Hey! The Perfectly Not Needed Thing Just Happened!

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This is not the way to be greeted back, innocently watching Morning Joe, slurping raisin bran, sipping caffeine, and out of the blue confronted by the ultimate “bracket-buster” presidential candidate, Michael Bloomberg.

Just what this race needed, another billionaire far to the right of the mainstream Democratic party.

It is true, Bloomberg is not Donald Trump, and so he has that going for him, yes. But, in this time of piercing polarization, the one and only time we might have had hope that a true progressive could win both the Democratic nomination and possibly the presidency, it would have been on this occasion.

We will have enough difficulty beating Trump.

Bloomberg is starting on the Democratic side, having to file paperwork to make it in the Democratic primary in Alabama. I suppose that makes some sense, if you ignore the fact that he’s been a Republican most of his life, and has never held office as a Democrat. Most of my Republican friends would disagree with labeling Bloomberg a Republican. That is fine, they are in a better position than me, to define “Republicans.” But that leads to the next logical conclusion, when neither party claims a person, what spot does that candidate most naturally occupy? The independent.

The worry, obviously, is that Bloomberg is testing the waters on the Democratic side to ultimately end-up in a three-way race as the independent. In that scenario, Donald Trump wins the next election going away. The biggest gift one could award Trump is a viable independent “moderate” to split the “non-Trump vote” and allow the firm Trump base to stay solidified.

Many of us have been too reliant upon approval ratings and polls demonstrating Trump being underwater by 10 to 12 points nationally and down one or two points against Biden in the purple states. It allowed us to walk around believing ourselves “ahead” in the polls. But, no matter the approval ratings or polls, a year out, and even with a possible impeachment proceeding coming, the biggest predictive factor in any incumbency race, is the economy, and to this point, the economy has remained strong. Thankfully.

It is exceedingly difficult to defeat an incumbent in a good economy. Trump is not a popular president. At no point has he even enjoyed the approval rating over 50%. He has a base that sits anywhere between 38 and 46% of the nation, and they are firm in their support to the point of hopelessness. There is a middle that is largely apolotical and wants to be left alone, and then there are Democrats, learning to tie our shoes. If the election comes down to Trump, with a good economy, a progressive Democratic candidate, and Michael Bloomberg, Trump wins. Laughing his ass off at how it all aligned again.

Were the race to be simply Bloomberg versus Trump, I just don’t know. He would get lots of “independents” and most Democrats. But there would hardly be a surge of voters rushing out in excitement to vote “Bloomberg!”

A lot of people in this nation are going to be attracted to a candidate like Bloomberg. This person can “make a statement” in not voting for Trump, but be “safe” in avoiding a progressive Democratic woman, or man.

IF Bloomberg won the Democratic nomination and won the election, he would be fine in a parallel universe where every politician in Washington DC suddenly transformed to the political “nothingness” of Michael Bloomberg. He could make the trains run on time (probably very well). pass budgets, actually appoint people to positions, and bring some people back together.

Seeing as how we don’t live in that universe, Michael Bloomberg would get exactly nothing done. I doubt Michael Bloomberg can name three things he wants to get done. I suspect the thing he most knows is that he wants to be president, and Trump is vulnerable.

This is not a welcome development. I see it as rather ominous. Many people have underestimated Michael Bloomberg throughout his life, to their detriment. and many of us have underestimated just how difficult it will be to beat an incumbent president in a good economy. Tough stuff.

****

Peace,

 

Jason

 

jmiciak@yahoo.com and on Twitter @MiciakZoom

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15 Comments on "Hey! The Perfectly Not Needed Thing Just Happened!"

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Bareshark
Guest
I think you’re missing something here, Jason. The fact that somebody like Bloomberg is filing to run in the Democratic primary seems like a clear signal on what future he thinks there is for the GOP. To wit, there isn’t one. A lot of rich guys are ready to jump ship for the Dems because it’s become impossible to do business–even arguably criminal business–with the GOP. Mostly, I also see this as a reaction to the slow motion flameout of Joe Biden and steady rise of Liz Warren. Had Biden got his act together a bit more, I’m certain Bloomberg… Read more »
p j evans
Member

I was encouraged by the reaction over at the mothership: people were asked where they’d rank him against the rest of the D candidates, on a scale from 1 to lots (with 1 the highest), and he was scoring in “lots”.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/11/7/1897950/-Poll-What-Rank-Would-You-Put-Michael-Bloomberg-In-Your-List-of-Candidates

Bareshark
Guest

What other reasonable reaction is there? He’s starting late, has nothing to recommend to him (Biden has the bland, out of touch guy vote locked up) and is a billionaire running in a party increasingly hostile to billionaires.

anastasjoy
Member

Exactly. I just don’t see what he brings to the race. The people who think this is a good thing are mostly pointing to his advocacy for gun control — a position virtually everyone in the field has not just adopted but is extremely aggressive on. As with Steyer on climate change, he should just be satisfied and call his work done, not run for president.

p j evans
Member

He could donate the money he’ll never be able to spend to useful charities – like Doctors Without Borders and World Kitchen.

anastasjoy
Member

Honestly, I don’t think that will happen. These guys want to official seal of a party nomination; they don’t want to run outside the system, and build their own party organization from the ground up. Look how quickly Howard Shultz disappeared. Unless you are a nutbag like Ross Perot you’re probably going to look at it and go “waste of time.”

anastasjoy
Member

This whole “Biden isn’t doing the job Bloomberg gets in” makes zero sense to me. Whether Bloomberg is in or out, Biden is still one of the frontrunners, but if he gets in, he pulls some votes from Biden — not enough so HE will be the candidate, but perhaps enough so Elizabeth Warren IS. She’s the main beneficiary of his getting in the Democratic primary. He’s certainly not going to draw any votes from HER.

Liz
Guest

I’m not happy that he’s running. I’m hoping he will be discouraged early and drop out. As for party affiliation, he’s got a flexible history. What I do believe is that he is smart enough to know that he would be a spoiler if he eventually ran an independent campaign. He knows tRump is a con man, and I don’t believe he’d want to be the cause of re-electing him. I want to be realistic and hopeful.

p j evans
Member

He’ll go over like Schulz and Steyer: “yes, and?”
We need another billionaire white guy running like we need more holes in our heads.

anastasjoy
Member
OK, so Trump is underwater and frankly, it’s a bad economy for most of us. It’s not all that dire — he’s virtually unable to get reelected. So Bloomberg running as an independent would be a lifeline for Trump. Running as a Democrat he’s just going to be Tom Steyer with much less progressive and compelling economic ideas. I think a lot of people on our side are overestimating the pull of a blah middle-of-the-road old white man who yeah, ok, is great on gun issues and climate change as I’ve been hearing all day — but so are ALL… Read more »
redheadedgammy
Member

This news makes me sick to my stomach. Why can’t these rich jerks put their egos in the freaking closet and stop trying to run the Country?

Cynthia L Feaster
Guest
Bloomberg is just like trump and in many ways worst; just ask those New Yorkers who lived under 12 years of his money grabbing self-enriching racist elitist regime as mayor. HE WAS HORRIBLE!!!!! Bloomberg and his minions destroyed NYC public schools- thoroughly. We are still not fully recovered from his schemes to dismantle quality education especially in the Black and Latino districts. He destroyed NYC Housing Authority and today it suffers still from underfunding. Bloomberg cut all kinds of city services yet he and his minions were making huge 6 figure salaries at the public’s expense. He refused to negotiate… Read more »