An alternate theory on Iran that nobody is looking at.

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Hey, we’re lost. But at least we’re making good time.   Yogi Berra

Right now, the whole situation in the Middle East is starting to look like a full blown, no holds barred, don’t-tell-mama mess.Not only is Iran enriching uranium again, in direct violation of the JCPOA, but by all appearances, albeit it appearances with a pyramid block sized grain of salt hanging from its neck, Iran just took a sucker punch at some Saudi Arabian oil refineries. And our current President, as well as his national security, intelligence, and diplomatic advisers should be piling out of a shoe box sized Volkswagon in the middle of the center ring.

There are as many various scenarios for the action as there are “experts” and pundits to espouse them. Iran did it to strengthen their negotiating hand for easing oil sanctions. Iran did it out of furious desperation over the crippling inflation from the restored US sanctions. Iran did it to test a weak US President whom they have come to suspect has a spine made out of silly putty. Who knows? And at this point, when we are on the brink of a regional conflict that could cause not only global panic, but a global recession due to an oil shortage, who cares?

But all of these scenarios, as well as every other one I have heard, all lay the blame solely and entirely at the feet of Iran. And regardless of their reasons, if Iran is “going rogue,” this is an incredibly risky move for them. The lack of international US leadership aside, if Iran causes a serious oil disruption with a conflict, European and Asian countries will have no choice but to rally together to protect their oil lifelines. And this would inevitably lead to the destruction of the current Iranian regime, regardless of what comes afterwards. The Iranians may be many things, but they’re not bone stupid, that’s Trump’s job on the world stage. If they’re willing to take a risk like this, I find it impossible to believe that there isn’t a “silent partner” in there somewhere.

Whenever I come across a situation that seems to lack sense and cohesion, I like to look at it through the eyes of an investigator. And whenever any qualified, competent investigator is presented with a possibly criminal act, the first two words that come to his or her mind are who benefits There are actually very few senseless crimes in this world. The reasoning and motive may not always be readily apparent, nor may they actually make much sense to a sane person when they are uncovered, but there almost always is a motive present.

And when I look at the current situation in the Middle East, and I remove Iran from the equation, or at least minimize them, and I ask myself that question “Who benefits?”, only one possible suspect comes immediately to mind. And that prime suspect is Vladimir Putin.

NOw, hear me out, because it makes perfect sense when you look at in the light of only facts that we already have before us. Putin has been in bed with Tehran for years now, sliding them arms, and giving the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and their proxy militias free reign and support in helping to prop up Assad in Syria. That continued support would create staging areas for Iran’s troops to run offensive and defensive operations against opposing troops in a general conflict.

There is nothing that Vlad the Imp would love to see more than most of, if not all of the European Union, as well as the United States, embroiled in a protracted and bloody ground war with Iran. And Putin is in a unique position to provide political cover for Iran, both by using Russia’s veto power in the UN Security Council to stop any direct UN action, as well as ensuring that whether it’s because of hookers with weak bladders, or laundered Russian rubles, Trump will block any concerted congressional efforts to interfere with Russia.

But again, when you look at any possible criminal activity, the question is who benefits? And other than European instability, as well as a possible constitutional crisis in the United States, how do Putin and Russia benefit from illicitly aiding Iran in a war in the Middle East.

Actually, the answer to that one is easy when you just think about it for a moment, and it’s exactly the same benefit that Iran stands to gain. Oil. It’s just simple. Russia is a major oil producing country, but right now most of their oil is just sitting there, unable to be sold due to international sanctions put on after Putin came a calling unannounced into the Ukraine, and annexed Crimea. Russia’s economy is in shambles, and a nice shot in the arm from oil revenue would be the perfect elixir for fiscal health.

If Iran hits more oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, and hey, fuck it, in-for-a-penny,-in-for-a-pound, strikes refineries in Kuwait and the UAE and oil production is reduced by say, 20-25%, think the European Union might rethink the wisdom of their oil sanctions against Russia? Think Japan and the EU might apply a little friendly pressure on the US to dump that silly sanction that bars Russia’s half a trillion deal with Exxon-Mobil? And think that Putin himself may add a little fuel to that fire, say with an e-mailed gif of a particular hotel room in Moscow, or with a copy of a draft letter, telling Deutsche Bank to open up its files for those pesky House congressional committees?

When you come right down to it, most crimes in the world are committed for one of two reasons, either passion or greed. And this is a dream scenario for Putin. With almost no personal or physical risk to himself or Russia, his tacit backing of Iran could be the key to unlocking billions of dollars that would inevitably flow into the Russian treasury, and from there to the pockets of Putin and his oligarch brethren.When you ask the simple question who benefits regarding Iran’s near suicidal power play in the Middle East right now, there is only one man who has both the power, as well as the resources to take advantage of this once-in-a-lifetime moment. Trump’s everlasting BFF, Vladimir Putin. Here endeth the lesson.

To know the future, look to the past. before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity of the 2016 GOP primary campaign, and the general election, to see how we got to where we are. Copies of  President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange  are available as e-books on Amazon, at the links above. Catch up before the upcoming release of the third book in the trilogy, President Evil III: All The Presidents Fen

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10 Comments on "An alternate theory on Iran that nobody is looking at."

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Jason Miciak
Member

Well, that’s better than I could do yesterday. It might well be that Putin no longer gives a shit about Iran, knowing he’s got Trump by the knots and they can simply order Iran around a bit or tell they that Russia will simply help the U.S. (recall Trump’s bro-shake with MBS) in defeating Iran unless they do a little “favor.”

p j evans
Member
As people with experience in the Middle east are pointing out, none of this seems to have shown up on anyone’s radar, literally. There are tracking installations all over that region, and no one saw anything?? Pull the other leg, you might get music. [And as people at emptywheel noted, there was damned little damage for a missile attack. You would expect much more damage, plus vehicles and people out assessing it, and so on. None of that. And how do you punch holes in tanks, very small neat holes, with missiles, and at the same time not have them… Read more »
Corey
Guest

I seriously doubt it’s Iran. For one, the Gulf let alone Hormuz is lit up like Christmas with Aegis Combat System radar from the US Navy. If those drones came from Iran, we’d have seen White House shitkickers on the weekend shows with radar tracks and clear evidence, not allegations.

Queenie
Guest

I don’t claim to be any kind of expert in anything, but as soon as this happened I thought that someone is setting Iran up to take the fall.

Nancy M Parker
Guest

All we seem to have is drones that were built in Iran. So what? Does every attack using American-built weapons “originate” in America? The evidence for blaming Iran is ludicrously weak.

Janet Kilb
Guest

You r spot on.

Darrel
Member
I’m a little curious … most of these, play it by ear, internationally planned happenings, leave huge trails of pig dung behind, if Trump knows even the least little thing about a, “special”, plan from some other country, there is a better then 70% chance he will blab the details to just about anyone that will give him a minute of attention … our intelligence system is under attack, by none other than the wizard of ahs in the Oval office … the noise Putin would generate from his position is minimal as stated here, just needs to sit back… Read more »