Here are a few images to warm your heart. These show Trump’s approval numbers in all 50 states translated to electoral votes.

As you see, there has been a steady progression towards Trump losing in just the past few weeks. Now, before you start jumping up and down, and putting champagne on ice, bear in mind a couple of key points: 1. The map shows both Texas and Utah flipping blue. Before you believe that that is the case, I would be sure to check the weather report in Hell; 2. Counting on Florida to vote Democratic is a fool’s game. You’ll do better at roulette; 3. The poll cited is Civiqs, which is Markos’ poll. Markos also predicted that Hillary had a 95% chance of winning. Remember staring at that banner for months? It made a believer out of me and then election night I was harshly disabused of the notion, shall we say?

Now, I want to make it clear, I’m not taking a cheap shot at Markos. I was thrown off of his site for reasons best known to him and so be it. I merely point out some cold hard facts: 1. Don’t depend on Texas turning blue. That is the perennial Democratic wet dream and I’ve had it myself. 2. Utah is even more unlikely. Wave at the pigs going by your upstairs windows when that happens. Not to say it can’t, and nobody would love to see it more than me. Just remember that caveat emptor is always a good policy, especially in a political landscape that makes Alice in Wonderland look unremarkable. The dead last thing that we can afford to do as Democrats is believe that the election is in the bag — remember where that got us before?


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10 Comments on "Trump Will Get Clobbered In 2020 If You Translate Current Approval Numbers To Electoral Votes"

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Denis Elliott
I agree. Between election rigging of voter rolls & even actual vote tallies to an even greater amount of voter suppression (all these ICE activities are creating fear – mark my words there will be arrests in parking lots of polling locations on weekends when early voting starts) we will literally have to overwhelm the system like we did last fall. For those who have overlooked it our margin of victory in the National vote count for the House would have gotten us OVER a 70 member majority in that chamber – if not for the systemic and vicious gerrymandering… Read more »

β€œIt is very hard to predict, especially the future.”

Niels Bohr, later and similar, Yoggi Berra.

And then there’s the Trump Reality Distortion Field to contend with, let alone republican gerrymandering.


As cautious as I also am, I still live in hope of Hell freezing over come Election Night 2020. After all, past is not prologue, people are not content and there is a serious shortage of competence in the Trump ranks. It’ll probably be closer to a close victory if we get it but I’ll take it.


The odds 90 : 10 for Clinton the day of the election. Don’t fall for it


The odds were 90:10 for Clinton Election Day 2016 – don’t be fooled. The senate is more important than president dump

Predicting EC votes before the actual popular vote tally is in seems a classic example of counting eggs, not hatched chickens. IMO, there’s a slim chance we can take back the Senate, the Office of the Presidency, and expand the majority in the House, but given the facts that 1. SCOTUS is out of reach for a long time, 2. Russian interference is sure to be more virulent than ever, and 3. our voters may or may not be able to cast a vote and have it counted, it’s never been more important to register new voters and GOTV on… Read more »