Like a pebble in a pond, circles within circles.

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Of all of the laws I’ve ever known or heard of (or broken), by dint of my spending so much of my recent life immersed in the fetid cesspool that is Donald Juan Trump, the law I most find myself confronted with these days is the law of unintended consequences. And oh, boy, this time I found one where the political sentence is damn near capital punishment.

Trump’s biggest problem isn’t in being a political ignoramus, we’ve had plenty of those before, including some who were even rather successful, for a variety of reasons. Trump’s real problem is that he is such an arrogant, abusive son of a botch, that even political operatives whose only qualification was helping elect a 7th grade class president don’t want to work for him. And that political incompetence among the people who have to do the practical “heavy lifting” is going to kill him, mark my words.

As you are all already aware, due to the crepe paper thinness of the special snowflake fee-fee’s of Glorious Bleater, the states of South Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, and Kansas are actively taking steps to quash having the office of President of the United States appear on the GOP primary ballots in those states this year. This is being done for no better reason than to protect Trump’s fragile ego from anything less than a Putin style election result. But here come those unintended consequences again, thundering in like a herd of elephants into a Victoria’s Secrets fashion show. And if you’re like me, you want as many GOP state parties as possible to follow suit.

Primary elections are the ultimate example of “base” politics. On each side, only the 25% or so of voters in that party who are most passionate about the issues of the day bother to show up and vote, thus the adage, “veer hard left or right in the primaries, then tack to the middle in the general election.” The practical result is that the two ballot mice that about 140 million Americans will vote for in November are actually chosen by about 40 million voters total in the primaries.

But primaries are critically important processes, not only to the party in choosing a candidate, but to the actual candidates’ campaigns, for two reasons. First, having the candidate chow in the weeks before the primary for rallies and appearances generates enthusiasm for the candidate, enthusiasm that the campaign will carry over into the fall. And second, it is a tutorial for the candidates campaign, where are they over performing, where are they effective, and most importantly, where do they need to improve their message to reach more voters?

Let’s just look at South Carolina as an example. As the first majority minority state on the Democratic side, all of the Democrats are going to be flooding the state, making multiple speeches in a day, field testing their slogans and speeches, and polling the living shit out of the place to see what’s working, and what’s not, and how to improve it. This is going to engender an insane amount of interest and enthusiasm, not only for the individual candidates, but for the Democratic base as a whole. and the messaging lessons learned in the primary will be put to fine use in the general election.

But what of the Republican party side of the equation? Since there is not going to be a GOP primary for president there, there is no sane reason for His Lowness to show up there to campaign, it’s a waste of money, and we all know how the reverse King Midas feels about wasting money. And even if Trump does show up to rally, so what? It’s only gong to be the usual kitty litter box of supporters, with the same empty seats covered up by large hanging curtains. Nothing to inflame the passions, or stir the souls.

And the two most critical parts. One, without competition, and without rallies, there is no way for the campaign to do any real, substantive polling to find out what messages are or are not resonating, so that they can take corrective action to improve his polling. and two, every Democratic candidate is going to spend quite a bit of their time dumping a bucket of shit right over Trump’s fluffy orange head, all of which is going to garner nightly local news coverage, with absolutely no counter point of view or retaliation coming from The Mango Messiah personally. The Democratic candidates are going to get a free pass.

Trump’s delicate ego is going to kill his campaign. Because right now, Trump needs competition the way I need new eyes. He has spent three years making meaningless campaign rally speeches, with nothing at stake, and he needs the competition to get his juices flowing, and to knock the ring rust off before the general election. But more importantly, Trump’s campaign needs effective polling on his messaging. Trump’s messaging is flailing, he’s having trouble now even holding at 40%, and that won’t cut it. Instead of competing and learning, he’s skipping Nevada, which he narrowly lost, and which sent Dean Heller to the elephant burial grounds, Arizona, which he narrowly won, but which rejected Martha McSally for Senate, who has to run again this year, and Kansas, which elected a Democratic Governor in 2018, as well as a Native American, lesbian, MMA boxer to congress.

When Trump stole the electoral college in 2016, it only confirmed in his own, overblown mind that all he needed was his force of presence, and his divisive, racist bullshit to win. But just like pitchers run into trouble the second time through the line up, when batters have adjusted to their stuff, the Democrats now have Trump’s past pitches to learn to zero in on. But Trump has no idea of which pitches are still effective until he throws them to batters. God, I hope the rest of the state GOP’s cancel their primaries, so he gets nice and rusty out there in the bullpen!

To know the future, look to the past. before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity of the 2016 GOP primary campaign, and the general election, to see how we got to where we are. Copies of  President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange  are available as e-books on Amazon, at the links above. Catch up before the upcoming release of the third book in the trilogy, President Evil III: All The Presidents Fen

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6 Comments on "Like a pebble in a pond, circles within circles."

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Bareshark
Guest

I actually said almost exactly the same thing when Ursula wrote about this last week, Murf. A dark way to interpret this is that Trump and/or the GOP is expecting Russia to save their collective ass again (see recent actions with the FEC, though I lack Jason’s conspiratorial take on it). But it could well be the killer combo of laziness, overconfidence and entitlement that’s been in play from Inauguration Day on.

p j evans
Member

And now Meadows and Cotton are trying to get a law passed that would effectively put the president above the law by gutting judicial review.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/9/11/1884920/-Mark-Meadows-and-Tom-Cotton-introduce-bill-to-Neuter-the-Federal-Judiciary-putting-Trump-above-law

Bareshark
Guest

Makes me glad Dems are in charge of the House right now.

Joseph
Guest
I wish Hillary would (snarkily, of course) congratulate both Meadows and Cotton for their efforts by saying that she would welcome their effort if she were the President. Of course, she could then lower the boom by saying something like, “Of course, if I were President, the two of you would be spending virtually every waking hour leading some sort of investigation of some incredibly trivial matter–such as failing to dot the “i”s in my name during signing ceremonies–that would only be finally resolved in the courts.” And, naturally, every GOP snowflake would be whining about Hillary “injecting” herself in… Read more »