August 14 was the worst day of the year for the stock market. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 800 points, or 3% and that makes for a net loss of almost 7% in the past three weeks. Additionally, the inverted yield curve has been flashing for weeks, and it has been a reliable predictor of impending recessions for the past 50 years. The last time it manifested was in 2007, in the ramp up to the 2008 housing bubble bursting. The inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term bonds, which offer higher rates of return, are passed over in favor of shorter-term bonds. The yield curve inverts when yields on the shorter-term debt exceeds those on longer maturity debt. It is a classic sign that people don’t trust their government. Washington Post:
This phenomenon, which suggests investor faith in the economy is faltering, has preceded every recession in the past 50 years.
“The stars are aligned across the curve that the economy is headed for a big fall,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “The yield curves are all crying timber that a recession is almost a reality, and investors are tripping over themselves to get out of the way.”
Now here’s Donald Trump’s take on the matter.
..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 14, 2019
Yeah, that “crazy inverted yield curve!” What a silly thing that is. If only Jerome Powell would get his act together, everything would be simply dandy. Meanwhile, the rats are running down the ropes, because they know what’s coming.
Several White House officials have become concerned that the economy is weakening faster than expected, but they are not working on proactive plans to change its course. The Treasury Department has had an exodus of senior advisers in recent months, and the White House just announced a replacement for its chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers….
The Twitter posts reflected a growing anxiety within the White House about problems in the economy, which many advisers believe will determine whether the president wins reelection. Just a few hours earlier, Trump offered a contradictory assessment, saying the inverted yield curve was a good sign because there was “Tremendous amounts of money pouring into the United States. People want safety!”
,,,the escalating trade war between Trump and Chinese leaders has stopped many businesses from investing. And there are signs that the large tariffs he has placed on many Chinese imports is costing U.S. businesses and consumers billions of dollars.
“The big concern is around trade,” said Dan Ivascyn, group chief investment officer at Pimco. “The longer we remain in limbo, the more damage to the global economy.”
Small wonder #TrumpRecession is trending on Twitter.
On Twitter, Wajahat Ali, a contributing op-ed writer for the New York Times, rattled off several of Trump’s failed promises that preceded fears of another crash.
“Trump promised to eliminate the debt in four years; he increased it,” Ali tweeted. “He promised to win the easy trade war with China; he didn’t. He promised Mexico would pay for the wall; it won’t. His tax cuts were going to trickle down and spur the economy; it didnt. #TrumpRecession.”
"Trump came along and deregulated everything, weakening the post-Great Recession laws meant to curb Wall Street abuses, and authorizing a massive tax cut for the wealthiest Americans without paying for a cent of it." #TrumpRecession https://t.co/D8FPONBsf3
— Swing Left (@swingleft) August 14, 2019
ICYMI: Trump accuses China of currency manipulation because their currency devalued in the wake of his tariffs. However this accusation has no basis in fact. Instead, Trump's trade war only increases the likelihood of a recession #TrumpRecession https://t.co/bcWX0FpprZ
— The Real News (@TheRealNews) August 14, 2019
The #TrumpRecession is gonna be YUGE. The ‘good’ news is that the 1% won’t be affected that much – they’ve been able to stow away their windfall from the #TaxScam to soften the blow. 😐https://t.co/cAPGFot8YA
— Nick Knudsen 🇺🇸 (@DemWrite) August 14, 2019
The good thing about this is that an economic downturn will get Trump out of office. God knows I don’t want to see us go over an economic cliff ala 2008, but if it gets rid of Trump, it will be worth it. We’ve lived through a lot of recessions. I don’t think we can live through eight years of Trump. And remember: tough times don’t last, but tough people do.