We’re in the last days of 2019 and when the calendar flips over to 2020, predictions of who will prevail, both in the Democratic primary and in the general election in November will dominate the news. With that in mind, here’s the latest. An MSN poll indicates that if the election were held today, that Trump would lose to the Democratic candidate by eight points. PoliticusUSA:

In the new MSN Poll, the Democratic candidate gets 50% of the vote and Trump gets 42%. A potential reason why Trump is doing so poorly is that by a margin of 57%-31%, likely voters believe that the country is moving in the wrong direction.

Trump doesn’t understand that the direction of the country is not the stock market. Most Americans aren’t invested in the stock market and they don’t care what the market is doing. Voters remain most concerned about healthcare, and the tone of the country.

The most likely reason for Donald Trump losing the 2020 election has nothing to do with jobs, or the economy, or even impeachment. It’s Donald Trump. The mainstream press is not talking about the level of Trump fatigue in the country. Even Trump’s own supporters admit that the constant tweets and attacks and the president’s endless need for validation and drama are exhausting.

Now documentary film maker Michael Moore disagrees. What makes that startling is that Moore predicted Trump would win in 2016. Real Clear Politics:

In an interview with Amy Goodman of Democracy Now!, Michael Moore said if the election were held today that President Trump would win a second term. However, Moore predicted the Democratic candidate for president would win the popular vote count by 4 to 5 million people.

Moore warned the “problem” is support for Trump in the Midwest has not gone down by “one inch” and that Trump voters are “even more rabid” than before because they are afraid he may lose.

“I think if the election were held today,” Moore said of a Trump victory. “Hillary won by 3 million popular votes. I believe whoever the Democrat is next year is going to win by 4 to 5 million popular votes. There’s no question in my mind that people who stayed home, who sat on the bench, they’re going to pour out, in California, New York and — you know, but also in Texas and whatever, I mean, places that Trump will probably win, but, yeah, there’s going to be a much higher percentage of people voting against him.”

It’s hard to believe that everybody who voted for Donald Trump is still rabidly in favor of him, when the Washington Post reports farmers in Trump country having to go on food stamps to survive.

When Anne and her husband, Andy, took over his parents’ 305-acre dairy farm in 2013, they made a good living. But years of falling milk prices, complicated by President Trump’s trade wars, have left the couple nearly $200,000 in debt.

Farmers around the country are struggling to pay for basics like groceries and electricity as farm bankruptcies rise and farm debt hits a record high. Calls from farmers in financial crisis to state mediators have soared by 57 percent since 2015.

“We’re supposed to be feeding the world, and we can’t even put food on our own table,” Anne said.

She has had less and less money for groceries each month, until one day in October when there was hardly any food in the house, and she started to investigate options she never would have considered before, like food stamps and food pantries.

If farmers like these can vote for Trump a second time, when it’s clearly against their own best interests to do so, I will be completely amazed — but that doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen. Get used to this ping pong game of why Trump will win, why he will lose, because we’re going to have eleven months of it. A few facts are unassailable, however: the economy may still be sound now, but more of this trade war madness, and it will tank. Plus, we cannot afford to lose any more foreign markets and we most certainly cannot afford to erode any more foreign alliances. Donald Trump is a threat to this nation’s interests, both domestic and foreign, and four more years of him will be disastrous.

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20 Comments on "New Poll Has Trump Losing By 8 Points If Election Were Held Today"

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Tin woman1
Guest

The back and forth is depressing. I avoid it like as much as possible. All I can do is \vote and work to help others vote.

Bareshark
Guest

The press have got nothing else to talk about until Congress is back in session and they want to keep eyeballs engaged until then. Keep that in mind when the despair threatens to set in.

p j evans
Member

They’ve got Himself’s tweets.

Bareshark
Guest
As time has gone on, I’ve found Michael Moore less and less trustworthy as a fount of wisdom. Do recall that he predicted Obama’s defeat in 2012 and completely got the character of the Columbine shooters wrong to serve a worthy agenda by dishonest means (to wit, those shooters were actually bullies, NOT the bullied, with a taste for Nazi-ganda who spelled out their plans in a school project, something Moore refuses to acknowledge to this day). On a more practical level, it’s worth pointing out that Trump lost by such slight percentages in 2016. The Electoral College will tell… Read more »
elna benoit
Guest

We need to dump the electoral college. It violates the concept of one American = one voter.

Bareshark
Guest

So it does, Elna…a worthy addition to the post-Trump cleanup list.

Joseph
Guest
Oh, for pity’s sake. The Electoral College does NOT violate that concept. YOUR vote is not lost any more than if the President were elected directly by the popular vote. And, what EXACTLY do you propose should happen when a candidate fails to win an outright majority (50% + 1) of the vote? Hmm? Should the candidate who wins a PLURALITY of the vote be declared the winner, even if the candidate only received 48.2% as Hillary did in 2016? Or, what about a plurality of just 43% as Bill Clinton got in 1992; Bill got 370 electoral votes in… Read more »
Bareshark
Guest

Well, since you decided to go there, Joseph, what would YOU propose as an alternative?

keenan
Member
I can’t understand your logic. You seem to be arguing a false dilemma. You rejected the solution of electing presidents with the popular vote because it isn’t perfect, even though the current Electoral College system is intolerably unfair as it distorts the popular will to such an extreme that it has become common for the winner of the popular vote to lose the election, even though he/she may have won by millions of popular votes, and this distortion is getting worse over time. It is bizarre that you apparently believe that a system in which a candidate can win the… Read more »
CAZ
Guest

Very interesting, Keenan. Thank you

p j evans
Member

I’d start be removing all the “faithless elector” laws at the state level, so they *could* vote against the candidates like Himself.

Concinnity
Guest

Given the damage he’s doing to the country, and everyone’s lives, all I can say is, only 8 points?

The fairness doctrine and truth in media has to come back.

Bareshark
Guest

Friendly reminder: not everyone is as engaged as we are. Next year’s poll on Election Day will be the real tell.

keenan
Member

Here’s the thing. Without knowing the Electoral College breakdown by state, it is virtually meaningless to talk about a national 8 point margin. Trump can still win the Electoral College even if he loses the popular vote by 8 points. And that’s before considering voter suppression and all the other dirty tricks and shenanigans the Rethuglicans are guarenteed to be planning.