replace him, would fuel record turnout to the primary polls to take part in picking his replacement. But the turnout in Iowa shows, and the state chair of New Hampshire is predicting that, while the traditional base that turns out for the primaries may be intoxicated at picking Trump’s successor, nobody else is dropping their dinner forks and running out to the car.
If this is true, it explains what may well turn out to be a rather pastoral, mundane turnout for the Democratic primaries, but it’s also spelling trouble for a couple of the candidates. Biden has staked his candidacy on being the one who could put the coalition together to beat Trump in the heartland, but he’s on low to mid-teen numbers, and it was Buttigieg who won the most widely across major demographics in Iowa. And it’s bad news for Bernie Sanders, who has placed his electability argument on being the only one who can motivate a new army of voters to show up to blow Trump out of the water. And yet, turnout in Iowa was static, and Bernie logged only about 1/2 of what he got in 2016.
But there was also a silver lining in his drear pronouncement and prediction. And that was that while there may not be the expected enthusiasm for voters to use the primaries as a vehicle to show their opposition, the mood on the ground, at least in New Hampshire is every bit as violently opposed to Trump as it was in the 2018 midterms. So while Democratic and independent voters may not be particularly interested in who the Democrats choose to run against Trump, once they have a name, they’ll queue up around the block to vote for him.
So if you’re worried about a perceived lack of enthusiasm among Democratic primary voters to get rid of Trump, maybe hold off on that for a bit. After all, how many times have you sat in the living room and had the wife yell in, what do you want for dinner? and give you a half a dozen options, only for you to dully mumble back, I don’t care, whatever. And you know what? Whatever ends up on the table in front of you, you always stuff your face. Patience young padawan.
To know the future, look to the past.before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity of the 2016 GOP primary campaign, and the general election, to see how we got to where we are. Copies of President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange are available as e-books on Amazon, at the links above. Catch up before the upcoming release of the third book in the trilogy, President Evil III: All The Presidents Fen