“Facts don’t lie. The numbers don’t lie.” Science doesn’t lie.” People keep talking about all of the things that never lie. Maybe that’s why they’re like sunlight to a truth vampire like Donald Trump. Or maybe there’s another reason why he hates some of them, especially numbers that don’t lie.

Back in 2016, President Bone Spurs notched 62,984,828 votes, which was good enough for 46.1% of the vote. However that fell 3 million votes and 2% shy of Hillary Clinton’s vote totals nationwide. However, when you factor in those 77,000 clueless wonders spread across WI, MI, and PA, it was enough to hand him the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in the electoral college. His Lowness absolutely fucking hates those numbers, but he doesn’t bother to try to deny them, falling back on the conspiracy theory drivel of millions of illegal immigrants that cost him the popular vote tally.

Fast forward to the midterms of 2018. Forget about flipping the House, or losing ground in the Senate, forget all of that other shit. The critical takeaway in 2016 was that even though it was an unusually high turnout for a midterm election, it was not a Presidential year turnout crowd. And yet, in 2018, the Democrats garnered more than 6 million votes than the Republicans did.

Here’s where I’m going with this. In 2016, Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 4 million votes, which assayed out to a 2% difference, she won 48-46. Oddly enough, that 46% that Trump got in 2016 was the high water mark so far for his presidency, and there’s nothing to indicate that this is going to turn around in the next 15 months.

So, Trump hit his high water mark of 46% in 2016, and lost by 3 million votes, or 2% points. As we speak, Donald Trump is hovering right at about 42-43% in most major polls. Guess what? The Democrats won nationwide in 2018 by more than 6 million votes. If 3 million votes in 2016 was good enough for a 2% win, then logic would say that an extra 3 million votes in 2018 should assay out to another 2% points, right? And if 46-42 = 4%, than that dovetails almost perfectly with the difference in Democratic votes in 2018, 4% points, and where Trump is in the polls right now, 42%, or 4% points lower.

Trump loves to boast that his unshakable base earned him the White House in 2016. That’s nothing more than the usual Trumpwellian bullshit we’ve all come to know and loathe. In fact, Trump cobbled together that measly 77,000 votes in those three states with a combination of “soft” GOP voters who held their noses, and disaffected independents and Obama Democratic voters who voted for change. That’s how Trump got to 46% in the first place. But i the last 2 1/2 years, Trump’s obnoxious behavior, and reprehensible policies have driven that 4% of voters away from him like a bunch of spring lambs when the Judas ewe farts in front of the barn door. And Trump has already signaled that he has no intention of doing anything over the next 15 months to woo them back, firm in his delusion that his “base” is enough to get the job done.

Remember, Trump won in 2016 by 77,000 votes spread across 3 states, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. In Michigan alone, Gretchen Witmer won the Governors race easily, by more than 400,000 votes or almost 10%. In Wisconsin, Senator Tammy Baldwin won by almost 300,000 votes or 11%. And in Pennsylvania, Senator Bob Casey won by more than 559,999 votes, or 13%, Now granted, these are not Presidential cycle numbers, but the implication is clear. In every one of those three states, there was a single Democratic statewide candidate that won by more votes him or herself than Trump won all three states by in 2016 to steal the White House.

I hope that wasn’t too Byzantine, I tried to keep the tracks as straight as possible so that you wouldn’t think that I was engaged in “creative accounting.” But it may show one of the reasons why Trumpenstein continues to wage such a vicious jihad against the facts. After all, what’s that old phrase. Ummm. Oh, Yeah! “Sometimes, the truth fucking hurts!

Accreditation:

There are a lot of numbers and percentages in the article above, and I just wanted to make sure that you didn’t think I just pulled them out of my ass, like Glorious Bleater does. The Presidential 2016 tallies and percentages came from Wikipedia, and the state tallies and percentages came from Politico’s state by state breakdown of the 2018 midterm results.

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2 Comments on "Numbers don’t lie."

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rory darjiit
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Yes, I think those numbers all point to the conclusions you’ve made. With questions that will affect how 2020 shakes out: 1. How much of the 2018 result was from typical “midterm swing,” meaning that the party in power loses more votes to staying at home than the party out of power? That unknown quantity could be helpful to Trump when those voters return to polls in 2020. 2. How much was due to the realignment that is ongoing and does this realignment stick? Non-college whites (racial conservatives) have more or less completed their 2008-2016 move to the GOP. College… Read more »